Financial Samurai Can't Afford FIRE Anymore

[pb4uski]

Sorry. I can't find my tiny violin

Poor guy.

Exactly my sentiment.

 

[jazz4cash]

1. He has a mortgage not buying a place so current price is immaterial. His property tax is locked in with an annual increase of 2% per year. What's his problem?
2. As 2 FIREd parents who needs daycare? What's his issue? Schools? Go Charter!

Oh --- issue is he needs a blog topic!!

EXACTLY!
I liked his material when I first came across his blog years ago so I presume he has actually helped some folks. What about the followers that retired early without a blog to un-retire to. Basically he’s just a fraud.

 

[Rianne]

Samurai did not examine worse case scenario. His COL and age put him at a huge disadvantage. This thread made me step back and examine losing 1/2 our portfolio and then 3/4 of portfolio. Fortunately, with SS and pension we're still in great shape, 100% on firecalc. Our spending ~ $65K - $70K includes vacations and everything we need. If we went into independent living, I think we'd be ok. How was he figuring LTC? Did he think he'd be young and healthy forever?

 

[kgtest]

The Mustache blogger is recently divorced—is this one? This article doesn’t mention it.

Bloggers—smh. I wonder what the real reason is or if he really does intend to take a traditional job. I predict he will still call himself a RE genius.

You are right. I am getting my bloggers confused lol.

 

[kgtest]

So far this thread has listed at least two things that can kill FIRE: international travel and divorce. NOT!

I am not saying Samurai wont come back to be FIRE proof later. I've heard plenty of stories of people on this thread getting divorced and starting over only to be FIREd before they thought possible. It CAN kill FIRE...my sis got taken to the cleaner with her 3 year divorce, she was flying high, now she is battling cancer and kids are on reduced fee lunches. Combo of bad luck, bad timing and bad health all at once really though. Usually one leads to another though. Constructive choices yields positive results destructive choices negative.

 

[jollystomper]

Just my view - FIRE-ing at 34 leaves many more years for things to change in ways you do not expect. Too much risk in my view. While you certainly have few years if you are able to FIRE in your 50s and 60s, there tend to be a lot less variables. One might even be more flexible in terms of choosing to live in a lower cost area.

The "abject poverty" comment gave me a sad laugh. It just reminded of many relatives who used similar lines to "justify" living above their means.

 

[Mdlerth]

Kraft durch schadenfreude

I've read a fair number of the blogs by that money ninja guy. When he sticks to objective advice, he's generally right.

Sure, sometimes he wanders off into more subjective areas where he's both condescending and wrong, such that I'd like nothing better than to see him answer his doorbell to find a flaming bag of dog poo on the porch.

But I'm a bit surprised to see such an overwhelming consensus here of finger-wagging. No love for a poor Everyman whose paltry 250k won't cut it in his home town. This is the same crowd which typically features a more even split on the subject of Luck vs Choices. Maybe he just had bad luck: it's not his fault that SF is insanely expensive.

 

[gayl]

Nope. No love from me. DGS can 'cut it' on his 20 he week × $22 an hour job while still a student at SFSU. So if he can, so can this guy.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

Sometimes things work until they don't. At that time, changes must be made to keep everything going. The obvious solution is to move away from San Francisco. FS doesn't want to do that, so he must pay for that decision and it looks like he is.
I never approached retirement from the standpoint of how can I afford retirement living in So Cal. I knew I couldn't do it. Instead I looked at what my income coming in would be and what places were available for me to live based on that income. Sometimes people don't want to do that, and that's fine, but then they have to pay for that.

 

[MichaelB]

After reading the CNBC article linked in the OP, I am struck by three things.

One, his plan to to “unretire” only through 2022, then retire once again. Two, he intends on shifting from treating his blog as a hobby to “monetizing it”, but still considers that retirement (sounds more like work to me).

Most of all, though, he was only “retired” for 7 years, and over than period the sp500 was up more than 2.5 times, yet his financial plan failed. And his new plan is to make money by working in finance and running a blog that gives financial advice?

 

[kgtest]

Most of all, though, he was only “retired” for 7 years, and over than period the sp500 was up more than 2.5 times, yet his financial plan failed. And his new plan is to make money by working in finance and running a blog that gives financial advice?

+1 This is the elephant in the room. From SF budget alone he failed? And that is a big piece of the new plan. I don't think he read that one blog on LBYM?

