Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-03-2020, 06:38 PM   #81
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,424
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAE View Post
Yes, and you have to remember that a lot of these people will have no jobs to go back to, once this is over. They are now estimating that about 1/3 of all restaurants/pubs will go out of business,
I'm not doubting that there's going to be a lot of impact from this calamity. But with regard to restaurants, living in resort areas has shown me that there are always someone else willing to open a restaurant. Doesn't matter how many ones have failed at a certain location, there will be a new one there next year. So I think that yes, many restaurants will close, but new ones will open up, especially if the gov't makes loans easy to get. And as far as the workers go, they'll still be working at a restaurant, just under a different name. That's what I hope, anyway.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-03-2020, 06:48 PM   #82
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: High Plains Non-Drifter
Posts: 314
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAE View Post
Yes, and you have to remember that a lot of these people will have no jobs to go back to, once this is over. They are now estimating that about 1/3 of all restaurants/pubs will go out of business, along with a whole lot of travel-related jobs, and basically any jobs that involve larger groups of people getting together for anything (conventions, movie cinemas, music concerts, etc, etc). That is a tremendous amount of jobs that are just going to be lost, period. And all those people that are out of work will not be buying cars, will not be buying new homes, and on and on. Sure, they may eventually find new work, but it will take a long time. This is a big deal, folks, unlike any previous recession I have lived through.
Again, you are all dear and smart folks. I'm fortunate to be here. I'm also not Nostradamus version 2.0. And as stated previously, if I could tell the future, I'd be in Vegas tomorrow (though since air travel is impaired, I might have to walk there). And everybody's situation is different -- are you age 35, 58, 68, whatever? If I had retired yesterday with a 5% SWR, I might be sweating. YMMV.

But I just don't accept the negativity. When one is in the maelstrom, it always feels like this. Had this board existed on December 8, 1941, I wonder what the posts would have been. They might have been: (1) "US Pacific Fleet disabled, we're done for"; and (2) "a foreign invasion can be anticipated on the western coast of the United States." And those were common sentiments then, according to my parents, now deceased. They dimmed the lights in San Francisco for fear of an invasion.

If this Pandemic terrible? Yes. Is every death horrific? Yes. Have the United States' many faults now been laid bare such that we no longer look like the so-called developed nation we previously deemed ourselves to be? Yes.

But investing is about one's views about the future. For an insightful discussion of the appearance of markets in this context set against human civilization, see Harari, Y. "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind." In essence, stock market investments are about one's view of the future.

And I'm bullish about the future of humanity.

Next up for humanity: (1) artificial intelligence; (2) quantum computing; (3) advancements in health care; (4) the 2021 launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), which will replace the Hubble Space Telescope; and (5) a literal infinite number of other technological advancements that we mere mortals cannot even begin to contemplate tonight. The JWST, for example, is going to peer back into the very beginnings of the Universe. How cool is that? It will likely lead to advancements in quantum-related sciences, too, to the benefit of humanity.

So I'm happily continuing to invest.

I hope everybody is safe, healthy and following the advice of health experts. It's a serious situation, for sure. But I'm still investing.
WyomingLife is offline   Reply With Quote
Long recovery
Old 04-03-2020, 07:03 PM   #83
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Austin
Posts: 8
Long recovery

Took 25 years for stocks to recover from the Great Depression . I donít know when down will end. Pretty confidant that we are at the beginning of down as the knock on effects are rolling out over the next quarter at least. Best thing is that it is an election year and money is going to be spent to moderate the drops but $1500 is one months rent at best.

15% unemployment and thatís just the beginning.
atxk is offline   Reply With Quote
Slow back to work
Old 04-03-2020, 07:22 PM   #84
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Austin
Posts: 8
Slow back to work

Quote:
Originally Posted by ESRwannabe View Post
It could go either way and it all depends on how quickly people can start going back to work. If people are back to work by August then I think we have roughly seen the bottom (might retest it or go a little lower).

