Biggest Single Day Gain for DJIA!

[SunnyOne]

I'd also surmise that supply chains, driven by Adam Smith's invisible hand, are becoming more durable even as we speak.


Please explain the rationale for this comment? Thanks

 

[brewer12345]

Based on science. And facts.

Such as?

 

[ER Eddie]

Well, I'm glad to see the bounce. It relieves the anxiety I was feeling about the market just continuing to fall and fall. Maybe people were somewhat reassured by news over the weekend or thought the sell-off was a bit of an over-reaction. Or maybe it'll reverse course again tomorrow, who knows.

 

[USGrant1962]

? Isn't it #7 as a percentage basis, on that link you include.

I made that mistake too the first time I looked at it. The first set of tables is the highest point moves. They don't include many of the highest percentage moves from the past when the DOW was not 5 digits.

Scroll down for the complete percentage move tables.

 

[GenXguy]

Classic dead cat after a historically fast correction. Rate cuts don't cure viral pneumonia or destroyed supply chains. The outbreak is rapidly getting worse in the US and elsewhere. People are starting to ransack every retail store in some areas and a grocery trade organization suggested that members consider a number of steps including limiting how much individual customers can buy of high demand items. The equity market bounce today is not reflective of the real world, so far as I can tell.

That's basically my feeling. Based on the news, it just seems to be worse regarding COVID-19 since last Friday, and catching up on the news this evening simply confirms that. So, I suspect this is just a temporary increase and that we will soon see more drops as things continue to get worse.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Really? Let's break this hyperbole down.

"People are starting to ransack every retail store in some areas ...."

Evidence please?

The brewer12345 post above is the worst form of alarmism.

Scientists and governments are all over this. As to the former, the world's best and brightest scientists are on the case.

I'm standing by, waiting for live footage of retail establishments being ransacked.

Perhaps ransacked wasn't the best choice of words. However:

While this isn't yet in ransack territory, "the day is young". What happens when the supply chain is disrupted and no new stock comes into the stores? Then it becomes like a run on the bank.

Look, nobody wants that to happen (at least I hope not). But more and more things are sold out online (places like Amazon, Target, Walmart, Sam's Club) and doing some drive by's on the way home it just seemed like the super markets were awe busy for a late Monday afternoon (even given it is the beginning of a month).

 

[ziggy29]

Perhaps ransacked wasn't the best choice of words. However...

While this isn't yet in ransack territory, "the day is young". What happens when the supply chain is disrupted and no new stock comes into the stores? Then it becomes like a run on the bank.

Look, nobody wants that to happen (at least I hope not). But more and more things are sold out online (places like Amazon, Target, Walmart, Sam's Club) and doing some drive by's on the way home it just seemed like the super markets were awe busy for a late Monday afternoon (even given it is the beginning of a month).

Right now, things are selectively "ransacked". Though where I live now, on the northern Oregon coast (in a state where a few cases have been reported), the only things currently "out" are masks and hand sanitizer. As of earlier this afternoon, there is still plenty of TP on the shelves. There's even plenty of supplies to make your own hand sanitizer (it's trivial to do). All that said, yes, in the weeks to come there is substantial risk of more things being in short supply because of disruptions in the supply chain. But overall, right now, I can't say things are "ransacked" around here.

IMO: An abundance of precaution is in order. Maybe most people who are young and healthy have little more to fear than a somewhat bad case of the flu, but remember those who are elderly, who have compromised immune systems, who have pulmonary and cardiovascular conditions. They have a lot more at stake. For them, if not for you, please exercise caution. Don't panic, but also treat it seriously. "Ransacked" creates panic that is mostly unwarranted. But it's not the time for Pollyanna, either.

 

[brewer12345]

Really? Let's break this hyperbole down.

"People are starting to ransack every retail store in some areas ...."

Evidence please?

The brewer12345 post above is the worst form of alarmism.

Scientists and governments are all over this. As to the former, the world's best and brightest scientists are on the case.

I'm standing by, waiting for live footage of retail establishments being ransacked.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/gro...buying-as-coronavirus-causes-stockpiling.html

There is a developing panic at the retail level by people who have been told by the CDC to stockpile enough food and supplies for two weeks. The evidence is everywhere if you are looking for it. Grocery stores are seeing a big uptick in business. Costcos in some areas are being hit and in some places are running out of staple items (toilet paper seems to be a big one). You will have a hard time buying a bottle of hand sanitizer most places. Cold and flu meds are hard to come by. And so on. Stores are getting restocked regularly, but it sounds a lot to me like grocers and retailers are having a challenging time keeping up. I personally don't care all that much since I always have a stockpile of food and supplies, but I have been watching carefully to try to divine the immediate future.

I could point to plenty of other indicators, but something tells me your mind is made up. I hope you are right and all those best and brightest people who apparently couldn't figure out how to even test for the disease in the US figure out how to defeat it. I expect they will, eventually. In the meantime, we will live in interesting times.

 

[38Chevy454]

Ransacked is no different than when a big snow storm or hurricane or other severe weather is predicted. People buy out the bottled water, milk, eggs, and beer. All for a at worse 3-4 days of weather activity. The ransacking is not justified, but people do it all the time.
Back on topic, I was glad to see the increase. I am not timing the market, but it just feels better seeing the drop stop (for now).

 

[WyomingLife]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/gro...buying-as-coronavirus-causes-stockpiling.html
I could point to plenty of other indicators, but something tells me your mind is made up. I hope you are right and all those best and brightest people who apparently couldn't figure out how to even test for the disease in the US figure out how to defeat it. I expect they will, eventually. In the meantime, we will live in interesting times.

My mind isn’t made up. I am, however, a scientist. So I am still waiting for evidence of retail stores being ransacked, which is what you said was underway.

