REWahoo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give
So, if the market tanks, I'll take my SS.
Been there, done that. 1st SS payment deposited to my bank account in February of 2009.
So, if the market tanks, I'll take my SS.
Been there, done that. 1st SS payment deposited to my bank account in February of 2009.
I think this quote sums up where my mood is at. Just keep in mind that a 50% gain is erased by a 33% decline.
You called that one!
That’s the length of bear markets from peak to trough, but doesn’t include time to recover to the prior peak. The S&P500 index didn’t recover it’s 2000 peak until Oct of 2007, just in time for an even bigger bear. The Oct 2007 peak wasn’t exceeded until 2013.Today I ran across this representation of the length of bull markets (found from a posting on Bogleheads). By their criteria we have room to run (greed). It is a "History of U.S. Bear and Bull Markets Since 1926" and this one is only average so far.
https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common...tentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d
Today I ran across this representation of the length of bull markets (found from a posting on Bogleheads). By their criteria we have room to run (greed). It is a "History of U.S. Bear and Bull Markets Since 1926" and this one is only average so far.
https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common...tentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d
fear and greed are the two emotions that make the majority of individual investors perform wealth killing mistakes. Personally I have been at this game for a long time and unfortunately heard too many stories about people making predictions about where the market is headed like "the bull market has another year or two run" statements like this are absolute bunk. The tragedy is when folks make investment decisions based on this kind of thought process. A few quotes that are appropriate "nobody knows nothin'" Bogle. "Ignore that last ten years and focus on the long term" Bernstein. One more that I really like is "100% of what you hear on TV and 99% of what you read about the market is worse than worthless" another Bernstein.
---Understand portfolio theory
---Study market history
---Don't let emotions factor into you investment decisions.
---Eliminate as many fees as possible---buy index funds for the bulk of your holdings.
Nothing new here. All I have is my experience and its worked for me for a very long time now. Before that I thought I was smarter than the market.
I was here on this board during the last market crash 10 years ago, at the time I was in my early 30s and had a measly 200k portfolio and calmly declaring, "Stocks are on sale! Time to buy!" Now my retirement accounts alone have crossed 750k and I now know the icicles of fear my more experienced ER types were feeling back then. It's tempting to buy a crystal ball and try to market time when the stakes feel so much higher. Between my stocks and my rental property we can actually see bare bones FIRE from where we are at now, it starts to mess with your head a bit!
I was here on this board during the last market crash 10 years ago, at the time I was in my early 30s and had a measly 200k portfolio and calmly declaring, "Stocks are on sale! Time to buy!" Now my retirement accounts alone have crossed 750k and I now know the icicles of fear my more experienced ER types were feeling back then. It's tempting to buy a crystal ball and try to market time when the stakes feel so much higher. Between my stocks and my rental property we can actually see bare bones FIRE from where we are at now, it starts to mess with your head a bit!
I was here on this board during the last market crash 10 years ago, at the time I was in my early 30s and had a measly 200k portfolio and calmly declaring, "Stocks are on sale! Time to buy!" Now my retirement accounts alone have crossed 750k and I now know the icicles of fear my more experienced ER types were feeling back then. It's tempting to buy a crystal ball and try to market time when the stakes feel so much higher. Between my stocks and my rental property we can actually see bare bones FIRE from where we are at now, it starts to mess with your head a bit!
The Market.......
Dilley Dilley!
You now have Loss Aversion, because you have more to lose.
Purely a speculative post. The bull has been running strong for nine years. How much longer will the bovine hold up at this current pace ?
Anyone else considering a stop loss on their ETFs? I've begun thinking it might be a good idea in case of a sudden crash but then found this article. Lots of "circuit breakers" that I wasn't aware of...
https://www.kitces.com/blog/etf-ill...-with-managing-risk-through-stop-loss-orders/
Companies were already paying well under the new rate according to this Yardeni blog - well under 20% since the start of the previous decade.
Dr. Ed's Blog: Corporate Taxes: Facts vs Fiction
So it’s not clear to me that there is going to be a massive increase in profits.
Yet a massive increase in profits had already been factored in by the huge market rally of 1997. The reality will come to light over the next few quarters/couple of years. The usual pattern is buy the rumor, sell the news. Expectations are incredibly high.
The blog misses the point by confounding average tax rates with marginal tax rates. By definition, any increase (or decrease) in profits is happening at the margins.