If people are stuck in quarantine for the rest of the year then look out below.
Given our current leadership I donít expect it to be under control anytime soon. Too many back sliders. Ie Texas letting churchís hold services. Stupid in every way.

Wonít be under control until massive tracking and tracing is being done and all states have low levels of infection that stay under control. South Korea is at this point and still has new cases daily and new clusters.

Wonít be under control fully until a vaccine is widely available or 50% have had it. If we get to 50% 1 or 2 million will have died. Our leadership has been very slow to react, incompetent when they did and petty when possible.

Worst time to have bad leadership.
atxk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 07:45 PM   #85
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 16,005
Quote:
Originally Posted by atxk View Post

Worst time to have bad leadership.
Yes, everyone from the state level on up has no real experience in something like this. But, then again, if we had other leadership, how do we know they (collectively) would handle this "better"?

OH,BTW, here in The Woodlands, Texas, all churches are not holding services, except online.
__________________
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth...philosopher Mike Tyson
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2020, 08:26 PM   #86
Dryer sheet wannabe
SlowlySaving's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 20
Bear trap!
I see the S&P bottoming out at about 1800-2000 before it's all over.
Will be interesting to see.

*turns off crystal ball
__________________
FREE at last!! ;-)
FIRE'd in 2/2019 at age 49. AA 80/20.
SlowlySaving is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 07:21 AM   #87
Full time employment: Posting here.
BeachOrCity's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 875
Quote:
Originally Posted by WyomingLife View Post
Again, you are all dear and smart folks. I'm fortunate to be here. I'm also not Nostradamus version 2.0. And as stated previously, if I could tell the future, I'd be in Vegas tomorrow (though since air travel is impaired, I might have to walk there). And everybody's situation is different -- are you age 35, 58, 68, whatever? If I had retired yesterday with a 5% SWR, I might be sweating. YMMV.

But I just don't accept the negativity. When one is in the maelstrom, it always feels like this. Had this board existed on December 8, 1941, I wonder what the posts would have been. They might have been: (1) "US Pacific Fleet disabled, we're done for"; and (2) "a foreign invasion can be anticipated on the western coast of the United States." And those were common sentiments then, according to my parents, now deceased. They dimmed the lights in San Francisco for fear of an invasion.

If this Pandemic terrible? Yes. Is every death horrific? Yes. Have the United States' many faults now been laid bare such that we no longer look like the so-called developed nation we previously deemed ourselves to be? Yes.

But investing is about one's views about the future. For an insightful discussion of the appearance of markets in this context set against human civilization, see Harari, Y. "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind." In essence, stock market investments are about one's view of the future.

And I'm bullish about the future of humanity.

Next up for humanity: (1) artificial intelligence; (2) quantum computing; (3) advancements in health care; (4) the 2021 launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), which will replace the Hubble Space Telescope; and (5) a literal infinite number of other technological advancements that we mere mortals cannot even begin to contemplate tonight. The JWST, for example, is going to peer back into the very beginnings of the Universe. How cool is that? It will likely lead to advancements in quantum-related sciences, too, to the benefit of humanity.

So I'm happily continuing to invest.

I hope everybody is safe, healthy and following the advice of health experts. It's a serious situation, for sure. But I'm still investing.
I too am bullish LONG TERM.........BUT....

We have a LOT of bad stuff that will happen between now and that bullish future.

IMHO, best to take off the table, and buy back in lower. Have patience, market will go down before it goes up again.

As long as one has the confidence to jump back in, there is the ability to improve ones financial position vs just holding on.
BeachOrCity is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 07:27 AM   #88
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Boston
Posts: 4
"IMHO, best to take off the table, and buy back in lower. Have patience, market will go down before it goes up again."

Bulls eye!
coach02116 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 07:37 AM   #89
Recycles dryer sheets
sgstaley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Pontiac
Posts: 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecfo View Post
It is both a new bull and we will retest.

