Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-15-2018, 01:18 PM   #61
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 3,521
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Companies were already paying well under the new rate according to this Yardeni blog - well under 20% since the start of the previous decade.

http://blog.yardeni.com/2017/11/corp...s-fiction.html

So itís not clear to me that there is going to be a massive increase in profits.

Yet a massive increase in profits had already been factored in by the huge market rally of 1997. The reality will come to light over the next few quarters/couple of years. The usual pattern is buy the rumor, sell the news. Expectations are incredibly high.
It is a company by company thing. Domestic companies enjoy the greatest benefit, and those are rallying the most. It is a mixed bag for multinationals, lower rate repatriation but less help on the overall effective rate.

Overall I have heard it is plus 7-8% for S&P. So meaningful.

The big benefit is to make US rates more competitive worldwide, and reduce incentive to re-incorporate overseas.
Montecfo is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-15-2018, 01:22 PM   #62
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 3,521
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
Our approach is simple - hold 3 -5 years of expenses in cash and maintain a 55% equity allocation.
Agree. I'm at 5 yrs+ in cash and ST bonds and higher equity allocation.

But the key is not to panic and sell equities on a selloff.
Montecfo is offline   Reply With Quote
Anyone considering stop loss on their ETF funds?
Old 01-16-2018, 11:18 AM   #63
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 579
Anyone considering stop loss on their ETF funds?

Anyone else considering a stop loss on their ETFs? I've begun thinking it might be a good idea in case of a sudden crash but then found this article. Lots of "circuit breakers" that I wasn't aware of...

https://www.kitces.com/blog/etf-illi...p-loss-orders/
ArkTinkerer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 01:20 PM   #64
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
mickeyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering Creek
Posts: 6,472
Quote:
Heard some friends in their 60 & 70s with 80% in equites bragging about their returns last years and just thought to myself, oh my, my.
Perhaps the two investors had already "won the game" and have chosen to take risks that their heirs could benefit from.

As for me, at age 73 I think it's nuts to take such risk so I hover around 50/50 these days. I plan on sleeping well no matter what happens.
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas

Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx

In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
mickeyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 01:31 PM   #65
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,278
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd View Post
Perhaps the two investors had already "won the game" and have chosen to take risks that their heirs could benefit from.

As for me, at age 73 I think it's nuts to take such risk so I hover around 50/50 these days. I plan on sleeping well no matter what happens.
What was your return last year? What was the return based on the 50/50 split?
Not being critical, just curious.
bobandsherry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 01:40 PM   #66
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
mickeyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering Creek
Posts: 6,472
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobandsherry View Post
What was your return last year? What was the return based on the 50/50 split?
Not being critical, just curious.
Don't think you are being critical. I think my return was about 12% or so after a big chunk of RMD being removed from play.
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas

Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx

In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
mickeyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 01:41 PM   #67
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
jollystomper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 3,870
I'm more pragmatic than fearful or greedy. I'm enjoying the good returns, balanced with understanding when they end what the impact will be on me.

For example, a 10% correction in the markets probably puts us back to Sept-October 2017 levels. A 20% correction probably puts us back to late 2016/early 2017 levels. Still way ahead of the 2008-2009 bottom. The impact to my portfolio, given the AA I have chosen for my level of risk, is not going to drive me to wearing barrels for clothing and working for food. I would still sleep very well.
__________________
FIREd date: June 26, 2018 - wwwwwwhat a rush!
jollystomper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 01:42 PM   #68
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
VanWinkle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Morton
Posts: 1,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd View Post
Don't think you are being critical. I think my return was about 12% or so after a big chunk of RMD being removed from play.
Mine was in the same ballpark 12-13% with a 50/50 allocation. I sleep good at night too!
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
VanWinkle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 01:47 PM   #69
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,278
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyd View Post
Don't think you are being critical. I think my return was about 12% or so after a big chunk of RMD being removed from play.
Thanks for sharing. Easy to sleep with that return. If you don't mind, what's the returns for your equities vs your bond/portfolio? Any concern with impact to bonds with increasing rate environment? Or are your bonds adjustable?
bobandsherry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 02:01 PM   #70
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
mickeyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Texas~29N/98W Just West of Woman Hollering Creek
Posts: 6,472
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobandsherry View Post
Thanks for sharing. Easy to sleep with that return. If you don't mind, what's the returns for your equities vs your bond/portfolio? Any concern with impact to bonds with increasing rate environment? Or are your bonds adjustable?
I do not know the answer to your inquiry. I no longer follow all of the numbers any more. I am pretty sure that I have "won the game "as Dr. Bernstein has described it.

Bonds are nothing but a diversifier to me. If rates go up, my PMMF will also go up and bond income will reinvest in bonds with current rates. Duration matters.

If the S&P500 is up 22%, I figure that about 11% of that is mine. I know that that may be simplistic, but it's pretty accurate for my needs.
__________________
Part-Owner of Texas

Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. Groucho Marx

In dire need of: faster horses, younger woman, older whiskey, more money.
mickeyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 03:13 PM   #71
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 182
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArkTinkerer View Post
Anyone else considering a stop loss on their ETFs? I've begun thinking it might be a good idea in case of a sudden crash but then found this article. Lots of "circuit breakers" that I wasn't aware of...

https://www.kitces.com/blog/etf-illi...p-loss-orders/
Yes, but the trick is how to set them to trigger at the right time. That is you want to try and sell as the market is heading down but not on a small bump like we had today - 1/16/2017.

