Do you think 2023 is 1929, 1966, 2000, etc?

[Nick12]

Well, if she was smart enough to buy it all back around Thanksgiving 2008, or March 9, 2009, I'd say she was a market timing genius. But, somehow, I have a feeling she didn't do that?

While I was working for MegaCorp that March 2009 was a really terrible time. Massive layoffs left and right and I survived the cut. My responsibilities doubled overnight and I was lucky to still have a job.

 

[target2019]

It will be a terrible time, but we'll stick with our AA. Had to go with #1 because of the limited options available in the poll.

What I mean by a terrible time is the 2001 and 2009 recessions. For working people it became very harsh. OTH retired and FIRE will survive, some with belt-tightening.

 

[Out of Steam]

I pulled enough money out of the market last year to meet our basic income needs long-term, leaving us with a current market allocation of about 30% stocks, plus an ESOP.

I'm uncomfortable with current economic conditions and their potential impact on stocks, but am not making any predictions. Except for allocating funds from selling ESOP shares (as we're eligible) mostly to stocks, I don't plan to do much whatever happens.

 

[marko]

Well, if she was smart enough to buy it all back around Thanksgiving 2008, or March 9, 2009, I'd say she was a market timing genius. But, somehow, I have a feeling she didn't do that?

She never went back to the market. Lost a fortune in misses opportunities.

 

[OldShooter]

The longer a person has been an investor, the less confident they are in their ability to predict. This is a manifestation of the Dunning Kruger effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

 

[Montecfo]

Not sure about "Doom". Maybe year of consolidation. By then the Fed's taper plans should be clearly in view. There will be a negative market reaction.

And statistically I am assuming equities will be less bouyant after this year, for the next 5-10 years. Reversion to the mean, and the impact of higher taxes, regulation and low population growth.

 

[VFK57]

We are in a dangerous position because our leadership as the world economy#1 is slowly but surely deteriorate. So what? It is just my opinion that what my happen is the US$ being in 60% of the world trade would surely be pushed back to 55, 50% and high inflation of the US$ may happen. However, where to invest? If high inflation is going to happen, most likely equities, RE, gas, oil, PM and many other assets will go higher. May be sit quiet and wait is still better choice.

 

[rodi]

How did you react in March / April 2020 ?

I rebalanced in early April since my quarterly 'check to see if I need to rebalance' happened.

In other words... I reacted according to my plan. Didn't panic buy or sell.

 

[NW-Bound]

I don't know if or when the market will crash. But I think the chance is not high that the market will go even more gangbuster than it already has.

I am trying to reduce my stock AA from the current 78% back down to 60%. Being a stock lover, I find that it is hard to do.

 

[tulak]

I’m buying more stock. Markets might crash, but I don’t worry about it. The long term trend has always been positive and if that changes, then there are bigger issues going on.

Here’s to a repeat of the roaring 20s!

 

[NW-Bound]

I’m buying more stock...

Great. Whenever I click "sell", I always know there's somebody else who clicks "buy".

Stock liquidity is so great, I simply cannot get interested in other assets such as RE.

 

[rk911]

I'm 8 months away from retirement. I've been playing with FireCalc and it says I don't have anything to worry about. This post is not based in fear, I'm actually genuinely curious if people think this is going to be one of those rare 5% failure rate years that has happened in the past. If you are not a "PermaBear" but you think we are headed for doom I would love to hear what you have to say.

i just hope it’s not 1861.

 

[MRG]

Nah. 2032 is the next Y2K get ready now.

 

[Dash man]

Nah. 2032 is the next Y2K get ready now.

I’m putting all my investments into tulip bulbs. I got a tip from my cousin’s dental hygienist.

 

[RunningBum]

Nah. 2032 is the next Y2K get ready now.

I thought it was 2038, for all the unix based systems?

 

[Exchme]

Stocks are the fast lane and that means occasional crashes and traffic snarls. To make money getting out of the fast lane, you have to be right not only on the timing to get out, but also the timing to get back in. I doubt any of us here have any special ability to foresee when either a crash or recovery is going to happen.

A few years ago, I was talking to a guy that was bragging he got out and went to cash before the crash. After probing a bit, it came out that he meant he got out in 1999 and nearly 20 years later had never gotten up the nerve to get back in. So he had scared himself into a lot of lost opportunity.

Nobody knows nuthin' about the future is a very wise saying.

 

[tulak]

Great. Whenever I click "sell", I always know there's somebody else who clicks "buy". [emoji4]

Oh yeah. And the best part is that it keeps going up!

What can go wrong? [emoji4]

 

[Badger]

I made all my major final adjustments in AA about 5 years ago. The stock market, bond market, and banks will all have to fail at that time to get me in a little trouble. By then the entire country will have to be going down hill. But as long as our SS and small pensions are still coming in then I will still have a little money coming in to buy groceries so I am not concerned.



Cheers!

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

I have no idea. It will be different, the world economy, the US economy and technology are all different from those prior periods. I'll be unemployed in two weeks so I sure hope it's different! I ran my cash flow model assuming a 30% drop NOW and only 5.5% growth thereafter with 3% inflation (2.5% real after the drop) and would get by... obviously a bad model with linear growth. Even at 50% with 2.5% real returns I'd get by in theory. I sure hope not, as it would be a bit nerve racking. I'm risk averse but then almost everyone thinks I'm crazy for quitting so maybe I am not!


Personally, the market "feels" high and don't expect another booming decade. Ideally, for me, would be slightly slower equity price growth as the world economy catches up and drops multiples down to more comfortable levels. I think that is the most likely scenario but then what do I know?

 

[marko]

Well, if she was smart enough to buy it all back around Thanksgiving 2008, or March 9, 2009, I'd say she was a market timing genius. But, somehow, I have a feeling she didn't do that?

Oops! I was off by a year...she "sold everything she had in the market" on the last Friday of February 2009! The following week the market took off and never looked back. And no, she never went back.

 

[nap470]

MLB Hall of Famer Billy Williams once said, "A slump starts in your head and winds up in your stomach"

Entering my 2nd year of retirement, I am mentally concerned about a long, sustained correction. I feel our AA is where it should be at between 55-60% equities, and we have about 4-5 years of living expenses in cash/CDs. But it would be a mental challenge.

 

[a60dan]

Thanks to COVID-19, we learned that we can live on about half what we have budgeted in retirement.

We sure did eat out and travel a lot

 

[KarenF]

Since I'm not a market timer and my investment plan calls for rebalancing to my preferred asset allocation on both down markets and up markets... It's all good. Not going to sell on a prediction that the market may crash. Not going to buy on a prediction the market may boom... Just rebalance as needed.

And I'm finally reaching the point where I'm less worried about sequence of returns risk (SORR). I would probably be more nervous if I was just approaching retirement or very recently retired.

My husband retired last November and I am working part-time advising my department. FireCalc gives us 100% but I am nervous about Sequence of Returns risk so am going to consult for a while until I feel more comfortable. I feel better knowing I have an income flywheel if needed and I can work as much or as little as I need/want to.

 

[Dtail]

My husband retired last November and I am working part-time advising my department. FireCalc gives us 100% but I am nervous about Sequence of Returns risk so am going to consult for a while until I feel more comfortable. I feel better knowing I have an income flywheel if needed and I can work as much or as little as I need/want to.

Understood.
Just note that the risk of the worst historical SORR is already built into the Firecalc result which provided you with the 100%.

 

[RobbieB]

I think 2023 is gonna be just like 2023. Same as it ever was.