Which is good, I need to keep nibbling on the lower prices.
I agree 100%. I am "nibbling" at these lower prices also.
__________________
Happily retired since Spring 2018!
sgstaley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 07:54 AM   #90
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 310
I predict social unrest, war and famine within 18 months. The world will slowly fall apart due to excess debt. A vaccine will be too late to undo the damage.

I know, I know...dark.
__________________
Seems to me that the corporation's race to the top is resulting in a race to the bottom for the employee's quality of life. FIRE can't come soon enough.
kjpliny is offline   Reply With Quote
ugh
Old 04-04-2020, 08:17 AM   #91
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 323
ugh

Quote:
Originally Posted by kjpliny View Post
I predict social unrest, war and famine within 18 months. The world will slowly fall apart due to excess debt. A vaccine will be too late to undo the damage.

I know, I know...dark.

:facepalm :
wallygator69 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 08:28 AM   #92
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by kjpliny View Post
I predict social unrest, war and famine within 18 months. The world will slowly fall apart due to excess debt. A vaccine will be too late to undo the damage.

I know, I know...dark.
So we should be swapping recipes for long pig?
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 09:01 AM   #93
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 310
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
So we should be swapping recipes for long pig?
I'm not sure any recipe for that menu item would help. The imagery...
__________________
Seems to me that the corporation's race to the top is resulting in a race to the bottom for the employee's quality of life. FIRE can't come soon enough.
kjpliny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 09:26 AM   #94
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
Quote:
Originally Posted by kjpliny View Post
I'm not sure any recipe for that menu item would help. The imagery...
Cut it into anonymous cubes and I am sure it tastes like chicken.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

- George Orwell

Ezekiel 23:20
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 09:54 AM   #95
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 121
If the US flattens the curve April 16 as projected market may start an overall improvement. The improvement may mean something like 3 days up, 2 down, or 4 days up 2 down; or we may have a few weeks of up, then one week down.

Who know though? No one.
Mountain skier is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 11:41 AM   #96
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 9,826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mountain skier View Post
If the US flattens the curve April 16 as projected market may start an overall improvement. The improvement may mean something like 3 days up, 2 down, or 4 days up 2 down; or we may have a few weeks of up, then one week down.

Who know though? No one.
But that is the continuing question.
Will the market respond more so to the virus impact or the resulting economic impact?
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 11:46 AM   #97
Full time employment: Posting here.
Lawrencewendall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Severn
Posts: 884
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Here here!
No it's hear, hear.
Lawrencewendall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 12:20 PM   #98
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,025
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawrencewendall View Post
No it's hear, hear.
That's a mute point.
__________________
Numbers is hard

The key to understanding human behavior is realizing half the population is below average.
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 01:05 PM   #99
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 953
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
That's a mute point.

I can foresee the future- we are on the brink of social breakdown, civil war, and swapping recipes for cannibalism. Yet, we are arguing over the proper use of there or their, the royal we, and proper use of it's or its...
__________________
Well it's all right, we're heading to the end of the line...
Clone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2020, 01:40 PM   #100
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,228
Quote:
Originally Posted by k-man View Post
You bring up a point that I think is crucial. And that is consumer behavior and sentiment when we get through the first wave of this deadly virus. Yes, there will be some pent-up demand, no doubt. But how many people are jumping on flights? How many going to concerts, to the movies, to packed theme parks? How about business conferences in convention centers? Family weddings, parties, even funerals. Anything that normally is an intimate affair with hand shaking, back slapping, high fiving and hugging? It's going to be a rough 6 months or so. I do believe in this nation. 1000%!! But we're in the soup for awhile until we figure out how to live in this new normal.
I don't plan on doing any of that until there's a vaccine!
PatrickA5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Why I believe we are about to embark on a historic bull market run Running_Man Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 365 02-18-2021 03:15 AM
The Bull Run will continue for years .. Cabot article cyber888 Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 69 09-10-2018 04:05 PM
Real Estate/Equities Market Bull Run yakers Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets 2 09-25-2016 05:39 AM
Single (Again) Expatriate Restarting the Retirement Plan Singleee Hi, I am... 12 07-27-2008 09:17 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:12 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.