I had a few stop loss trades trigger today which I did not expect.
__________________
3 ish years to FIRE, mentally ready now!
KenZ71 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 03:22 PM   #72
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
MRG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 10,139
Quote:
Originally Posted by KenZ71 View Post
Yes, but the trick is how to set them to trigger at the right time. That is you want to try and sell as the market is heading down but not on a small bump like we had today - 1/16/2017.

I had a few stop loss trades trigger today which I did not expect.
The last ones I ever set fired during the flash-crash. They worked well, locked in sure losses.
MRG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 03:38 PM   #73
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by jollystomper View Post
I'm more pragmatic than fearful or greedy. I'm enjoying the good returns, balanced with understanding when they end what the impact will be on me.

For example, a 10% correction in the markets probably puts us back to Sept-October 2017 levels. A 20% correction probably puts us back to late 2016/early 2017 levels. Still way ahead of the 2008-2009 bottom. The impact to my portfolio, given the AA I have chosen for my level of risk, is not going to drive me to wearing barrels for clothing and working for food. I would still sleep very well.
I think this quote sums up where my mood is at. Just keep in mind that a 50% gain is erased by a 33% decline.
enginerd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 03:41 PM   #74
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 48,178
Quote:
Originally Posted by enginerd View Post
Just keep in mind that a 50% gain is erased by a 33% decline.
^ See this? This is a textbook example of why numbers is so dang hard!
__________________
Numbers is hard

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 03:50 PM   #75
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
skipro33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Placerville
Posts: 1,599
I'm never going to try and time the market... again. I got my rear handed to me in '08-'09 when I chose to cut my losses and pull out of equities. Other than a few minor allocation adjustments for age and other controllable variables, such as when to take SS, I'll let Fidelity continue to interview me and help me determine my exposure to risk. In the meantime, I've sat back and observed and one thing I've noticed that gives me a little sigh of relief is the cost of energy. As long as oil and other energy sources remain relatively low, I figure business has a pretty good buffer for their profit margin. When the cost to produce goods and deliver them goes up with the price of energy, I will expect a correction because of the tap to their overhead.

So, if the market tanks, I'll take my SS. If they stay fat, I'll keep paying myself.
skipro33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 03:56 PM   #76
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 48,178
Quote:
Originally Posted by skipro33 View Post
So, if the market tanks, I'll take my SS.
Been there, done that. 1st SS payment deposited to my bank account in February of 2009.
__________________
Numbers is hard

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 04:03 PM   #77
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
skipro33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Placerville
Posts: 1,599
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Been there, done that. 1st SS payment deposited to my bank account in February of 2009.
I was 52 in 2009 and over 75% in equities, planning to retire by 55. I could not find good advice as my funds were in a company 401K and 457 account. Anyone I spoke to told me they could not offer financial advice beyond that my plan 'looked good'. Very frustrating time! Luckily I was able to recover by earning more and working one more year, retired at 56. As my DW puts it, our money is "just enough" without SS and a 4% draw. I feel much better about my position now that I am turning 62 this year and have a 'Plan B' that won't force me into choices that are a retreat.
skipro33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2018, 04:41 PM   #78
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,407
Quote:
Originally Posted by enginerd View Post
I think this quote sums up where my mood is at. Just keep in mind that a 50% gain is erased by a 33% decline.
Another way to look at the possible decline is the gain required for recovery:
Decline Gain required
10 11.11%
15 17.65%
20 25.00%
25 33.33%
30 42.86%
35 53.85%
40 66.67%
45 81.82%
50 100.00%
60 150.00%

The recovery period could be quick or very long - who knows?
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2018, 02:54 PM   #79
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,903
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtheulen View Post
You called that one!
Ouch! Sure did. And that's another reason why I let those dang non-emotional Vanguard computers do my re-balancing.

heh heh heh - .
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2018, 09:11 PM   #80
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 1,746
The thing about market cycles is that they can go on far longer than you think. So calling the top (or the bottom) is a very difficult process. I personally think we haven't topped yet, but how close to "March 2000" or "October 1987" we are is a difficult to guess. Me? I'm guessing that we aren't there yet, maybe like mid-1998 or early 1999? Who knows.

What I do know is that it isn't necessary to make it a binary decision. Some posters decide they are nervous and therefore need to drastically reduce their equity allocation all at once.

I think (hope?) the market is going higher over the next year, but am a net seller. Why? Because my equity allocation had moved up to almost 70% (69%). That doesn't mean I have to immediately sell bunches of stuff. Instead, I sold a little (1/2 of 1%) to edge it own a little. As time goes on, I will continue this approach.

For reference, my age is 60 and I have a pension from previous mega corp (retired in 2009) and I am employed full time (teaching, at a considerably lower salary). My fixed position is overweight in cash equivalents (laddered CD's, inflation adjusted bonds). Between the mega corp pension and income from the fixed portion of my portfolio, I would have enough to fund retirement, so I sleep just fine at night. I have always run my overall allocation with a higher than typical cash position, but that also allows me to remain "in" when others get nervous and flushed out at the wrong time.
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Fear / Greed and AA Part 2 34rlsa FIRE and Money 28 01-22-2014 07:07 PM
Fear / Greed and AA 34rlsa FIRE and Money 55 01-19-2014 07:15 PM
Hope, Greed and Fear freebird5825 Other topics 0 04-22-2009 05:07 PM
Fear and Greed - What to do now. chinaco FIRE and Money 10 11-21-2008 03:18 AM
Fear and Greed PsyopRanger FIRE and Money 25 07-16-2006 12:15 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:22 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.