Looking to be FIRE'd in a few years...or sooner

Tazman

Confused about dryer sheets
Joined
Aug 8, 2023
Messages
6
Location
Dallas
All

I stumbled across this site when I was trying to run Monte Carlo scenarios without dealing with a Financial Advisor and that's when I found the FIREcalc and ultimately landed here.

I am 55 and my wife is 53. Daughter has graduated college and son will graduate in December. We had plans on retiring at 55 but here I am still working! My uncle and his father set the "55" target for us. My wife will retire at 55 and I was targeting 59.5 until I found this site and the FIREcalc. I have kept a spreadsheet for years with projected retirement numbers by year as well as determining how long that money will last based on 3% inflation, 5% market growth and 4% initial spend (then adjusted upward by that 3% inflation each year). After running it through FIRECalc, I think I can probably retire a year or two earlier than I had targeted.

Here are the details:
* $3.1 million in retirement assets ($2.4 M in 401k, $150K in investment account and $600K in liquid assets (cash, CDs, etc).
* Currently max out 401k including catchup ($30K this year each for wife and I)
* Company match is $6k per year ($3K for me and $3k for wife)
* Contribute another $18k to the investment account each year
* Save about $100K per year

* We just downsized to a condo in Dallas and have a lake property in another state. We plan on keeping Texas residency for tax purposes (no state income tax)
* no debt with the exception of the $275k mortgage on the lake property with a monthly payment of $1250 (around 3% interest) and a market value of $700k easily
* we have expensive hobbies (motorcycles, SxS and go-fast boats) that we don't expect to change until we can no longer enjoy those hobbies BUT I do all the work myself and expect that to continue. However, toys are never financed!

* the estimated spend in retirement is about $88K after taxes or roughly $117K pre-tax.
* we have kept a budget for years (my undergrad degree is in Finance and my wife is an accountant by trade) and interestingly enough, if we take the expenses that we would have in retirement (so no kids college, no additional investment, no savings monthly etc) it shows that we pend on average about $80 to $85K a year after taxes so my number of $88k for retirement expenses is not too far off that number.

*For my spreadsheet that I mentioned above, I had projected spending $165K per year PLUS another $25K per year for health insurance (which is another unknown) - that number is well above the $117K that I projected that we need! This scenario has me running out of money at age 99 on the spreadsheet.
* On FIREcalc I projected 35 years of retirement and taking Social Security at 62 for both of us ($28K for me and $20K for my wife). This gives us a 96% probability of ending above the zero line after 35 years. Based on retiring at 58 instead of 59.5. If I change retirement to 57 (2 more years of work) and leave everything else constant, then probability goes down to just below 90.

We have not factored in ANY inheritance from parents (not banking on it but it would help obviously) nor the stock options that may or may not come to fruition if my company goes public. Nor have we factored in that we could cash out of one of the properties as we get older if needed.

SO, I am trying to talk myself into sooner rather than later but have become more conservative as I get older (the wife has always been financially conservative as an accountant).

I would welcome your thoughts - also questioning whether we pay off the mortgage on the lake house. Obviously that reduces my cash reserves/liquid assets by almost half. That is the money that we had planned on using prior to tapping into the 401k at 59.5 and SS at 62.

I don't want to work a day more than I have too but also don't want to run out of $$. I guess that is the situation for almost all of us!
 
I wouldn't pay off the mortgage on the lake house yet. Your cash and CD's should be earning more than the 3% you say you have on your mortgage.

Regarding Social Security, please check out Open Social Security. https://opensocialsecurity.com/ I'm guessing one or both of you are high earners. It may be best to have at least one of you (the higher earner) delay until 70 for longevity insurance.

The 4% rule of thumb says that you could spend $126k per year. So it sounds like you 2 will be fine if you stop now.

But it sounds like you (or your wife) may not be mentally prepared yet? That's totally fine. Let it sink in, keep running your numbers through calculators. And one day when you've had enough BS at w*rk you can give you notice.

