If giving americans 600 dollars a piece keeps us out of a recession...

[Marquette]

So what's everyone going to do with their rebate?

I'm going to blow it on an ibond.

 

[JohnDoe]

So what's everyone going to do with their rebate?

I plan on putting it in my checking account and then forget about it.

I will use it for one of my vacations later this yr.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Didn't pass in the Senate today.

 

[JohnDoe]

...The dispute has slowed down the stimulus measure, but there's no indication that it will delay rebate checks, which are expected to begin arriving in May. The rebates will be based on 2007 tax returns, which aren't due until April 15.

 

[samclem]

What will I do? Donate every dime of the refund to Ralph Nader's campaign!! Everyone get on board!!

 

[HFWR]

...Ralph Nader's campaign...

Unsafe at any speed...

 

[barbarus]

Six hundred bucks?

I believe the French idiom is "[SIZE=-1]pet-en-l'air". I'm not referring to the garment.


[/SIZE]

 

[ESRBob]

A phfftttt in the wind, so to speak...
It bugs me that my kids are going to have to pay all this back so the politicians today can show the electorate they feel their pain. Anytime somebody wants to use my money to show me they feel my pain, I really get anxious...

 

[Zoocat]

...The dispute has slowed down the stimulus measure, but there's no indication that it will delay rebate checks, which are expected to begin arriving in May. The rebates will be based on 2007 tax returns, which aren't due until April 15.

Based on 2007 returns? I hadn't read that but it's good news to me! Would you please post a link to the source?

 

[myself]

Am I missing something here? Wouldn't a jobs program to say rebuild the infrastructure like say passenger rail service be a better choice? I mean put people to work, pay a good wage, have them then pay taxes on the wages, get new passenger rail service going here in the country??

How does giving you me and the butler 500 dollars keep the country out of a recession?? Odd, To borrow more money to give it back to us??

I saw a piece yesterday showing how many people would spend the 500 or 600 dollar check. Something like 48% would pay off credit card debt. Well that is a good idea but most americans have close to 15K in credit card debt!!! 600 dollars might pay a month or two of P&I at a 2% principal payment of a 15K balance. Woof! What is it like to have credit card balances of upwards of 15 or 20K making 40K a year??

All good points.
But in all honesty, I believe that we're in the midst of a recession already (for the past 6-12 months).

 

[HFWR]

The economy grew every quarter last year...

 

[GatorBuzz]

Based on 2007 returns? I hadn't read that but it's good news to me! Would you please post a link to the source?

Here's one:

My Way News - Senate Adds Aged, Vets to Stimulus Bill

 

[Zoocat]

Here's one:

My Way News - Senate Adds Aged, Vets to Stimulus Bill

Thanks. I'm glad they added disabled Vets but am also glad that the Republicans blocked the Democrats plan to enlarge the rebate (and I'm a Democrat!). Some of the Demo's additions had nothing to do with the stimulus idea.

Overall I agree with this guy:

"We have to remember that every dollar being spent on the stimulus package is being borrowed from our children. And our children's children," said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who voted against the bill.

But I would add that every dollar spent on this rebate is probably rolling off the printing presses this very moment.

 

[myself]

Am I missing something here? Wouldn't a jobs program to say rebuild the infrastructure like say passenger rail service be a better choice? I mean put people to work, pay a good wage, have them then pay taxes on the wages, get new passenger rail service going here in the country??

How does giving you me and the butler 500 dollars keep the country out of a recession?? Odd, To borrow more money to give it back to us??

I saw a piece yesterday showing how many people would spend the 500 or 600 dollar check. Something like 48% would pay off credit card debt. Well that is a good idea but most americans have close to 15K in credit card debt!!! 600 dollars might pay a month or two of P&I at a 2% principal payment of a 15K balance. Woof! What is it like to have credit card balances of upwards of 15 or 20K making 40K a year??

Yeah, that's what folks want people to believe.
We have a couple rewards credit cards that we use for everything we can. We do however PAY IN FULL every month (for more than 5 years now).
Guess what our "borrowing" was for 2007:

1. Average: $3,638
2. Maximum: $5,887
3. Minimum: $1,986

They could ignore folks like us in reports that they do (about people owing $15k). But, it's probably a way for them to *sucker* people into keeping credit cards around.
And guess what else. We netted about $610 in rewards for buying things that we already planned on buying anyway (i.e. groceries, gas, utilities).

And as for people making $40k/yr. That is again a median (or possibly average). I'm not saying people aren't making this little, or that people aren't making more, but that's what the median (or even average) would be telling us.

Again, I'm not really for the economic stimulus plan, but I'll happily put it in my savings account for when they decide to raise taxes to help offset the increased national debt.

 

[myself]

The economy grew every quarter last year...

Yeah, but isn't that what they said about 2001 (when it was occurring)?