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

After reading the CNBC article linked in the OP, I am struck by three things.

One, his plan to to “unretire” only through 2022, then retire once again. Two, he intends on shifting from treating his blog as a hobby to “monetizing it”, but still considers that retirement (sounds more like work to me).

Most of all, though, he was only “retired” for 7 years, and over than period the sp500 was up more than 2.5 times, yet his financial plan failed. And his new plan is to make money by working in finance and running a blog that gives financial advice?

I also found it interesting that he has cited 2022. Suppose there is a major "correction" of the markets? I think the guy's audience needs to be that of those who want to "FAT FIRE", not the ordinary Joe who doesn't need $250K of income a year. The White Coat investor is a good example...his audience is physicians and his advice is good for them but not for the ordinary Joe.

 

[jazz4cash]

I don’t really think you can retire that young without realizing how many variables could alter your plan. Therefore a decision to take a sabbatical vs retirement seems much more practical (unless you’re more interested in drawing attention by proclaiming that you are FIREd at 34).

 

[Markola]

The “Here’s what I did wrong” angle doesn’t seem as accurate as “I’m making different choices than my previous choices.”

 

[Chris7]

It seems his biggest problem is insisting on remaining in the Bay Area. He talks about real estate holdings in the MidWest. Maybe he should move into one of them.



Most people will not be able to relate to not being able to live on $250K a year.


cd :O)

 

[RunningBum]

That's my problem with the guy - his complete lack of perspective. There's a loooooong way between how he wants to live and "abject poverty", and it's insulting to poor people to ignore that.

That part really bugged me too.

 

[brokrken]

That's why I'm retiring in low COLA North Carolina

My plan as well

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Median household income in SF is $96K, so it is not really an income issue with FS but a spending one.

 

[harley]

Two, he intends on shifting from treating his blog as a hobby to “monetizing it”, but still considers that retirement (sounds more like work to me).

This from a guy with 30K+ posts on the forum for free? Lol!

 

[Starsky]

Sure, why does a guy who calls himself a "Financial Samurai" use a 10-year bond interest rate as the basis for all his calculations?

The Real Financial Samurai:​

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsEZ2lpM0Yw

 

[Koolau]

I could "save" this guy's "ER" if he would hire me to reorganize his spending. I'd only charge 10% of assets per year to do it. I wonder how he would like living in Mississippi.

 

[audreyh1]

Most of all, though, he was only “retired” for 7 years, and over than period the sp500 was up more than 2.5 times, yet his financial plan failed. And his new plan is to make money by working in finance and running a blog that gives financial advice?

This part had me stumped. Did he mostly avoid equities and depend on bond income?

 

[BoodaGazelle]

If even part of your income is from your status as a “financial samurai” blogger, doesn’t admitting that you made such non-FIRE mistakes mean that your blog income will start to decline?

Just sayin...

 

[ncbill]

It seems his biggest problem is insisting on remaining in the Bay Area. He talks about real estate holdings in the MidWest. Maybe he should move into one of them.

Most people will not be able to relate to not being able to live on $250K a year.

cd :O)

$250k passive income would work just fine in SF for an existing homeowner like himself if he didn't keep adding arbitrary expenses, like assuming tens of thousands of bucks a year for private school for a single child.

When we wanted to send our kids to private school here we made sure mom got employed there...the last semester both kids were in school (8th grade & 12th grade) we paid only ~$2,500.

 

[MichealKnight]

I want to vomit in my mouth. Yes, I do.

Circumstances may have me retiring next year at age 45.

I'm *hoping* to earn long term returns of 5% per year. If I can make 5%, and inflation is between 2-3% - I can live just fine.

AND THIS GUY, WHO IS SMART, AND LEARNED, AND WELL VERSED IN INVESTING COULDN'T DO IT? AND HE WAS MAKING $80,000 ON 3 MILLION THAT'S NOT EVEN 3%.

I'm mildly terrified.

Mind you, in my "living expenses" I've got "fluff" built in for extra health and dental expenses. Heck I've even built in $2000 per year of income taxes that don't even exist today. My family size is set in that there's 2 young kids and NO more on the way, i'll take a knife and scissors and sewing kit to myself before I have another one. I'm happy with our house - it's totally paid off and i'll downsize it by 60% when kids done with school and high school. If I have unexpected expenses - I've got at least $12,000 per year in luxuries i'd cut.

Geez. It was a gut punch reading that this guy couldn't do it.