Do We Have 10+ Year Retirees?

[morriss003]

All the wisdom on this forum brings me to the question of portfolio longevity. I can hope for the best in the future, but what about those who survived the 2008 crash, dips in the past (15-20 years) and are doing just fine?

I can guess from a few posters but it would be interesting to see the numbers.

-At any point did you have to curb your spending?
-How did you adjust your portfolio during 2008-2012?


I tire of the hype in financial media about what to do next. Learning from the past is advantageous to the future (personal experiences, not graphs, calculators and tables).

I got out of stocks in 2006. It was obvious what would happen. Unfortunately I could not convince my wife to sell a property that was vastly inflated. We lost about 65K because of that.

 

[M Paquette]

I retired in March 2008, coming up on my 11th anniversary. Initially I had a slightly goofy portfolio that FinancialEngines had cranked out and I rather mindlessly followed, while I studied and learned. In the summer of 2008 I started selling off all the goofy stuff, with not much in gains or losses, moving to a money market fund at Vanguard. My intent initially was to do periodic buys to build a typical Boglehead portfolio, index funds split between stock and bond markets.

When the Great Fluctuatiion started later in 2008 I thought it would be a dandy time to reset things. In mid-November I noticed the market was being stupid about Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, and my own portfolio design called for all the bond money that was not in an IRA to go into something both tax efficient and inflation protected in some form, so I bought a TIPS fund.

The stock market looked scary, so I stayed on the sidelines a while longer, til February 2009. By then people were whispering about the DOW going to zero and other such nonsense, so being the cranky contrarian I am, I bought. Total stock market fund, and ETFs for FTSE and Small Cap Value (Yes, I am a Fama-French Heritic.)

The portfolio has grown rediculously since then. After a mediated divorce and asset division, I still am well ahead of where I was when I retired. My ex and I are both in good financial shape and doing OK. I’m still planning on deferring Social Security til I am 70.

 

[zippy2020]

Yes! And never tipping more than 15%. Let others be the high rollers.

Since my mother and my spouse were both waiters, it doesn't bother me at all to be considered a "high roller". Being a good waiter is a physically demanding job, and it was a heck of a lot harder work than me sitting at a desk answering a phone for 8 hours.

Not tipping well isn't something I'd be proud of, but that's just me. Different strokes for different folks.

 

[medved]

Since my mother and my spouse were both waiters, it doesn't bother me at all to be considered a "high roller". Being a good waiter is a physically demanding job, and it was a heck of a lot harder work than me sitting at a desk answering a phone for 8 hours.

Not tipping well isn't something I'd be proud of, but that's just me. Different strokes for different folks.

I agree. I would prefer to tip well, even if that means I need to dine out less often.

 

[DougJohnson]

Now in my 13th year of retirement. Never had to cut back. My wife and I bought stuff like crazy in late '08 and early '09. There were sales on everything, stocks, bonds, travel, home improvements.

All you had to do was believe the world was not coming to an end. OK. It took more than a little faith for that, but we got some real bargains. These days, I've been raising cash because I can't find any bargains in stocks. But one day, the cycle will start all over again.

-- Doug

 

[JJpop]

Great timing

All the wisdom on this forum brings me to the question of portfolio longevity. I can hope for the best in the future, but what about those who survived the 2008 crash, dips in the past (15-20 years) and are doing just fine?

I can guess from a few posters but it would be interesting to see the numbers.

-At any point did you have to curb your spending?
-How did you adjust your portfolio during 2008-2012?


I tire of the hype in financial media about what to do next. Learning from the past is advantageous to the future (personal experiences, not graphs, calculators and tables).

Well this question is being asked at the end of one of the greatest bull markets in history,if not the greatest.Replies would be much different under different circumstances so if someone is getting ready to retire I would keep that in mind.

 

[rk911]

I retired in '05, the wife in '06. at the end of '08 our net worth had dropped ~20% from the previous year. for the most part we didn't then (and still don't now) need or use our investments for living expenses we made no change in our AA. by the end of '10 we were right back where we were on 12/31/07.

