TromboneAl
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2006
- Messages
- 12,880
Do you expect to see a problem some time in the next few years? If so, what are you doing to avoid problems/benefit from it?
I loaded up on long-term TIPS in November when they were giving a "real" yield to maturity of close to 3%. Half of them mature in 2016 and the other half in 2025, and I plan to hold to maturity.
I mean I shifted a large percentage of my bond allocation to TIPS.When you say loaded up, did you mean a reallocation from the equity portion of your portfollio or merely a conversion from higher yield bonds?
Can you explain the rational of this decision? I thought people typically bought Treasury bonds when interest rates are high.
I mean I shifted a large percentage of my bond allocation to TIPS.
And while Treasury yields were low then, real yields on TIPS were very high then (nearly 3% *real*) because the market was pricing in extended deflation. Treasuries and TIPS don't move in tandem.
To me, a very secure investment returning nearly 3% real seemed like a no-brainer for a chunk of my fixed income allocation.
Yes, roughly. If inflation averaged 3% over the duration of a particular TIPS issue, then the bond would effectively yield a nominal 6%.So, assuming an average rate of 3% (inflation), this would be similar to a regular T-bond yielding around 6%??
This is a good point. I remember reading somewhere that if I created a printing press that could produce $100 bills that were indistinguishable from "real" C-notes, I could print $3 trillion of these bills and have NO impact on inflation if I buried them in my back yard or kept it all in storage. But if I spent them -- injected them into the economy -- it WOULD have an inflationary impact.I don't know, honestly. I can see inflation due to a falling dollar, but I think other currencies will keep up. Logic would suggest that increasing money supply would cause inflation, but for that kind of inflation to happen, it has to actually reach consumers' pockets.
I don't expect very high inflation. I expect a moderate, creeping inflation that is talked down but permitted with a wink to be somewhat higher (maybe 4-5%) over a future decade or so, as governments around the world digest their debt.
Do you expect to see a problem some time in the next few years? If so, what are you doing to avoid problems/benefit from it?
5% inflation coupled with no/slow growth over a decade would be an absolute killer.........
Despite the dramatic recent events, I do not see anything that justifies or would lead to "hyper" or even "very high" (e.g., 80's at its worst) inflation. I'm not convinced that the scars of the 80's have been forgotten so completely for that scenario to be permitted.
By the way, "hyper" inflation is probably not the word you are looking for. "Hyper" inflation would be Germany in the 30's and 40's, or Zimbabwe today. You probably just want to say "high" inflation.
While the hyperinflation in Germany might be more extreme than that which I fear, I am concerned about inflation to the point that it leads to the described economic consequences and personal behaviors. Probably it won't happen, but then a couple of years ago I would have said that probably 700+ billion dollars was more than could possibly be needed for any future government bailouts.A very high level of inflation that tends to result in the breakdown of the monetary system, the hoarding of goods, and difficulty in achieving real economic growth. The classic case of hyperinflation occurred in Germany during the 1920s. Hyperinflation, which tends to motivate people to own real goods, adversely affects security prices.
There are no yes or no questions. We need some "I don't know, but leaning toward..." options in the poll.