How much do you listen/read/get information from experts?

[HFWR]

My expert...

 

[bclover]

My expert...

OMG, I just laughed coke up out of my nose. that is what I need.

BC

 

[Throwdownmyaceinthehole]

Scott Burns, that's it.

 

[HFWR]

OMG, I just laughed coke up out of my nose. that is what I need.

BC

My job here is done...

Scott Burns, that's it.

Though my portfolio is slightly more complex than the "couch potato", +1.

 

[target2019]

This is more of a vent, so mods feel free to delete if it doesn't have any redeeming value....

So I haven't retired yet but I'd like to next year, I'll be 55. One aspect that I find frustrating is how everyone says how "easy" investing seems to be. Now I'm a scientist so maybe my brain is wired differently because I'm not finding it easy at all.
LOL, which is why I do appreciate you guys...

Anyhoo, here is one of my frustrations. conflicting stories every other day.

I've been trying to get a handle on my post retirement budget and reading up on taxes.

Got an article today from the Motley fool that says retirees often over state their tax bill and owe less than they thought.
two email later I got another email that says "retirees always underestimate their tax burden".

lol, so which is it? am I under or over estimating my bill

Am I the only one that gets frustrated at this or do you just carry on and try to weed out the best information for your particle situation?

When you retire you'll have enough time to spend on questions like this. There are so many annoying aspects to life, that it makes no sense to worry about little things like taxes...

I just spent an hour on the phone, mostly on hold, with the EYE ARRRGH SSS. That's IRS. When I was working like a fool for the the man@mega_dot_corp, this would have un-nerved me. Now I have time to sit here with the IRS wait music playing endlessly. I laugh out loud, even.

Turns out my 2012 and 2012 amended did get to the IRS. Gentleman on the other end was so kind, and said we should play it safe and mail in the letter with my 1040x.

Life is chock-full-of ridiculousness. Don't waste your precious time on the Motley Fool (half right with that name) or other inane `expert`.

 

[Walt34]

Finally, I suggest read Dan Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow". It is write-up of his life work as behavioral economist and has quite a bit of fun with experts.

+1 on that book. I've read it, and although a bit long I found it fascinating.

Shorter books covering similar material are Dan Ariely's Predictably Irrational, Your Money & Your Brain by Jason Zweig, and Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes by Gary Belsky & Thomas Gilovich.

I've often wondered why so many otherwise intelligent-seeming people so often do foolish things and these books answer some of those questions.

 

[supernova72]

I've always wonder why so many financial experts are still working for a living?

Now that is funny! LOL. Kind of like the person who "always wins at the casino" but can't afford to fix their car that is parked in the front yard being mowed around for years on end.

We don't allows here about the losses. Ha.

 

[Rick_Head]

OMG, I just laughed coke up out of my nose. that is what I need.

BC

What goes in, must come out. How may lines?

 

[LOL!]

I did read that folks around here give higher credence to Harvard economists.

 

[lawman3966]

The best place to start with is determining what an expert is.

If you ask a financial network host, an expert is anyone who can boost their ratings by making a "bold" prediction. In other words, he has to say something, anything, as long as it's not boring. If he or she is wrong, few will ever remember the statement or hold him/her to account for it. If he or she is right, it's an act of genius.

If you buy into the indexing paradigm, then there may be experts in risk avoidance, and tax minimization, but there really are no experts in stock picking or the like. Ultimately, you have to choose between becoming enough of an expert to make your own decisions, or trusting a salesman to be "your expert". However, in all likelihood, that advisor/salesman knows little that you don't, but may very well make you feel better by effectively pretending that he does.

 

[ERD50]

....
Finally, I suggest read Dan Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow". It is write-up of his life work as behavioral economist and has quite a bit of fun with experts.

+1 on that book. I've read it, and although a bit long I found it fascinating.

Shorter books covering similar material are Dan Ariely's Predictably Irrational, Your Money & Your Brain by Jason Zweig, and Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes by Gary Belsky & Thomas Gilovich.

I've often wondered why so many otherwise intelligent-seeming people so often do foolish things and these books answer some of those questions.

I agree that Dan Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" is a great book. Like Walt, I found it a bit long - IMO, too many pages just restating examples of the concepts - I ended up skimming a lot of it after the first 1/3rd or so. But the concepts are important to be aware of.

The Freakonomics team references back to Kahneman as well.

I'm a scientist as well. I learned to never believe what anyone said (especially scientists) without looking at the data myself and making up my own mind. In short, I don't believe anything I read at first.
... .

Yes, it was a bit of cognitive dissonance to me that the OP describes themselves as a scientist, and then is reacting to media hype, and questioning which of two contrary camps they would be in? A technical person should realize that any grouping may exclude a specific individual.

-ERD50

 

[Options]

The best place to start with is determining what an expert is.

If you ask a financial network host, an expert is anyone who can boost their ratings by making a "bold" prediction...

Or lying. Or cheating. Or being dishonest. It's happened before, is happening now (somewhere), and unless human nature turns into something never seen before, it will always happen.

No one will ever care more about you or your money than the man in the mirror. This applies particularly to anyone called an "expert".

See this:

History of Business Journalism

And then this:

http://www.amazon.com/Wrong-us-Scientists-relationship-consultants/dp/B005DI6QAM