 

[Rianne]

I retired in '05, the wife in '06. at the end of '08 our net worth had dropped ~20% from the previous year. for the most part we didn't then (and still don't now) need or use our investments for living expenses we made no change in our AA. by the end of '10 we were right back where we were on 12/31/07.

If you don't use your investments, what do you live on? I'm guessing SS and pension, just a guess.

 

[rk911]

If you don't use your investments, what do you live on? I'm guessing SS and pension, just a guess.

correct. we're both blessed to have defined benefit pensions and that coupled with SS is what we live on. the investments are gravy.

 

[meleana]

I think it would be helpful to know if many of the people who say their investments have quadrupled have pensions and are collecting social security over the 10 years. That makes quite a bit of difference.

 

[Souschef]

I think it would be helpful to know if many of the people who say their investments have quadrupled have pensions and are collecting social security over the 10 years. That makes quite a bit of difference.

OK I retired in 2009, and have an income of about $70 K from our SS and pensions. That covers almost all of our expenses. Since 2009, my IRA has quadrupled, and I have to manage my RMD's.
Even though we live in California, by taking advantage of certain property tax breaks, our property tax is only $400. I know that my sis pays over $8k property tax on Long Island.

 

[meleana]

OK I retired in 2009, and have an income of about $70 K from our SS and pensions. That covers almost all of our expenses. Since 2009, my IRA has quadrupled, and I have to manage my RMD's.
Even though we live in California, by taking advantage of certain property tax breaks, our property tax is only $400. I know that my sis pays over $8k property tax on Long Island.

That's what I mean. People who do not have pensions or maybe not eligible for SS- if they are retired- they have to draw down their money and I doubt they would be bragging about how their savings doubled, tripled or whatever in 10 years.


But good for you! Must be very awesome!

 

[unclemick]

January 1993. Ballpark 2 - 6% withdrawal from 60/40 ish portfolio. Went Target Retirement 2015 in 2006 so full auto closer to 50/50 ish now a days.

Note I was really really cheap in the early years of ER and cut expenses in 'down' portfolio years.

heh heh heh - early small non cola pension after 5 years and early SS after 12 years of ER. Muddling the waters were 1 1/2 of temp work and selling and consuming a rental duplex proceeds in the early years.

P.S. I repeat. Cut expenses during down periods and 'stayed the course' portfolio wise.

 

[CardsFan]

I think it would be helpful to know if many of the people who say their investments have quadrupled have pensions and are collecting social security over the 10 years. That makes quite a bit of difference.

Frankly, a lot has to do with the luck of the draw related to SOR risk

I am only 3 years in, but living 100% off of investments. After 3 years we have 20% more than we started with, even after expenses. And we have slowly moved down to an AA of 52/48.

The thing about living thru 2007/2008/2009 (and 1987 way back when) is the reminder that you should not panic. Emotionally, easier when you are accumulating, harder when retired.

 

[audreyh1]

That's what I mean. People who do not have pensions or maybe not eligible for SS- if they are retired- they have to draw down their money and I doubt they would be bragging about how their savings doubled, tripled or whatever in 10 years.


But good for you! Must be very awesome!

Ours doubled since 1999 - in spite of two very nasty bear markets, no pension, no SS, and almost 20 years of drawdowns.

It also doubled since early 2009 - funny how that worked.....

 

[Lsbcal]

We should not forget to include inflation in our figures. I retired in 2003 and inflation since then has been about 39%.

The numbers I mentioned (some pages back) were inflation adjusted. When I do the VPW analysis with a similar portfolio and spending rate, it is not too different from our results.

The measure of a good retirement is not just the portfolio going up and to the right. I fully expect that there might come a time when it declines somewhat permanently but hopefully there is still plenty in the gas tank to have fun.

 

[CyclingInvestor]

That's what I mean. People who do not have pensions or maybe not eligible for SS- if they are retired- they have to draw down their money and I doubt they would be bragging about how their savings doubled, tripled or whatever in 10 years.
!

I have been retired 12 years, no pension or SS, living entirely off investments. The pile is about 60% larger than it was. matching expectations for a 100/0/0 allocation and an IRR about the same as the SP500 over that period.