It's really nice when your w*rking and knowing you can quit at any time, isn't it. :)
 
I agree on the mortgage, that is why we haven't paid it off to this point.

I don't think that the we are not mentally prepared to retire - we just want to ensure that we have enough funds before we turn off the tap!

I also think the biggest unknown is health insurance!
 
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Agree with most of the stuff that is said so far. Only correction: 4% "guideline" was for 30 year "spend down" retirement with 95% chance of success. With current PE and longer retirement period, I use 3% as a guideline for safe withdrawal. YMMV.
 
You might want to relook at your tax estimate - it is too high. With $117K ordinary income, MFJ, you would only owe a little more than $10K Federal Income Tax leaving $107K to spend. For $88K of spend you only need about $96K taxable income from your portfolio.

You can play with a slightly simplified tax model here: https://www.irscalculators.com/tax-calculator

It is not clear what you are entering into FIRECalc to get those results - your unrealistic $165K number? If you are entering $117K and $100K/year savings and retire in 3 years and two SS checks you are nowhere near any kind of failure on FIRECalc.

Here's a simple FIRECalc model for your case as described above:

https://firecalc.com/index.php?wdam...oor=0&callprocess=Submit&FIRECalcVersion=3.0&

Bottom line is you can round your post-tax spend to $90K, your pre-tax draw to $100K, and you are at only about 3.25% withdrawal rate. That is ignoring spouse income and SS (and inheritance and ESOP) - you are good to go even now!
 
I am 52. Every day I work is enough reason to not work. Plenty of motivation to not work.

We have our 3rd kid to launch (Sophomore in HS), so I'm still working. :-(

Quit as soon as you can. Find a bunch of things to do that don't cost much money. Sprinkle in things that cost more money. Take it year by year.
 
^^agreed on the taxes ^^

Basic calc on $88k spending minus $28k standard deduction is about $60k. 12% (or 15% future) tax is only about $9k max if all your spending comes out of deferred funds.

Fellow Dallas-ite here, live around White Rock Lake... We're not far behind you but no 2nd home. DW likes too many places to visit for now.
 
You might want to relook at your tax estimate - it is too high. With $117K ordinary income, MFJ, you would only owe a little more than $10K Federal Income Tax leaving $107K to spend. For $88K of spend you only need about $96K taxable income from your portfolio.

You can play with a slightly simplified tax model here: https://www.irscalculators.com/tax-calculator

Thanks for that - I was estimating too high and still factoring in paying Social Security taxes etc. That does help a bit.

It is not clear what you are entering into FIRECalc to get those results - your unrealistic $165K number? If you are entering $117K and $100K/year savings and retire in 3 years and two SS checks you are nowhere near any kind of failure on FIRECalc.

Here's a simple FIRECalc model for your case as described above:

https://firecalc.com/index.php?wdam...oor=0&callprocess=Submit&FIRECalcVersion=3.0&

Bottom line is you can round your post-tax spend to $90K, your pre-tax draw to $100K, and you are at only about 3.25% withdrawal rate. That is ignoring spouse income and SS (and inheritance and ESOP) - you are good to go even now!

In FIREcalc, I used the $165K number plus $25k for health insurance. Why do you say the $165K is unrealistic? Because it is much higher than our normal spend of $80 to $85K per year? The $165 is probably higher than it needs to be but we want to be able to enjoy our retirement and travel more/do more than we can currently do while chained to our desks at work!
 
Agree with most of the stuff that is said so far. Only correction: 4% "guideline" was for 30 year "spend down" retirement with 95% chance of success. With current PE and longer retirement period, I use 3% as a guideline for safe withdrawal. YMMV.

I think 3% is way too conservative. They probably have large social security checks coming to them in about 10 to 15 years. They can reduce the drawdown on their portfolio then to maybe 2%? Which is perpetual safe.
 
Thanks for that - I was estimating too high and still factoring in paying Social Security taxes etc. That does help a bit.



