Major Tom, regarding LTC from the BH site:
Bogleheads • View topic - "The dangers of long-term care insurance"
Bogleheads • View topic - "The dangers of long-term care insurance"
firecalc success factor ,confidence in..
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Major Tom
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Thanks - and I realize now that we were mostly talking at cross-purposes, due mainly to my fuzzy thinking. Although I have thought on occasion about the cost of long term care, my main concern is more with the practicality of it i.e. who is going to pick my sorry behind up off the floor and cart me into a home if and when I go ga-ga, as well as taking care of whatever paperwork needs to be done?
That thread confirmed what I suspected - that I'll probably have enough to cover the cost of a few years of LTC without purchasing a separate policy. I'm such a loner though (and the only family members who are close by and would be willing to help out, are older than me), that I could end up without anyone to put me in a home should I need to go into one.
So, although it may sound a bit irresponsible to some, for the time being at least, I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. More likely, I'll miss the bridge, fall down the embankment and end up in the water wondering what happened to my glasses and false teeth!
Actually, I'm on the same page as you and in the same situation. I don't intend to account for LTC because they'd probably leave my behind on the floor no matter where I was.
Midpack
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
True, but not sure what conclusion you're driving at with your last sentence?And that is the dilemma. You can continue saving for many extra years to create the illusion of safety in retirement or you can retire years earlier with "risk." It definitely becomes a personality test as someone mentioned earlier.
My opinion is that "failure" of most reasonable plans will be something that wasn't considered and probably couldn't have been predicted. The US dollar could collapse, the US loses a major war, plague, pestilence and famine. Think Germany after WWI and II...Japan after WWII....Venezuela after Chavez (the fun continues) or any of the other disasters to a national currency and infrastructure. Having a 100% safe FireCalc or 163% of the 100% safe asset level won't spare you from the collapse.
As you know, Dr W Bernstein famously discussed this issue The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III. His conclusion still makes sense IMO.
All 5 parts are worthwhile reading for most retirees, especially for keeping calculators in perspective. They help, but they don't guarantee anything or give "right answers."
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Another excellent response, Midpack. I might add another "fools errand" might be possibly overestimating one's longetivity (as in my case, planning for well over 100% PF success and PF end at 95 when chances are quite high I'll see an end of life before I'll see that PF end date).
GalaxyBoy
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I was going to post the link to Berstein's article, but Midpack beat me to it, and with a better quote than I would have posted.
But I just keep in mind that with Firecalc, just as with many other things in life, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." Backtesting various scenarios using historical data only goes but so far, especially when the historical data goes back about three or four times the duration you're analyzing.
So, I'm working OMY.
But I just keep in mind that with Firecalc, just as with many other things in life, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." Backtesting various scenarios using historical data only goes but so far, especially when the historical data goes back about three or four times the duration you're analyzing.
So, I'm working OMY.
robnplunder
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At the end of the day, I will go into RE with my eyes wide open whether I have 80% or 100% firecalc number.
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I use FireCalc as one source of information. I also ran some Monte-Carlo simulations using other retirement planners, and did my own SS calculations. I trust the results in the context of "Trust but verify" every year or two. If some exogenous factor upsets the plans, then I will pivot and and run a new route. At some point, when I feel I don't have what it takes to 'verify' I might just put it all in PSSSSTTT.....Wellesly and collect the income.
foxfirev5
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It's a useful tool for me. However it's just a starting point, There are too many variables in the future to blindly follow any calculator. I view retirement as the start of a new adventure not the end of working and planning.
Live And Learn
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Hmmmm, DH and I are in the same situation. Maybe we can start a "will you take care of my sorry butt" support group where we make a pact to watch out for each other ?
If you have a DH you're already an order of magnitude above me and, I believe, MajorTom. I have a Dachshund.
Instead of a "will you take care of my sorry butt" support group, why not just a simple tontine? The last one standing gets the money.
Rustward
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FireCalc is just a planning tool. There are no guarantees. There are events possible that no person or tool can predict.
However, I have read that people who actually look at their finances, budget (however loosely they might do so), and use tools like FireCalc (and the other similar ones) are usually more successful. The success probably comes from actively attending to their finances rather than seeing 100% success rate in FireCalc.
Louis, I am chalking this up as a typo.
However, I have read that people who actually look at their finances, budget (however loosely they might do so), and use tools like FireCalc (and the other similar ones) are usually more successful. The success probably comes from actively attending to their finances rather than seeing 100% success rate in FireCalc.
Louis, I am chalking this up as a typo.
