Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Has anybody changed their mind about their investing strategy going forward?
Old 03-24-2020, 07:12 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 204
Has anybody changed their mind about their investing strategy going forward?

As I reflect back, I am glad that I have mix of 60/40 AA for long term assets, individual stocks for dividend investing, and rental portfolio. I also have about 1-2 years worth of cash. I have paid off our mortgages for my primary and my investment properties, despite the math that indicates over a very long term stocks over-perform real estate and bond.

Now of course, if I knew (not conjecture) that the market would drop 30%+ the last 3 weeks, I would have change my actions, but going forward, I am not planning to change anything about my overall portfolio allocation.

Reading everybody's post about their reactions, I'm sensing those that are buy /hold are still committed to that strategy, including those that are 100%. Those who sold to cash are still committed to that strategy. Those who invest in real estate are doing the same. I am guessing that outside of those that are panicking right now, most people will stick with their strategy.

Is this correct? If you plan to change, what was your strategy before and what changes are you planning to make?
__________________

Toocold is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-24-2020, 07:18 AM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 654
For a longest time, we've been in bond funds, TIPs funds, and cash only. When our CA house sold in late 2018 and we moved into our new TX house in June 2019, we ended up with a lot more cash. Late last year, we decided we could afford to invest some in stock funds with the belief that if the funds magically disappeared, our retirement wouldn't be impacted.

After seeing what happened to our bond funds and how they failed us in terms of holding steady while the stock markets cratered, it actually may push us toward making the decision to go with some stocks. It won't be a high percentage of our AA, but likely better than what we have been doing. But when and how? I don't think anyone really knows at this point.
__________________

statsman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 07:19 AM   #3
Moderator
braumeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Flyover country
Posts: 14,532
I change my mind frequently. But I'm smart enough not to follow through on it.
__________________
I thought growing old would take longer.
braumeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 08:11 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 1,239
Just minor tweaks to my thoughts:
  • I'm following a bond tent type of strategy and was thinking of ramping back up to 65/35 over the next decade - I now think I'll stop at 60/40. I'm really liking bond tents for early retirees now.
  • When to rebalance? Wow. I have rebalance bands and in the past rebalanced immediately when I hit them. So on March 10 I did a relatively minor rebalance from total bond market into international stock - that wasn't helpful. Since then my AA has moved out of band and stayed there (with massive volatility). So now I'm thinking some kind of rule that allows momentum to do its thing before I pull the trigger. Maybe out of band on two or three consecutive weekends before rebalancing. I guess I could use moving averages but that would take a lot more tracking than I do now - so no.
  • Glad I took money off the table and paid off the mortgage in 2017.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
USGrant1962 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 08:13 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Big_Hitter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: In the fairway
Posts: 5,417
sort of - I have a CD maturing friday that I was going to dump into T - now I'm thinking I dump it into my savings account....
__________________
Swing hard, look up
Big_Hitter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 08:16 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Washington State
Posts: 1,212
I transferred 10K from our taxable brokerage account to our high interest savings account, but it had nothing to do with investing strategy. I just wanted more cash on hand in case we're out of work and need money to live on. My taxable account is in a tax free bond fund and hasn't lost much during this market drop, so the losses I locked in were minimal.

Otherwise, I'm sticking to my 50/50 allocation, though it's running a bit bond heavy now with the stock market down.
mountainsoft is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 08:19 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 5,888
Quote:
Originally Posted by braumeister View Post
I change my mind frequently. But I'm smart enough not to follow through on it.
Good point. This is not the best time to change strategy. Thinking about how you feel is very important. But talk it over as much as possible.

We're looking very carefully at the expense side of the equation. Call it tactical rather than strategic.
target2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 08:29 AM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 204
Quote:
After seeing what happened to our bond funds and how they failed us in terms of holding steady while the stock markets cratered, it actually may push us toward making the decision to go with some stocks.
Now that I think about it, I did change my AA in terms of my fixed income. I was planning to do 40% total bond fund, but I am now 20% total bond fund / 20% MMF. After this scenario is over, I need to seriously think about what to do here - either continuing to shorten my duration or go laddered CDs.
Toocold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 08:37 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 3,027
I had been following a plan to reduce my equity AA by 1% with each ~4% rise in the market. When that comes back into play down the road I think I will increase it to 2% AA reduction.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 10:53 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
dixonge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Zacatecas, MX
Posts: 1,250
I've done just a couple of things differently, so far. I've not touched our main investment accounts. Hurts seeing them drop this far (back up 9.5% today - woot!) but un-needed. As an alternative short-term strategy, depending on how long this bear lasts, I plan on keeping more of our future income savings in cash. I doubt this strategy will last beyond the end of this year, but that's one way of playing it safe since these are uncertain times.

I have also made extra ATM withdrawals since it cost me less right now (peso moved from 20 to 25 pesos per dollar!) That's just a minor currency arbitrage.

