Does anyone else wish we would enter a bear market, if for no other reason than to get the monkey of the longest bull market off our backs? They did get there in Europe yesterday. Or do you think that it really does not matter and I should not worry about it?
Does Anyone Else Wish We Would Enter a Bear Market?
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Andre1969
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I'm not wishing one to happen. However, if it's going to, I wish it would hurry up and get done with, so we can get it over with!
Plus, when I think of how nicely the market recovered after 2000-2002, and 2008-09, and even 2018, once we get through this one we might have some really good times ahead.
Plus, when I think of how nicely the market recovered after 2000-2002, and 2008-09, and even 2018, once we get through this one we might have some really good times ahead.
Yes, but only for the reason stated. I do not like the idea of people getting steamrolled by things they can do nothing about. But, let's not kid ourselves. The market and world economies in general have been at least semi-propped up for over a decade because those who like to blow on most about capitalism and free markets don't really like it when they actually work the way they are built. That's so 19th century. But you cannot forestall the inevitable indefinitely.
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Why the false precision? Whether the drop is 19% or 21% is irrelevant. A lot of froth has been wrung out of the market.
dixonge
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While I understand the desire, I think *way* too much is made of the 'technical' definition of bear vs bull. If the market drops some, goes sideways for awhile, and then goes back up -- that's good enough for me. If that means we can technically state that the bull market never ended and is still ongoing, well -- so what? If you're hung up on that, maybe you shouldn't be?
The problem is it isn't the froth that's the problem. It's bigger than mere froth. The froth gets wrung out with the little 5-10% perturbations along the way (yes, with some bigger perturbations now and then).
I think "bear market" is sort of misleading or maybe it's become a marketing term for investors as currently used. The concern should be the ECONOMY. The stock market is just one manifestation thereof, and not always a perfect one.
I'm not wishing for a bear market.
I'm wishing for the central banks to get their thumb off the scales and let the markets do some real price/risk discovery again so that values actually mean something... which probably equates to the same thing.
I'm wishing for the central banks to get their thumb off the scales and let the markets do some real price/risk discovery again so that values actually mean something... which probably equates to the same thing.
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Why? So long as I have more in my portfolio at the end of the year than I did at the beginning, I don't particularly care how that happened. I guess I'm just not a purist that way.
NW-Bound
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While I agree that the market was overvalued, I much prefer that it treads water for a couple of years for the fundamentals to catch up, instead of crash and burn.
But of course the market, or more precisely the aggregate investor, likes to see things more dramatic. This, I am used to, and can cope with. Have been through this enough times that it does not bother me.
You can't argue with the market. All you can do is to figure out what you can and should do for yourself.
But of course the market, or more precisely the aggregate investor, likes to see things more dramatic. This, I am used to, and can cope with. Have been through this enough times that it does not bother me.
You can't argue with the market. All you can do is to figure out what you can and should do for yourself.
Do you see a viable or efficient "market" when central banks start buying equities as former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen has proposed?
Why should the Fed just buy stocks and bonds to create wealth? Why not just print and distribute directly to taxpayers bank accounts and cut out the middle man?
Why collect tax at all when they can just print what they need?
It's either a market where values can be found or its a casino where the house determines who wins.
Spanky
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Certainly not!
Dtail
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100% agree. I have mentioned this concept in other posts.
I think that some of the market ups and downs are psychological and one common theme is that the longest running bull market can't last.
I think that some of the market ups and downs are psychological and one common theme is that the longest running bull market can't last.
Dtail
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Technically no. It was down 20% intra-day, but not at the close.
The bull market has had multiple 19% down from the high events, but not 20%.
NW-Bound
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^^^ Yes.
Is that completely by chance, or the 20% mark has some magic attribute to it that propels the market higher as it is touched?
Is that completely by chance, or the 20% mark has some magic attribute to it that propels the market higher as it is touched?
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I guess I should not assume your motivation in investing. Mine is to make money. At the end of the year, if I have made money, I do not say "yes, I'm substantially richer than a year ago, but the market was distorted by central bank intervention, so I cannot possibly enjoy my gains." Conversely, if I have lost money, I don't console myself by saying "at least the market was efficient." But, again, you may have different objectives.
W2R
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I don't WISH it would enter a bear market. I like it when the market is thriving and soaring upwards.
But whatever it does.... enter a bear market, resume a bull market.... I'm OK with it. Being a buy-and-holder, I'll just watch.
But whatever it does.... enter a bear market, resume a bull market.... I'm OK with it. Being a buy-and-holder, I'll just watch.
Same here. I tuned into CNBC and saw a blood-red title: "Markets in Turmoil".
And I smiled.
What can I say...I love a good sale at the market.
I would like to reset the clock on this longest bull market and start a new one. Cannot happen without some pain, but it is normal and natural, and absolutely important to have a bear market from time to time.
Think of it like a forest fire. Everyone would love for the woods to always be lush and green, but a fire must occur every so often in order for nature to function. There are some trees that cannot reproduce without a fire. Sometimes I feel I cannot make any real returns without a bear.
Think of it like a forest fire. Everyone would love for the woods to always be lush and green, but a fire must occur every so often in order for nature to function. There are some trees that cannot reproduce without a fire. Sometimes I feel I cannot make any real returns without a bear.
Those fully invested in stocks, stocks would have to return to their highest level to get back to even. Or if the market drops 50%, their stocks would have to go up 100% to get back to even.
If, OTOH, one did get out of the market before the drop, chance of nice returns. I.E, if the [mod edit] COVID-19 Virus doesn't kill you first.
If, OTOH, one did get out of the market before the drop, chance of nice returns. I.E, if the [mod edit] COVID-19 Virus doesn't kill you first.
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Everybody wants to "make money".
My concern with artificially inflated markets is that the money being made isn't stable. It is a sugar high that has no economic foundation of value. The printing presses have to run faster and faster just to keep up and that has not worked out well for any of the other currencies that have done it.
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I have not noticed substantial price inflation for the stuff I buy. Unless and until that occurs, I'd say my gains are real.
teejayevans
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They just said we drop 20% from our highs....that’s bear market territory, right?
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