I retired four years before joining this esteemed forum, so I did not know about FireCalc before I jumped ship. I used my previous two years of expenses, a few other simple retirement calculators and my own best guess to decide. I'm in my seventh year of retirement, so far, so good !
Major Tom
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I think your Dachshund will be of more use than my 3 cats - but only marginally.
I don't think it's the money any of us are bothered about - it has more to do with who is going to shovel us into a home when we're not able to do it for ourselves. Better start training that little doggie!
Yes. All that money just sitting there is useless if it can't be actuated by a sentient being with functioning faculties & at least some mobility. Money doesn't spend. People spend.
shotgunner
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FIRCALC is a good tool but it is at best a foggy crystal ball. Not all the unforeseen variables are bad or problematic.
Neither FIRECALC or I could see the ACA coming when I moved from full time employment to semi-fired in 2008. The ACA has reduced my net annual living expenses by more than 11%.
My reserve if you will that I do not factor into any FIRECALC scenario is the value of my home and the potential cash flow a reverse mortgage could provide.
Neither FIRECALC or I could see the ACA coming when I moved from full time employment to semi-fired in 2008. The ACA has reduced my net annual living expenses by more than 11%.
My reserve if you will that I do not factor into any FIRECALC scenario is the value of my home and the potential cash flow a reverse mortgage could provide.
ERD50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
We are getting a little taste of this up close and personal. My MIL & FIL are facing aging issues (mainly physical/eyesight, but also some mental abilities fading), and even though they are in a retirement community, they have become very dependent on their nearby children's families. It isn't any big effort on our part (and we would be glad to do much more if needed), but it has been an eye-opener. Just little things like doing the shopping for them, helping them find things (they loose them and either can't remember or can't see or can't reach behind or under a chair to find where it fell), they need help filling out forms, getting to doctors, etc. It all adds up.
All in all, it isn't much effort to help them out, but what would they do w/o these little assists? Who do you trust to fill out a financial form, deposit a check at the bank, make sure the bills are paid, etc? It's a little scary to think what could happen if they didn't have trusted family around.
-ERD50
enjoyinglife102
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Like others, I run all kinds of scenarios through Firecalc and a few other tools. It's all one on-going process to live the best life possible adjusting to whatever comes our way. Speaking of which, there is no chance I'm sacrificing a single dollar of living to simply exist. To each their own but long term care to have someone feed me, change my diaper and tell me my name was an easy budget cut. After seeing several nursing homes, one day hopefully society will be as humane to people as we are to dogs.
+1
Loved it.
+1
Loved it.
Nah, since childhood, I've been an extremely independent person, always figuring no one was going to take care of me but me. This is to a fault because I won't even take up friends' offers to take me to the hospital when necessary. I just take myself there, then take myself home.
Quite frankly, when I get to the point where I can't pay bills, deposit a check, or fill out a form, I won't want to be around. I will already have arranged my final exit while I was still functioning. Til then, I just party on
REWahoo
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Once again, an excellent plan that can be difficult if not impossible to execute. I've seen more than a few with "Smith & Wesson" insurance plans fail due to a sudden stroke or other severe mentally debilitating condition. By the time they realized they should file a claim (if they ever did) it was too late to collect on the policy.
Without going into detail, I've had experience with this in the past. On death's doorstep at the time, it came "this" close to happening. Then it didn't. I'm unconcerned with these sorts of things now as I've learned the very hard way that 1001 other things can/will happen first. Asteroid strikes come in a variety of packages, and it's not what happens, it's what you do with it. 20 years later, I'm kind of shocked at how brilliantly (IMHO) I handled the entire situation. As to being mentally disabled, some people would say I"m already there...
robnplunder
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Me, too. Is this a Los Angeles thing
? Although, when I broke my shoulder and dislocated another (two separate incidents), I had to ask someone to drive. I had a stick shift car at the time and I could not physically drive it.And I thought I was the only true stoic. I have also nearly crossed over a few times but gutted it out. A week after my 39th birthday I had an anaphylactic reaction to a fairly common prescription drug. It was like 4 o'Clock on a Sunday morning and I didn't want to call 911 and wake everybody up and maybe take the ambulance away from some old guy who might be having a heart attack at the same time. And just wasn't convinced I really had only 10 or 15 minutes left to live. So I concluded that since I was able to stand up and actually consider these options I was able to drive myself to the E.R. covered with welts and trying to drive faster than my tongue could swell
When I think about it I go back and forth on whether I was strong and brave or muthuh-effin' stupid. But I suppose I could have been both
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