I am also reminded that there are a couple of banks here with crazy CD rates. Time to maybe put some money there as well. Nothing crazy, just a slight amount of diversification.
dixonge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 02:56 PM   #11
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 29
The only thing Iím tweaking is to have my advisor shift a slightly greater amount of my AA to high quality dividend stocks to be sure my interest and dividends can meet my living expenses even if stocks dive 90 percent. In the last couple of weeks he had me in a couple non-dividend stocks which have performed well but he had reduced my investment income to below my annual expenses. I wonít let that happen again. Otherwise Iím a long-term holder (49 yo).
MikeyMarks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 03:56 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 408
I don't know that I'll change my investment strategy any differently. I was conservative at about 40% equities back on Feb 19. By March 23, I dropped to the low to mid 30% range due to the market tanking with no change in my investments. However, I will rebalance after the market drops further. I see today as temporary gain based on potential/likely stimulus, and it will soon be back down even lower than the recent drop.
GenXguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 03:58 PM   #13
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by GenXguy View Post
I don't know that I'll change my investment strategy any differently. I was conservative at about 40% equities back on Feb 19. By March 23, I dropped to the low to mid 30% range due to the market tanking with no change in my investments. However, I will rebalance after the market drops further. I see today as temporary gain based on potential/likely stimulus, and it will soon be back down even lower than the recent drop.


Given your username I assume youíre in your late 40ís (like me) or early 50ís, so Iím curious about your AA. You seem to have a very low equity concentration. How come?
MikeyMarks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 06:13 PM   #14
Full time employment: Posting here.
rk911's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: DuPage County IL
Posts: 687
nope. staying pat. long term investor.
__________________
Rich
Ham Radio, Sport Pilot
FIRE: 8/11/2005, age 55y,1d
Administrator for a regional 9-1-1 call center
rk911 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 06:21 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 5,509
Quote:
Originally Posted by dixonge View Post
I've done just a couple of things differently, so far. I've not touched our main investment accounts. Hurts seeing them drop this far (back up 9.5% today - woot!) but un-needed. As an alternative short-term strategy, depending on how long this bear lasts, I plan on keeping more of our future income savings in cash. I doubt this strategy will last beyond the end of this year, but that's one way of playing it safe since these are uncertain times.

I have also made extra ATM withdrawals since it cost me less right now (peso moved from 20 to 25 pesos per dollar!) That's just a minor currency arbitrage.

I am also reminded that there are a couple of banks here with crazy CD rates. Time to maybe put some money there as well. Nothing crazy, just a slight amount of diversification.
Aren't the Mexican bank CD's lacking any FDIC type insurance?
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 06:26 PM   #16
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 886
I started investing about 30 years ago. 20 years ago, when the market dropped by half during the dot-com bust, I still had relatively little in savings, and a long way to go in the accumulation phase, so I did not panic. In 2008-09, I didn't change course after a 50% drop, having already experienced one a few years ago. But I did consider capitulating if the market dropped 70% (which thankfully it didn't), but then realized that made no sense because by then my stock allocation would be so small I couldn't lose much more and would lock out potential gains by capitulating. So now, faced with a current drop of about 30%, I've already seen worse twice in my investing lifetime, and know I can ride it out, so I have been less tempted than ever to change course.
Which Roger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 06:40 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,037
Quote:
Originally Posted by rk911 View Post
nope. staying pat. long term investor.


+1. Everybody is an investing genius during a bull but bears are when mistakes get made.
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 06:58 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 22,386
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeyMarks View Post
The only thing Iím tweaking is to have my advisor shift a slightly greater amount of my AA to high quality dividend stocks to be sure my interest and dividends can meet my living expenses even if stocks dive 90 percent. In the last couple of weeks he had me in a couple non-dividend stocks which have performed well but he had reduced my investment income to below my annual expenses. I wonít let that happen again. Otherwise Iím a long-term holder (49 yo).
Once again, divs are not magic. Dividends are the equivalent of the company selling off a portion of itself. If they didn't distribute that div, it would be retained on their balance sheet, and would be reflected in a higher NAV. You can do that yourself, sell a bit, when and in the amounts you wish.

If you look at total return, you'll see this. You can take the company's value out in divs, or take it out by selling a bit (that they retained because they didn't already give it to you). All else being equal, the results are equal.

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 07:11 PM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
mistermike40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 162
High level, I'm 60/40... but as the market continues down, I've been bumping my equities by 4%... I'm now at 84/16.

The caveat: my pension covers all my current living expenses. Of course, it would be nice if the market does well, giving me some extra "play" money (e.g. I took $50K out this January and put in an online savings account.. haven't touched it yet, though I've used some of last year's withdrawal).

My rationale: I can go one, two, five, even ten years without having to make a 401k withdrawal. Again, I hope that's not the case, but I doubt I would make a withdrawal before the market recovered anyway (regardless of my AA)... I may as well buy "low" and wait it out.
__________________
ďIt's a terrible thing, I think, in life to wait until you're ready. I have this feeling now that actually no one is ever ready to do anything. There is almost no such thing as ready. There is only now. And you may as well do it now. Generally speaking, now is as good a time as any - Hugh Laurie
mistermike40 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2020, 07:23 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,085
Nope, using the Bogle model during these uncertain times, stand there and do nothing.
__________________

__________________
The only thing constant in life is change.
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Poll: Have You Ever Completely Changed Your Mind On A Forum Thread? Midpack Other topics 101 02-08-2020 06:37 PM
Poll: Has social media changed investing... kgtest FIRE and Money 4 03-16-2019 11:39 AM
Has anybody ever fired their Vanguard flagship rep Quantum Sufficit FIRE and Money 5 04-24-2018 08:41 PM
Forward Tax Planning Strategy frayne FIRE and Money 15 04-12-2018 11:43 AM
Anybody have a problem with their back "going out" on them Mulligan Health and Early Retirement 32 09-03-2012 07:19 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:10 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
×