Dow 6000

[ripper1]

Rogue economist Harry Dent is at it again and says we are about to enter what he calls the Greatest Depression. Predicts Dow to hit 6000 this year. Look out below.

 

[audreyh1]

This year!

That's an impressive prediction.

 

[Gone4Good]

From the guy who brought you this in January 2009.

 

[2017ish]

Is that before or after the Dow hits 40,000? (Per wiki article on him: In 2000, based on his forecast that economic growth would continue throughout the 2000s, Dent predicted that the DOW would reach 40,000, a prediction which was repeated in his 2004 book.)

 

[HadEnuff]

He's not, perchance, selling anything that would be promoted in his book, is he?

 

[Tadpole]

I bet he's getting rich. He has achieved the Peter Principle Sweet Spot.

 

[frayne]

As usual Harry is full of ****, a stopped clock is right twice a day. I was foolish enough to buy and read his book "2000s Investor". He sells snake oil like many of those who proclaim to see the future. They all want to tell you about their home runs but neglect to mention their strike outs.

 

[ripper1]

Well, he might have the year wrong. If not this year, then next, or whenever he gets it right.

 

[DrRoy]

He just wants to sell books for bears to justify their position.

 

[VFK57]

There are a few authors - economists who predict US economy slow but grow for the next few years. On the other hand there are a few others in addition to Harry Dent (like Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, James Rickards etc) who predict prolonged depression and point to many reasons why they think so. It is up to you to be an optimist or pessimist. I think that it is better to be cautious and be partially in stocks, RE and cash.

 

[foxfirev5]

Then at the end of the year he wasn't wrong he was just early

 

[friar1610]

Well, he might have the year wrong. If not this year, then next, or whenever he gets it right.

Like a guy I chat with at the gym. He was a trader for Wellington Mgt in Boston before he retired. One day he told me, "I think the market is going to surprise us." I asked when? How? On the upside or downside? He said, "Oh, I don't know any of those details; I just know it's going to surprise us."


Sent from my iPod touch using Early Retirement Forum

 

[audreyh1]

There are a few authors - economists who predict US economy slow but grow for the next few years. On the other hand there are a few others in addition to Harry Dent (like Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, James Rickards etc) who predict prolonged depression and point to many reasons why they think so. It is up to you to be an optimist or pessimist. I think that it is better to be cautious and be partially in stocks, RE and cash.

I remember Peter Schiff's wild call in 2012 for $5000 gold. At that time he said $1700 was a bargain. I feel bad for those who acted on his advice. There were tons of people loading up on gold at the time - I remember the gold bug ads.

CNBC has a decent review of his record so far: The Peter Meter: Assessing Schiff's predictions

Of course Schiff explains now that he was just early.

You can go nuts listening to perma-bears or perma-bulls. They have it all figured out - it sounds so logical - on the surface. And they are so convinced.

 

[Lisa99]

could care less about a 6000 prediction. AA is 50/50 with adequate cash to carry us through several bad years. FIRE is good!