EZ money on Wall St

[Spock]

At the risk of sounding predictably repetitive:
The last 10 years of returns are not free market returns. Collectively central banks have pumped trillions of $ into the markets with BOJ and SNB buying stocks directly (BOJ owns 74% of Japanese ETFs per Bloomberg).

In addition to direct stock ownership, everybody on this board is well aware that interest rates have been held to near zero (and in some countries negative interest rates) for the last 10 years.

Companies can't find a better use of capital than to buy back their own stock... stick that lack of capital investment into your future growth equations and what comes out for the next 10 years?
I could go on, but I have to go wipe the foam from my mouth before it drips on my bunker door.

 

[donheff]

What has caused above average returns since 2009 & do you feel comfortable factoring in double digit returns for the next 10 years?

Well, we were coming out of a recession and the PE was down around 15. Now it is way up near 30. I plan to leave my expectations way down.

 

[cooch96]

I'm not sure about the S&P. 3% real feels right.

I'm very optimistic on the global scale. I think the sharpest growth in the next decade will be Malaysia and Indonesia. That area seems to have a heap of potential. I also hope to see regions of Africa start modernizing and industrializing.

 

[ERD50]

From October 1979 to October 4th 2018. How do you get 12%?

I gave you the link.

Where did you get 5.5%?

-ERD50

 

[kgtest]

Assuming policy creates headwind for investors with rising inflation and costs, cutting into investment opportunity, then we will see less than what we saw the past decade.


Consumer and corporate debt could be a headwind.


Hell, bad weather for a few years could do it too though.



Trade wars probably don't help, because it creates market uncertainty which equates to volatility, which equates to lower returns.


Or, the low unemployment could boost wages, decreased inflation could increase spending and investment strengthening retirement accounts, with bigger profits and dividends.


Anyone's guess. We are already beyond s&p being longest bull on record. This article was from August and states we surpassed the 90-2000 dot com run-up.



I see some overvaluations but everything just basically went on a 10 to 15% discount and I don't know where else people are putting money to get the returns they need for retirement...t bills and bonds, CDs but me...equities baby.

 

[marko]

My 3,5,10 and 15 year average hovers just above 7.5%.

I plan each year on 6%; some years I'm disappointed, some years I'm thrilled. It's just a matter of keeping score rather than a number I 'must' make.

I like to go with more than a year to year number and prefer a smoothed 3 year rolling average.

 

[Free bird]

I used a calculator that is online. It would appear it is a flawed calculator.

 

[Free bird]

Trying the calculator on moneychimp.com

 

[Free bird]

Dqydj.com calculator appears to be inaccurrate.

 

[TDub]

I will be happy to just outpace inflation.

+1 yes, please

 

[jazz4cash]

3% real would be 50% higher than my target.

 

[timemoveson]

The amazing average returns since March 2009 are mostly because the market indexes had been more than cut in half between Oct 2007 and Mar 2009.

You get vastly different statistics depending on where you start measuring.

+1000

 

[Big_Hitter]

I'm assuming 5% nominal at 50/50 AA

 

[Lakewood90712]

1999 - 2009 10 years w/ 2 bear markets. Bad times, but without dividends, really bad

 

[OldShooter]

... Market doesn't care. Market will do what market will do. I don't feel entitled to anything. ...

+1

Regression to the mean, maybe, but how and when? So even that is not useful for predictions.

Re double-digits I would never use numbers like that for planning. My planning numbers are mid-single-digits at best and they are not predictions.

 

[sengsational]

Their yield is horrible and I can think of a dozen better ways to outpace inflation.

Their yield is horrible and I can't think of a single alternative way to outpace inflation at the same or lower level of risk. Plenty of ways at higher levels of risk. The comment came from a post claiming that they'd be happy to match inflation.

 

[COcheesehead]

Their yield is horrible and I can't think of a single alternative way to outpace inflation at the same or lower level of risk. Plenty of ways at higher levels of risk. The comment came from a post claiming that they'd be happy to match inflation.

The comment was mine and my exact words were that I wanted to outpace inflation. Their yields are less than cash.

 

[Free bird]

One more rate hike party today. Were almost neutral. Or were in neutral. Is that good? I mean if you want to go anywhere

 

[Dtail]

One more rate hike party today. Were almost neutral. Or were in neutral. Is that good? I mean if you want to go anywhere

So how many hikes in 2019, so I could decide when to lock in a longer duration CD?

 

[donheff]

EZ money today.

 

[NYEXPAT]

So how many hikes in 2019, so I could decide when to lock in a longer duration CD?

Two.

 

[COcheesehead]

So how many hikes in 2019, so I could decide when to lock in a longer duration CD?

I've been buying bonds for my bond ladders. Early in September/October there were some nice yields going out about 3-5 years. Today, those seem to be gone and you have to go out further to even match what I was getting just a month or two ago on shorter durations. Lesson being, rates can go both ways. Have we seen the highs for near term rates? Only the shadow knows.

 

[foxfirev5]

So how many hikes in 2019, so I could decide when to lock in a longer duration CD?

The rates on 5-10 year CD's are already sliding and the supply as well.

 

[Dtail]

The rates on 5-10 year CD's are already sliding and the supply as well.

Fidelity still offering today 5 yr brokered non callable CD at 3.60%, which I believe was the same rate as a week ago.

 

[jazz4cash]

Fidelity still offering today 5 yr brokered non callable CD at 3.60%, which I believe was the same rate as a week ago.

I think it was 3.65 less than one week ago. I noticed yesterday that it dropped a bit back to 3.60