shotgunner
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2008
- Messages
- 534
I thought I was entering ER this past April. Thankfully I am working P/T at my former employer through 6/30/09 and this has reduced the amount of portfolio reduction so far in year 1 by more than half.
Using April as my benchmark my portfolio stood at $1,040,000 with a 50/50 position of equities vs fixed assets. My draw was starting at $40,000 a year with 4% inflation factor, 30 year term, Soc. Security Income of $16K annually kicking in at 2019. (I don't think I need 40K but it allows for extras, 36K would be more normal).
I have not included the value of my house, owned outright, market analysis this past weekend of $215,000.
Fircalc returned a 100% and as I adjusted the portfolio value down it seemed there was a significant margin of safety before going under 100%.
6 months later my total portfolio with no change to AA by me now stands at just under 900K. Somewhere around $875K I start slipping into less than 100% probabilities.
I have not shaved even one year off the 30 years starting at a benchmark I set in April and my portfolio may not continue to show 100% certainty for much longer.
Is FireCalc something one should be using periodically throughout the year, or once a year or should it be fire and forget and keep my portfolio at the 50/50 AA at the start of each calendar year. Or is the answer none of the above.
Earlier this year as I was getting ready to start an ER I took some confidence that FireCalc showed I would have made it even if starting a retirement at the start of the Great Depression. Now I wonder.
I appreciate all thoughts on my scenario
Using April as my benchmark my portfolio stood at $1,040,000 with a 50/50 position of equities vs fixed assets. My draw was starting at $40,000 a year with 4% inflation factor, 30 year term, Soc. Security Income of $16K annually kicking in at 2019. (I don't think I need 40K but it allows for extras, 36K would be more normal).
I have not included the value of my house, owned outright, market analysis this past weekend of $215,000.
Fircalc returned a 100% and as I adjusted the portfolio value down it seemed there was a significant margin of safety before going under 100%.
6 months later my total portfolio with no change to AA by me now stands at just under 900K. Somewhere around $875K I start slipping into less than 100% probabilities.
I have not shaved even one year off the 30 years starting at a benchmark I set in April and my portfolio may not continue to show 100% certainty for much longer.
Is FireCalc something one should be using periodically throughout the year, or once a year or should it be fire and forget and keep my portfolio at the 50/50 AA at the start of each calendar year. Or is the answer none of the above.
Earlier this year as I was getting ready to start an ER I took some confidence that FireCalc showed I would have made it even if starting a retirement at the start of the Great Depression. Now I wonder.
I appreciate all thoughts on my scenario