 

[HFWR]

Yeah, but isn't that what they said about 2001 (when it was occurring)?

I can't remember that far back...

Housing peaked in 2005-2006; other troubles now rearing their ugly heads were foreseeable as well. So I agree with the proposition that the economy was softening, 3Q GDP notwithstanding, and inflation was and is a possibility. But, by definition, there was no recession last year. We could be in one now though...

 

[kombat]

In all honesty, I believe that we're in the midst of a recession already (for the past 6-12 months).

The economy grew every quarter last year.

Yeah, but isn't that what they said about 2001 (when it was occurring)?

I guess it could be, but determining whether or not we're in a recession isn't something that can be debated. It's easy to prove your statement false. According to Wikipedia, a Recession is "a decline in a country's GDP for two or more successive quarters of a year."

The GDP numbers for Q4/07 are in: 0.6%. Since a recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, and the most recent quarter was admittedly small, but was still positive, then we by definition cannot possibly be in a recession right now.

Like I said, there's really nothing to debate. The facts do not fit the definition. We are not yet in a recession.

You can say "our economy stinks" if you want, and that might be true, but we're not in a "recession." It has a real concrete meaning, and the current state of the economy does not meet the criteria.

 

[myself]

I guess it could be, but determining whether or not we're in a recession isn't something that can be debated. It's easy to prove your statement false. According to Wikipedia, a Recession is "a decline in a country's GDP for two or more successive quarters of a year."

The GDP numbers for Q4/07 are in: 0.6%. Since a recession requires 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, and the most recent quarter was admittedly small, but was still positive, then we by definition cannot possibly be in a recession right now.

Like I said, there's really nothing to debate. The facts do not fit the definition. We are not yet in a recession.

You can say "our economy stinks" if you want, and that might be true, but we're not in a "recession." It has a real concrete meaning, and the current state of the economy does not meet the criteria.

OK, according to the graphs on this webpage: http://www.data360.org/graph_group.aspx?Graph_Group_Id=149
We would have had 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Look at the lower right graph which shows GDP growth rate (the red line is the real GDP growth rate). So, it appears that the 2 consecutive quarters would have been April 2006 & July 2006.
So I was off by about 6 months.

 

[Razor]

I read someplace it takes six months to gather the figures to determine real growth. So we never know if we are in a recession until six months into it. Is this correct?

 

[myself]

I read someplace it takes six months to gather the figures to determine real growth. So we never know if we are in a recession until six months into it. Is this correct?

I've heard the same.
If you look at the graph I noted above, it shows "real GDP growth" as being negative in Q2/Q3 of 2006.
Now, I'm wondering what the definition of "out of recession" is.

 

[Marquette]

I've heard the same.
If you look at the graph I noted above, it shows "real GDP growth" as being negative in Q2/Q3 of 2006.
Now, I'm wondering what the definition of "out of recession" is.

I may be stupid (I probably am) but I can't figure out where the real GDP growth drops negative on any of those charts on the page you link.

Here's one from when I click on the GDP growth graph...

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=274

All of the bars seem to be pointing above the 0% line.

 

[HFWR]

You noticed that, too...

 

[myself]

I may be stupid (I probably am) but I can't figure out where the real GDP growth drops negative on any of those charts on the page you link.

Here's one from when I click on the GDP growth graph...

http://www.data360.org/dsg.aspx?Data_Set_Group_Id=274

All of the bars seem to be pointing above the 0% line.

I guess it depends upon your definition of the term "decline" related to GDP growth. Does that mean negative, or simply that real GDP growth was down for 2 consecutive quarters?
According to this: decline - Definitions from Dictionary.com
Definition #14 states:
14.a downward movement, as of prices or population; diminution: a decline in the stock market.

I see two red lines consecutively less than the previous one starting in April 2006.

 

[HFWR]

Not less positive growth; negative growth!!

Shrinkage...

 

[kombat]

I guess it depends upon your definition of the term "decline" related to GDP growth.

No it doesn't.

No offense, but the definition is clear. You simply misunderstand it.

"Negative" means below zero. In the context of GDP, it means negative. It means the economy shrank, not that the "growth slowed." It means that the GDP in 1 quarter was less than the GDP in the previous one. Which means the change was negative. We need that two happen for 2 quarters in a row for it to be a recession.

In the graphs you showed, the GDP got consistently bigger, every period. It never shrank at all last year. Thus, we cannot possibly be in a recession right now. From each period to the next in the graph you posted, the GDP got bigger.

Like I said, there is no room for opinion or interpretation here. The numbers are right there, and the definition is clear. "Negative" means less than 0. The growth in Q4/07 was 0.6%. That's still positive. The economy grew (albeit slowly). Thus, no recession.

I really don't know how to make it any clearer than that.