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03-03-2020, 01:16 AM
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#41
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
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I was very happy to see this big gain in the market. Now the Fed has to deliver that rate cut . I have no idea if a rate cut will help but the market expects one and it seemed to rally on such a possibility. It's unclear to me what kind of a rate cut we will get.
My guess is we will see .25 basis points. The market may not like that,{ it may want more} but it gives the Fed a little more room for further cuts in the immediate future as there is no telling what will happen in regards to the stock market and the events that influence it.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
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03-03-2020, 02:33 AM
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#42
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 889
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Is it market timing to act on actual information that any rational person would say would lower equity values?
As far as the direction of the market, there are two key things
1. Supply chains and the effect on manufacturing (bad and not getting better for a while)
2. Human behavior when the virus is prevalent in local geography. (No going out = less spending )
One doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist to see that these two things are very negative in the short term.
After today’s close the market is down like what, 7% from all time highs? Is this the right risk adjusted number?
Think back to late 1999 early 2000. Lots of earnings warnings. Lots of companies that were bleeding cash yet were worth billions. Should have been easy to spot that valuations would take a hit. I froze and did not adjust. But I saw it coming, I just did not react.
Think late 2007 and very early 2008. Conversation among friends that we “are already probably in recession”. Heck I was l outspoken shout the bubble with my own real estate beginning in 2005. Yet I froze and did not adjust my equities.
The government did not tell us we were in recession until December 2008 one year after it started and by any account too late to act.
Some call it market timing. Maybe it is. But to me.....
IS ACTING ON INFORMATION THAT ANY RATIONAL PERSON WOULD SAY WILL LOWER EQUITIES MARKET TIMING?
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03-03-2020, 04:28 AM
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#43
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,518
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Ransack is not empty shelves, it’s stealing and destruction. That isn’t happening. At best we see some examples of panic buying, but even that is sporadic. This is not hurricane prep, the supply chain is in full force and empty shelves are being restocked.
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03-03-2020, 04:36 AM
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#44
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,695
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scratchy
? Isn't it #7 as a percentage basis, on that link you include.
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I'm seeing #7 as 10/21/87, when the market gained 10.15%. Unless I'm looking at the wrong chart?
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03-03-2020, 05:01 AM
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#45
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 370
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Think back to late 1999 early 2000. Lots of earnings warnings. Lots of companies that were bleeding cash yet were worth billions. Should have been easy to spot that valuations would take a hit. I froze and did not adjust. But I saw it coming, I just did not react.
Think late 2007 and very early 2008. Conversation among friends that we “are already probably in recession”. Heck I was l outspoken shout the bubble with my own real estate beginning in 2005. Yet I froze and did not adjust my equities.
The government did not tell us we were in recession until December 2008 one year after it started and by any account too late to act.
This was me. This was my experience as well. I have learned from the pain. Over the past year or so, I have started to harvest gains. Nothing good lasts forever, or does it? Until last week, I felt like a fool sitting on all that cash.
Maybe I am still a fool, only time will tell...and yet, I have a new found respect for cash.
Aging has done that to me.
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03-03-2020, 05:20 AM
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#46
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Apex and Bradenton
Posts: 1,762
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Goodberry's? Wonderful stuff!
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03-03-2020, 06:51 AM
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#47
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,695
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I just ran my numbers this morning. Looks like yesterday's bounce gave me back a good portion of my losses.
As of February 28, I was down about 6.78%, YTD. Now I'm only down about 3.93% YTD.
It looks a bit scarier if I measure from the 2/19 peak, where I was up about 4.7%.
Anyway, just eyeballing it (I'm too lazy to use a calculator ) looks like I got back about 40% of my YTD losses, and maybe 25% of my losses from 2/19.
I'm sure the market will bounce around some more, though, before we get through this. And then, it'll be smooth sailing, on to the next crisis!
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03-03-2020, 08:03 AM
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#48
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,023
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2008 and 2018 were volatile as all getup comprising of half of the worst 20 days over 20 years.
and 11 of the 20 best days of past 2 decades. Not sure what total returns were those 2 years but lots of money to be made if you time the market right which is basically impossible looking at the randomness of those charts.
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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03-03-2020, 08:48 AM
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#49
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Looks like the Fed is reigniting the War on Savers.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-03-2020, 08:55 AM
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#50
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Severn
Posts: 947
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Did my Walmart grocery pickup yesterday and the pickup lot was a ghost town. Not sure what inside the store looked like but I was the only one in the pickup lot. That's never happened before.
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