Dr. Doom - The worst is yet to come

[shotgunner]

Nouriel Roubini: I fear the worst is yet to come - Times Online

 

[Notmuchlonger]

so

 

[newporttony]

Has this guy ever said "things are going to get better"??

 

[Dawg52]

I wish somebody would shoot the SOB.

 

[audreyh1]

I think he turns into a vampire at night - better use a silver bullet.

Audrey

 

[Spanky]

He believes governments will have to come up with an even bigger international rescue, and that the US is facing “multi-year economic stagnation”.

What might that be?

 

[bbbamI]

I wanna hear from Dr. Feelgood.

 

[Dawg52]

I wanna hear from Dr. Feelgood.

You rang?

 

[bbbamI]

Hot dawg! The doctor is in.....yeah baby!!!!!!

 

[HFWR]

You rang?

Kinda makes you feel sorry for all those wannabe musicians who spent all that time learning to play their instruments, when all they needed was a schtick...

 

[al_bundy]

does roubini ever give out any specifics with his predictions or is it just doom and gloom?

 

[DblDoc]

does roubini ever give out any specifics with his predictions or is it just doom and gloom?

No. And how does he invest? NYU Stern

Buy and hold diversified index funds...

DD

 

[Dawg52]

No. And how does he invest? NYU Stern

Buy and hold diversified index funds...

DD

Amazing he is 100% stocks, considering how pessimistic he has been. I'd still like to have him shot.

 

[Gone4Good]

I wish somebody would shoot the SOB.

I wish he'd start being wrong.

 

[Gone4Good]

does roubini ever give out any specifics with his predictions or is it just doom and gloom?

Plenty. One of the latest is that the S&P 500 will bottom at around 600. He figures earnings will drop to about $60 and the market will trade at a 10x multiple.

I can actually live with that, if that's the down side. That means stocks today are trading at 14x trough earnings.

 

[al_bundy]

no one cares about 2008 earnings anymore since everyone knows it's a total lows. the market is trying to find pricing at 2009 - 2010 earnings and we are almost at the end of the psycho selling where everyone is selling to meet margin calls or just because they think the world is ending.

back in the 1970's i'm pretty sure the PE bottomed long after the 1974 low

 

[audreyh1]

Historically, are trough multiples usually applied to trough earnings?

Audrey

 

[al_bundy]

think so, go to www.safehaven.com and you'll have to do some searching, but in the last 18 months i read an article there about how we go through PE contractions every few decades and the last one the PE bottomed in the late 1970's or in the 1980 - 1982 bear market. can't remember which.

 

[newporttony]

Plenty. One of the latest is that the S&P 500 will bottom at around 600. He figures earnings will drop to about $60 and the market will trade at a 10x multiple.

I can actually live with that, if that's the down side. That means stocks today are trading at 14x trough earnings.

I've heard other ecomonists (like Rosenberg from Merrill Lynch) predict a 10 PE because other bear markets have contracted to that level, but I don't see why such a low multiple would make sense in an environment where the 10 yr treasury yields < 4%.

 

[Gone4Good]

I've heard other ecomonists (like Rosenberg from Merrill Lynch) predict a 10 PE because other bear markets have contracted to that level, but I don't see why such a low multiple would make sense in an environment where the 10 yr treasury yields < 4%.

Deflation?

 

[audreyh1]

OK - from a very quick perusal of the charts in this:
Hussman Funds

It looks like P/E multiples trough a couple of years after the trough in earnings. Look at 1975, 1983, and 1995 for example. So even if earnings drop to $60, the contraction to (whatever) would occur a couple of years later when earnings have rebounded somewhat, if history repeats.

Audrey