In FIREcalc, I used the $165K number plus $25k for health insurance. Why do you say the $165K is unrealistic? Because it is much higher than our normal spend of $80 to $85K per year? The $165 is probably higher than it needs to be but we want to be able to enjoy our retirement and travel more/do more than we can currently do while chained to our desks at work!

That's a lot of travel and do more... If you did that every year, I'd be concerned. If it's the first 10 years & then tapering down from there, probably not a problem, especially when SS kicks in. I wouldn't know how to spend at that level...
 
That's a lot of travel and do more... If you did that every year, I'd be concerned. If it's the first 10 years & then tapering down from there, probably not a problem, especially when SS kicks in. I wouldn't know how to spend at that level...

Yeah the wife and I were discussing the same, not sure how we would spend that much extra to be honest.

However, as you mentioned, it would probably be the first 10 years or so and then taper off (subscribing to the go/go, slow go, and no go stages of retirement).

I guess the biggest unknown cost for us is bridging the health insurance gap until medicare kicks in. I have budgeted $2k per month roughly for that.
 
IMO, the first rule of FIRE is to know your retirement expenses. From that you can derive your necessary or preferred withdrawal rate (i.e. the 4% rule, VPW, Monte Carlo sims, spreadsheets, etc.).

You said:

* the estimated spend in retirement is about $88K after taxes or roughly $117K pre-tax [sic].
* we have kept a budget for years (my undergrad degree is in Finance and my wife is an accountant by trade) and interestingly enough, if we take the expenses that we would have in retirement (so no kids college, no additional investment, no savings monthly etc) it shows that we spend on average about $80 to $85K a year after taxes so my number of $88k for retirement expenses is not too far off that number.

So based on your comment above, it sounds like $88K is your basic living expense. And you want to ramp up travel, fun, etc. in retirement. Cool :cool: .

To your $88K you should add a realistic estimate of your additional travel/fun. We ourselves are doing revenge travel since Covid (4-5 international trips/year) and spending about $45K/year for 2022/23, but that will likely taper back a bit. We are not travelling cheap or particularly cost effective (doing all-inclusives, paid for business class when it was a "good deal"). Per your post above, you really need to think about what a realistic travel budget is, and remember to offset it by whatever your prior working vacations cost (presumably already in your $88K number). So $88K plus say $40K gets you to $128K.

In FIREcalc, I used the $165K number plus $25k for health insurance. Why do you say the $165K is unrealistic? Because it is much higher than our normal spend of $80 to $85K per year? The $165 is probably higher than it needs to be but we want to be able to enjoy our retirement and travel more/do more than we can currently do while chained to our desks at work!

A couple of things to consider on health insurance. First, are you already including some of that in your historical expenses? When I worked for Megacorp my "contribution" to my health insurance was something like $5K/year. So going on ACA was not as much of an increase as one might expect.

Second is you should spend some time understanding ACA plans and costs in your state, and how the subsidies work. $25K is a little high - unsubsidized plans aren't quite that expensive and you should have some subsidies at your income level. But that is all very state dependent. I would guess $20K is still a conservative estimate for planning.

So now we are up to $148K spending. Add worst-case taxes (everything is ordinary income) and you are at about $170K spending in FIRECalc with you retiring at 57 and wife at 55. $170K is a little better than your previous $190K and still very conservative.

Nothing close to a failure case here: https://firecalc.com/index.php?wdam...oor=0&callprocess=Submit&FIRECalcVersion=3.0&

Per comments above, you should also work with opensocialsecurity.com to understand the value of delaying one or both of your SS claims.
 
I guess the biggest unknown cost for us is bridging the health insurance gap until medicare kicks in. I have budgeted $2k per month roughly for that.

Well you have $750k in non-deferred accounts and that can go a long way to keep your income "low" for ACA purposes. Keep your income MAGI around $35k for 2 & used the $750k for funding your lifestyle. I can see that carrying you almost free for health insurance for 7-8 years & probably more if you learn how to manage it.
 
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