Brat
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Look at the bottom of this month's commentary for links to llife expectancy calculators.
http://www.fundalarm.com/hilights.htm
http://www.fundalarm.com/hilights.htm
Aspirin increases the risk of hemorrhagic stroke, so you should ask your doctor before taking it.
I think that once you plan for a retirement time of about 50-60 years that you are close to the "steady-state" infinite withdrawal rate .
I have ball-parked the early 90's for my exit and feel that's close enough for $ planning. And my assets are only part of the equation - I also plan to have SS and a modest pension - so I doubt I'll ever be living under a bridge. If I get desperate enough, I can always load up on pain-killers and go take a stroll on the ice when I'm in my 90's. I have a paid up LTC policy, so a broken hip should yield a warm bed and three squares.
Bob: When you're taking a stroll on the ice, don't count on me for rescue work.
I remember about 20 years ago while I was in my late 40's, my wife and I took a test on TV, and she came out alright, but I am supposed to be dead now.
Every day is a bonus now as far as I am concerned, and even though my wife keeps telling me that I am going to outlive her, I know it's bull----.
I have already told my kids that if by some strange stroke of fate, I actually live longer than my wife, they probably should come up to my property and roll me down the canyon, because I would make their life unbearable.
But in the mean time, I try to spend my "bonus" time playing golf and fly fishing as much as possible
Aint life great?
Regards, Jarhead
"Mostly"? Probably so. But I'm going to hang on to that little bit that isn't delusional.If you think you are going to be driving around in a Convertable chasing Blondes at age 90, you are mostly deluding yourself.
My plan is to be killed at age 95 by a jealous husband.If I get desperate enough, I can always load up on pain-killers and go take a stroll on the ice when I'm in my 90's.
With a long lifespan of 90+, maybe it pays to begin collecting SS payments at 66 or even 70.
Hyper,
I agree, and unfortunately little of the SWR literature ever wants to posit a 'perpetual' SWR based on limited history. Every study wants to give you a 20- or 30- or 40-year max.
I've sought out a different approach to SWR which is done by a researcher at Zunna, named Keith Marbach. His work has generally been applied to foundations who need to operate and withdraw in perpetuity. Keith's unique approach is to look for the percent likelihood that the Portfolio will not decline in real terms under the SWR regimen, and aims for 90%. Coincidentally (?) the 10% 'failures' in these studies seem to result in a real value of the Portfolio no less than 90% of the original (at least in the scenarios I was looking at).
http://www.zunna.com/Research/LCBT4600InfAdj.pdf
If we were a regular retirement Board, I could see us accepting the regular 20-, 30-, 40- year methodologies. But as an Early Retirement Board, (with all the facts on how we can live to be 100), I think we need something better and longer, in spite of the difficulty with straight historical series on these long cycles. Anyone found any ideas/methodologies/studies they like a lot?
My only though on aspirin is that I was always told it would burn holes in the lining of your stomach, so that, unpleasant as it may sound, you should crunch the thing in your teeth just prior to swallowing to give it a better dispersion. Don't ever take the things myself, anymore, though.
ESRBob
Hyper,
I agree, and unfortunately little of the SWR literature ever wants to posit a 'perpetual' SWR based on limited history. Every study wants to give you a 20- or 30- or 40-year max.
I've sought out a different approach to SWR which is done by a researcher at Zunna, named Keith Marbach. His work has generally been applied to foundations who need to operate and withdraw in perpetuity. Keith's unique approach is to look for the percent likelihood that the Portfolio will not decline in real terms under the SWR regimen, and aims for 90%. Coincidentally (?) the 10% 'failures' in these studies seem to result in a real value of the Portfolio no less than 90% of the original (at least in the scenarios I was looking at).
http://www.zunna.com/Research/LCBT4600InfAdj.pdf
If we were a regular retirement Board, I could see us accepting the regular 20-, 30-, 40- year methodologies. But as an Early Retirement Board, (with all the facts on how we can live to be 100), I think we need something better and longer, in spite of the difficulty with straight historical series on these long cycles. Anyone found any ideas/methodologies/studies they like a lot?
ESRBob
My solution to plan for perpetuality is to use intercst's RE spreadsheet, and adjust the SWR so that at the end of the worst 30-year period, you would still have the initial capital, inflation-adjusted. This gotta be one of the most conservative ways. It gives SWR of about 2.75%.