 

[Souschef]

I have to apologize. In my comments on this thread, I did not take into account that one of the main purposes of this site is to help people retire early.
I did not retire early, so all the comments about ACA subsidies did not apply. And as stated above, I did not have to live on my investments until I took SS and my pension.
I will keep that in mind in future posts

 

[Lsbcal]

I have to apologize. In my comments on this thread, I did not take into account that one of the main purposes of this site is to help people retire early.
I did not retire early, so all the comments about ACA subsidies did not apply. And as stated above, I did not have to live on my investments until I took SS and my pension.
I will keep that in mind in future posts

All is forgiven Souschef now that you have confessed.

Sometimes I think this forum is just for retirees and the ER ones are a minority. But I could be wrong. I retired at 55 (is that early?) but it really wasn't initially my idea or this forum's insights. It was the tech layoffs that finally got to me along with a few thousand others at mega corp. Then I decided after some analysis that maybe I didn't have to work.

 

[street]

I'm about 30 months into retirement and have 21% larger portfolio after living from these investments. No pension and no SS or other income.

 

[Rianne]

I'm about 30 months into retirement and have 21% larger portfolio after living from these investments. No pension and no SS or other income.

Nice, do you know your RR? Our portfolio in VG shows 10yr, 5yr, 3yr, 1yr YTD RR. 3 Yr RR = 7%. 1 Yr RR= -1.2% Our investments are basically stagnant, meaning we haven't changed AA except for buying CD's with better returns than bond funds. We are still in bond funds, just not as heavy.

I went back to get my MBA in the late 90's. My brain does not compute PV, FV, TVM. For instance: If I had the numbers to plug in, fine. But the class demanded you figure out from a complex word problem. So I appreciate the simple evaluation of a long term portfolio

FV = PV x [ 1 + (i / n) ] (n x t)

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

Ours doubled since 1999 - in spite of two very nasty bear markets, no pension, no SS, and almost 20 years of drawdowns.

It also doubled since early 2009 - funny how that worked.....

This is very encouraging. You retired when markets were overvalued, and then you faced the dot-com market bust soon after. Then, of course, 2008. Makes me think that emulating your fixed % of portfolio withdrawal strategy would be a good move for me and DW.

 

[Milkman]

This has been a very interesting thread. I have been retired for 4 1/2 years. I will take SS at 70 in another year and a half and only have a $102 mo. pension. Therefore we are living primarily off of dividend income from tax deferred and taxable investments. Our combined withdrawal rate has been between 2-3%. We live well, take foreign vacations every year, and have paid cash for 2 new cars since retirement. Our investable assets have increased 26% since retirement. When I retired our asset allocation was at 100/0 with investments in dividend growth stocks. Now that interest rates have been improving we have switched to a roughly 75/25 ratio. Dividends and interest are sufficient to cover our monthly withdrawals for income. But we also have cash and laddered CDs maturing every 90 days to replace that income for 2 1/2 years should things change radically. The two of us sleep well and consider ourselves extremely fortunate.

 

[audreyh1]

We should not forget to include inflation in our figures. I retired in 2003 and inflation since then has been about 39%.

The numbers I mentioned (some pages back) were inflation adjusted. When I do the VPW analysis with a similar portfolio and spending rate, it is not too different from our results.

The measure of a good retirement is not just the portfolio going up and to the right. I fully expect that there might come a time when it declines somewhat permanently but hopefully there is still plenty in the gas tank to have fun.

Absolutely! I do track our net worth inflation adjusted and that's really the only way I keep score. From 1999 it makes a big difference. It's more like up ~60% in real terms since retiring. Inflation since retiring is up around 50%. Something that cost $1 when we retired now theoretically costs $1.50.

 

[GravitySucks]

That's what I mean. People who do not have pensions or maybe not eligible for SS- if they are retired- they have to draw down their money and I doubt they would be bragging about how their savings doubled, tripled or whatever in 10 years.


But good for you! Must be very awesome!

Almost 6 years in.
No pension. Small survivors SS started in September. I'm up over 30% from my retirement starting portfolio.