Firecalc vs reality

[ncbound]

I discovered Firecalc a few weeks ago and have been obsessed with crunching numbers. I'm planning on retiring in 2 years at age 55. For those that have been retired for a while - I was wondering how your Firecalc results compare to real life. Thanks.

 

[pb4uski]

I'm pretty sure that my actual results for my first 10 years of retirement aligns very well with at least one of those squiggly lines.

I can give you a better answer in 20 years.

 

[mrfeh]

I discovered Firecalc a few weeks ago and have been obsessed with crunching numbers. I'm planning on retiring in 2 years at age 55. For those that have been retired for a while - I was wondering how your Firecalc results compare to real life. Thanks.

Not sure what you're asking...firecalc doesn't attempt to predict the future. It shows how your portfolio/income streams would have fared in the past.

 

[Dtail]

Since it is rare that anyone actually withdraws 4% inflation adjusted yearly in a linear fashion, the results would not truly be apples to apples.
It is best used in a pre retirement am I ready scenario.
Others do use it in a retirement anew each year concept.

 

[bizlady]

Run your numbers in several calculators. Firecalc, i-opr.com, and also Fidelity has a good planner. Lots of variables, including your correct input and the market make a difference. That said, each of those calculators gave (and still give) me very similar results, which gave us high confidence on retirement by 55.

Nothing is a guarantee, but these tools will give you a current snapshot of the likelihood of success.

 

[FANOFJESUS]

Firecalc is good. I also use portfolio visualizer starting in 2000 to test ideas. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VFINX&allocation1_1=100

 

[bingybear]

you are comparing apples to grapes.
you will have a single plot on how your assets vary over the rest of your life.
Firecalc will run many data sets and calculate likelihood that you will run out of money before you diel

 

[Midpack]

I discovered Firecalc a few weeks ago and have been obsessed with crunching numbers. I'm planning on retiring in 2 years at age 55. For those that have been retired for a while - I was wondering how your Firecalc results compare to real life. Thanks.

As others have said, it doesn’t “compare to real life.” I’ll illustrate with pictures (that you’ve seen). Which line would you “compare to?” FIRECALC is an axe (vs a scalpel) to help users to develop a target portfolio amount to shoot for, not a retirement spending plan.

 

[TheWizard]

Focusing on the "reality" part of the OP's question, I would say that in my ninth year of retirement now, my personal plot would be one in the upper half of the preceding graph.

This is especially true in my case after starting age 70 SS last year...

 

[MRG]

After 8 years it's spot on one of those lines.

Best to control the things you can like asset allocation and maybe think about a cash buffer?

I remember when I was doing the same thing as you are. After 8 years I am more confident and relaxed. That is why I don't think you're going to find many people who saved a projection from the past to compare with today. Perhaps I'm underestimating the board.

 

[RobbieB]

Ok, real world numbers.

Retired 7 years ago and have been spending at 5 to 7% WR the whole time.

Investable assets up 50% and net worth up 45%. Blow That Dough!

 

[Dtail]

After 8 years it's spot on one of those lines.

Best to control the things you can like asset allocation and maybe think about a cash buffer?

I remember when I was doing the same thing as you are. After 8 years I am more confident and relaxed. That is why I don't think you're going to find many people who saved a projection from the past to compare with today. Perhaps I'm underestimating the board.

I do run Firecalc at year end and save those results using effectively a retire again and again concept.
I love playing with numbers in general, so there is that.

 

[FANOFJESUS]

you are comparing apples to grapes.
you will have a single plot on how your assets vary over the rest of your life.
Firecalc will run many data sets and calculate likelihood that you will run out of money before you diel

True but starting with a bear is good to test a portfolio's toughness. Two bears in the first ten years that should be a good test.

 

[Dtail]

True but starting with a bear is good to test a portfolio's toughness. Two bears in the first ten years that should be a good test.

IIRC, the 2000 yr retiree is still surviving and is not in the top 5 of worst years to begin a retirement.

 

[youbet]

True but starting with a bear is good to test a portfolio's toughness. Two bears in the first ten years that should be a good test.

If you really want to test "toughness" start at the beginning of a period of high inflation.

 

[TheWizard]

If you really want to test "toughness" start at the beginning of a period of high inflation.

Interesting that you mention that.
The economy is JUST getting heated up for that...

 

[Dd852]

I was blessed to start FIRE in 2012. The market has gained far more than I’ve wanted to spend so “sequence of returns” has been my friend. I’m better off now than i was. If the next 10 years instead are low/no gains high inflation, and you retire today, follow a 1966 scenario to see how you’ll do. It is all about how the markets treat you particularly in the first few years of Fire. Stay alert, flexible, and don’t spend crazily until you have a better feel for how your base years are playing out.

 

[Looking4Ward]

Ok, real world numbers.

Retired 7 years ago and have been spending at 5 to 7% WR the whole time.

Investable assets up 50% and net worth up 45%. Blow That Dough!

Same here. 7 years later up 45% from what I started with even after spending more than double what I had thought I would. I know that can't last forever but it's comforting to know I've successfully navigated thru those critical early years of RE.

 

[ncbound]

Thanks

Thanks for all the replies. The more I look at our numbers and read this forum the more confident and excited we get about retiring early.

 

[latexman]

Where in NC are you bound for?

 

[ncbound]

Where in NC are you bound for?

Great question. We don't really know yet. We kind of like the idea of living near Raleigh, but home prices seem to be increasing and everything we look at online gets gobbled quickly. I would imagine it will get worse with Apple's latest announcement. The area around Winston Salem/Greensboro looks like it might have possibilities. We live near Erie, Pa so we just want to move somewhere that doesn't get 100+ inches of snow every winter...

 

[W2R]

I agree with what everybody else has been saying on this thread.

I'd like to add my own personal reflections on FIRECalc. It's scary to me when now and then, someone comes here and says that they plan to retire even though their FIRECalc results were not great.

When I retired, I wanted great results not only from FIRECalc, but every other retirement calculator. I also crunched my own numbers and ran them through every test or scenario I could possibly think of. What else does somebody have to do during their last few years at work? Beat those numbers to death!

Then remember that once you retire, if you have to modify your budget a bit from time to time then you can probably do that, just like you did a thousand times before retirement.