 

[brewer12345]

My mind isn’t made up. I am, however, a scientist. So I am still waiting for evidence of retail stores being ransacked, which is what you said was underway.

I just spent 90 minutes wrestling with a beaver carcass (holy cow they are fatty) so I am too tired to go dig up links. Do your own research. If you are happy with your head in the sand, more power to you.

 

[NW-Bound]

On Thursday of last week, 2/27, there was a report of panic buying at Costco in Honolulu.

On Sat 2/29, there were panic buying in the Seattle area and reports of empty store shelves when the news broke of virus cases at a nursing home.

Perhaps that flurry of buying activity has subsided and the stores have been able to restock.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here's a report today from an NBC affiliate station in Southern California.

As I mentioned elsewhere, I saw what I thought was a bit more activities at one particular Costco in Phoenix, but nothing like the above videos. Arizona however had only 1 case a few weeks ago, and the patient has fully recovered. He was also a "patient 0", meaning he brought back the virus from China after traveling there, and fortunately did not infect anyone else.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/costco-panic-buying-coronavirus/2321449/

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I witnessed a Costco sold out of water. I didn't need any, just noticed.

 

[WyomingLife]

I witnessed a Costco sold out of water. I didn't need any, just noticed.

We get our water from the tap.

And if that goes belly up, there is always the river down the way.

If our society is at a point where survival is dependent upon plastic containers from a retail establishment, we’ve regressed from the Neanderthals.

And some days, I think we have so regressed. The plastic is deleterious for the environment, too.

Life is great. We all have First World problems. Tomorrow will be better than today.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

I was very happy to see this big gain in the market. Now the Fed has to deliver that rate cut . I have no idea if a rate cut will help but the market expects one and it seemed to rally on such a possibility. It's unclear to me what kind of a rate cut we will get.

My guess is we will see .25 basis points. The market may not like that,{ it may want more} but it gives the Fed a little more room for further cuts in the immediate future as there is no telling what will happen in regards to the stock market and the events that influence it.

 

[BeachOrCity]

Is it market timing to act on actual information that any rational person would say would lower equity values?

As far as the direction of the market, there are two key things
1. Supply chains and the effect on manufacturing (bad and not getting better for a while)
2. Human behavior when the virus is prevalent in local geography. (No going out = less spending )


One doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist to see that these two things are very negative in the short term.

After today’s close the market is down like what, 7% from all time highs? Is this the right risk adjusted number?

Think back to late 1999 early 2000. Lots of earnings warnings. Lots of companies that were bleeding cash yet were worth billions. Should have been easy to spot that valuations would take a hit. I froze and did not adjust. But I saw it coming, I just did not react.

Think late 2007 and very early 2008. Conversation among friends that we “are already probably in recession”. Heck I was l outspoken shout the bubble with my own real estate beginning in 2005. Yet I froze and did not adjust my equities.

The government did not tell us we were in recession until December 2008 one year after it started and by any account too late to act.

Some call it market timing. Maybe it is. But to me.....

IS ACTING ON INFORMATION THAT ANY RATIONAL PERSON WOULD SAY WILL LOWER EQUITIES MARKET TIMING?

 

[MichaelB]

Ransack is not empty shelves, it’s stealing and destruction. That isn’t happening. At best we see some examples of panic buying, but even that is sporadic. This is not hurricane prep, the supply chain is in full force and empty shelves are being restocked.

 

[Andre1969]

? Isn't it #7 as a percentage basis, on that link you include.

I'm seeing #7 as 10/21/87, when the market gained 10.15%. Unless I'm looking at the wrong chart?

 

[SunnyOne]

Think back to late 1999 early 2000. Lots of earnings warnings. Lots of companies that were bleeding cash yet were worth billions. Should have been easy to spot that valuations would take a hit. I froze and did not adjust. But I saw it coming, I just did not react.

Think late 2007 and very early 2008. Conversation among friends that we “are already probably in recession”. Heck I was l outspoken shout the bubble with my own real estate beginning in 2005. Yet I froze and did not adjust my equities.

The government did not tell us we were in recession until December 2008 one year after it started and by any account too late to act.

This was me. This was my experience as well. I have learned from the pain. Over the past year or so, I have started to harvest gains. Nothing good lasts forever, or does it? Until last week, I felt like a fool sitting on all that cash.
Maybe I am still a fool, only time will tell...and yet, I have a new found respect for cash.
Aging has done that to me.

 

[latexman]

Good enough to take DW out for frozen custard after dinner.

Goodberry's? Wonderful stuff!

 

[Andre1969]

I just ran my numbers this morning. Looks like yesterday's bounce gave me back a good portion of my losses.

As of February 28, I was down about 6.78%, YTD. Now I'm only down about 3.93% YTD.


It looks a bit scarier if I measure from the 2/19 peak, where I was up about 4.7%.

Anyway, just eyeballing it (I'm too lazy to use a calculator ) looks like I got back about 40% of my YTD losses, and maybe 25% of my losses from 2/19.

I'm sure the market will bounce around some more, though, before we get through this. And then, it'll be smooth sailing, on to the next crisis!

 

[kgtest]

On points but not percent - though 5%+ ain’t a bad day. Not that it means the pullback is over, but might as well report the good with the bad. Good enough to take DW out for frozen custard after dinner.

2008 and 2018 were volatile as all getup comprising of half of the worst 20 days over 20 years.

and 11 of the 20 best days of past 2 decades. Not sure what total returns were those 2 years but lots of money to be made if you time the market right which is basically impossible looking at the randomness of those charts.

 

[ziggy29]

Looks like the Fed is reigniting the War on Savers.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

Did my Walmart grocery pickup yesterday and the pickup lot was a ghost town. Not sure what inside the store looked like but I was the only one in the pickup lot. That's never happened before.