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03-14-2008, 08:46 AM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
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CPI, bald faced lies
I haven't located all the monthly details yet, but it's time for citizens to file a Class Action suit. If anyone out there doesn't think the numbers are a lie, you have to be brain dead.
Gas down 2% for the month, commodities down, medical care up 0.1%.....what a joke.
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03-14-2008, 09:00 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Whatever they are smoking, I want some.
Prices unchanged? If private companies cooked their books like this, their executives would be in prison.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-14-2008, 09:05 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 20,650
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by RockOn
I haven't located all the monthly details yet, but it's time for citizens to file a Class Action suit. If anyone out there doesn't think the numbers are a lie, you have to be brain dead.
Gas down 2% for the month, commodities down, medical care up 0.1%.....what a joke.
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Which month and column are you referring to?
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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03-14-2008, 09:17 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,037
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in their dreams, maybe... 
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
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03-14-2008, 09:28 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Its one month of numbers big deal. Put away the tin foil hats.
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03-14-2008, 09:32 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Its not a lie. The metric simply records price changes for a particular budget and type of person. That many ER's probably dont equate to.
I'd bet that for the average urban worker that rents an apartment, takes the train and doesnt pay for health care, its spot on.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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03-14-2008, 09:33 AM
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#7
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
Which month and column are you referring to?
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This months CPI numbers that were reported this AM.
There is nothing tin foil about it, it is real. It's not just one month either.
What a joke.
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03-14-2008, 09:35 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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What I don't get is that TIPS are rallying today. They should be selling off viciously as people who hold them realize what a scam it is and sell.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-14-2008, 09:35 AM
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#9
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
Its not a lie. The metric simply records price changes for a particular budget and type of person. That many ER's probably dont equate to.
I'd bet that for the average urban worker that rents an apartment, takes the train and doesnt pay for health care, its spot on.
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Get real. So that persons medical care is going up 1.2% a year? Get real.
Oh, I see you excuded health care, I guess it's free!
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03-14-2008, 09:41 AM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
What I don't get is that TIPS are rallying today. They should be selling off viciously as people who hold them realize what a scam it is and sell.
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I don't get it either. Wall Street is drinking the koolaide, unlike Main Street.
As far as Wall Street, did you watch Bear Sterns this morning. Up $10 on the news is was about to go under (who the hell was buying on that news), then down 50%. The koolaide drinking is out of control.
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03-14-2008, 09:46 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 20,650
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockOn
This months CPI numbers that were reported this AM.
There is nothing tin foil about it, it is real. It's not just one month either.
What a joke.
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You can find data easily to prove to yourself whether CPI is right or not, whether by looking at your past purchases or online (see below, one of hundreds of sources, choose one you trust). I gather you're referring to the Feb 08 CPI numbers, and if I eyeball the chart below down 2% looks feasible for Jan to Feb. Sounds like you're thinking about Feb to Mar, which appears it will be a different story. I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege.
US Gas Prices.bmp
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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03-14-2008, 09:47 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockOn
Get real. So that persons medical care is going up 1.2% a year? Get real.
Oh, I see you excuded health care, I guess it's free!
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Yep, it is almost free in the CPI model. The CPI model presumes a worker who has their health care costs largely paid by their employer.
Even in the CPI-E (elderly) health care costs are presumed to be absorbed somewhat by medicare, but it does account for increased out of pocket expenses due to age.
Unfortunately, theres no CPI-ER where the primary cost is health care, followed by food, energy, travel and toys.
My frickin toy budget skyrocketed 498% in the last month.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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03-14-2008, 09:50 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
Unfortunately, theres no CPI-ER where the primary cost is health care, followed by food, energy, travel and toys.
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See, that's the thing. It may well be true that "discretionary" big-ticket items have fallen in price due to decreased demand, but that's because everything else is so damn high that a lot of people can't afford that big screen TV or new car because they're spending everything filling the gas tank, heating the home and keeping food on the table.
What they really need is a CPI-MC for the middle class, one that reflects a typical budget and recognizes that when prices of the essentials is very high, discretionary "stuff" is weighted less to account for the fact that fewer people can afford it.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-14-2008, 09:52 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,020
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I'll get you some better percentages later...
For my CPI-P:
Health care is down against last month but up 10% over last year
Gas is down and trending down faster (employing new driving style)
Food is up horribly but that's from moving the hedonic scale up (eating out multiple times a week)
Energy is even
It's not like the calculation for CPI is a mystery. And, it's based on polling real people. Do you think they're putting some ringers in the mix? Maybe you don't like their component weighting?
I didn't look hard, but this doc shows the weighting by category:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpiri2006.pdf
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03-14-2008, 09:54 AM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
You can find data easily to prove to yourself whether CPI is right or not, whether by looking at past purchases or online (see below, one of hundreds of sources, choose one you trust). Your referring to the Feb 08 CPI numbers I gather, and if I eyeball the chart below down 2% looks feasible for Jan to Feb. I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege.
Attachment 3394 |
I'm a little fired up about this, so I might be missing something but it looks like gas was up 18% in the last year by your example. Yet CPI is less than 4% year over year? We can all pick and choose and play games with numbers.
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03-14-2008, 09:56 AM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Why be fired up about it. We know they exclude certain things its not like they change the parameters every month. Keep track of your own inflation rate.
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03-14-2008, 09:57 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
Why be fired up about it. We know they exclude certain things its not like they change the parameters every month. Keep track of your own inflation rate.
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But they claim that the OVERALL rate (which includes food and energy) is also unchanged. If you only said the "core" rate was unchanged, I could believe it. But you can't drive to w*rk or eat the core rate.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-14-2008, 09:58 AM
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#18
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 798
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They are stealing from us through COLA's. Even the standard deduction on our taxes.
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03-14-2008, 09:59 AM
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#19
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
I've tracked and used CPI in my job for about 15 years, and I'm not so sure it's inaccurate as you allege.
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Midpack, do you think the CPI accurately reflects the real cost-of-living for the average American?
__________________
Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.
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03-14-2008, 10:00 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
But they claim that the OVERALL rate (which includes food and energy) is also unchanged. If you only said the "core" rate was unchanged, I could believe it. But you can't drive to w*rk or eat the core rate.
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Why is it so hard to believe for 1 month it was unchanged?
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