Investing in this market

[purplesky]

Have been in the oil business for decades. Have never seen a case of this supposed "gouging".

Thats funny. I had a feeling you work in the oil industry.

 

[Koolau]

I was surprised and elated that Sams gas is down 17 cents. YMMV

 

[aja8888]

Thats funny. I had a feeling you work in the oil industry.

So did I, 35 years worth, most in the field with the equipment that makes just about all the raw materials that go into everything a person owns and uses

 

[purplesky]

So did I, 35 years worth, most in the field with the equipment that makes just about all the raw materials that go into everything a person owns and uses

So you know the big oil game very well.

 

[aja8888]

So you know the big oil game very well.

Yes, oil and gas companies employ millions of people and provide goods and services to most Americans. They provide fuel to heat your house, cook your food, run farm machinery and your car, make plastics (like you are typing on), make compounds for pharmaceuticals, make fuel for aircraft, and on and on.

To make a comprehensive list of the products that come out of hydrocarbons would take a day of typing, but I am sure you get the idea!

Try living without hydrocarbons.

 

[Magus]

I am talking big picture. We all know the big oil game. No silly numbers needed.

My entire adult life the American middle class has been fleeced by big oil.

Fiduciary responsibility and it's just capitalism. Thats fine.

I look forward to shopping at Costco while my car charges.

Fleecing by oil? Strange POV 1) for an industry with 8% margins and 2) nearly our entire increase in standard of living in the last century is because of oil. And even if you have an electric car, most of the parts were acquired with oil energy, the majority of your electricity is oil energy and every product you buy has direct and indirect oil energy in it.

It’s really mind blowing to me that oil allowed me to get to Paris for 0.3% of the typical American annual household income in 2019 or for a couple hundred bucks of gasoline, travel more miles in a couple days than a typical human did in their entire lives 120 years ago. Sure I would love to eventually have all of us on nuclear energy but what an amazing world changing product. I for one am extremely thankful for oil. We’d have 1900 standard of living without it.

Disclosure: I work in consumer food industry now, was in hotel industry and super market industry, never oil or anything close to oil. Oil costs increases have always been bad for me and I do not own any oil stocks directly (I’m sure I do in index funds)

 

[madatrub]

Thats funny. I had a feeling you work in the oil industry.

Either way, I've spent a career living the boom or bust mentality in oil. When prices are low, we're ghosts. When prices are high, its all our fault.

When oil prices are low, refineries cut CAPEX. When prices are high, refineries increase CAPEX.

But, like everything, it has to be politicized, and in the age of social media, every piece of bad info gets elevated.

Like aja8888 says, if people are serious about hating on oil, then they should endeavor to do their part and stop using the products. My bet is most will make it about 5 minutes.

 

[OldShooter]

One thing that has always amused me is that most people would agree that a personal secret will be quickly revealed if even one other person is let in. Yet those same people happily hypothesize plots that would involve tens or hundreds of thousand people keeping their mouths shut for long periods of time. Moreover the creators of these huge plots must also have been able to keep the plot from internal whistleblowers.

 

[purplesky]

Either way, I've spent a career living the boom or bust mentality in oil. When prices are low, we're ghosts. When prices are high, its all our fault.

When oil prices are low, refineries cut CAPEX. When prices are high, refineries increase CAPEX.

But, like everything, it has to be politicized, and in the age of social media, every piece of bad info gets elevated.

Like aja8888 says, if people are serious about hating on oil, then they should endeavor to do their part and stop using the products. My bet is most will make it about 5 minutes.

It's capitalism. You don't need to apologize. It's not personal.

You do know exactly what I am talking about.

Its the whole American romance with the automobile thing and the fleecing of the middle class. lol

 

[acronymous]

We need FF as a bridge to renewable energy and then reserve supply for all of the uses that cannot be substituted for. We could have started this process long ago but we'll get there in the usual shambolic manner.

Humans don't handle change with a lot of grace [emoji846]

 

[purplesky]

Fleecing by oil? Strange POV 1) for an industry with 8% margins and 2) nearly our entire increase in standard of living in the last century is because of oil. And even if you have an electric car, most of the parts were acquired with oil energy, the majority of your electricity is oil energy and every product you buy has direct and indirect oil energy in it.

It’s really mind blowing to me that oil allowed me to get to Paris for 0.3% of the typical American annual household income in 2019 or for a couple hundred bucks of gasoline, travel more miles in a couple days than a typical human did in their entire lives 120 years ago. Sure I would love to eventually have all of us on nuclear energy but what an amazing world changing product. I for one am extremely thankful for oil. We’d have 1900 standard of living without it.

Disclosure: I work in consumer food industry now, was in hotel industry and super market industry, never oil or anything close to oil. Oil costs increases have always been bad for me and I do not own any oil stocks directly (I’m sure I do in index funds)

The fleecing by BigOil is happening right now in the United States with gas prices. Dude.

That amazing history created the big oil grip and hold we are trying to break free from now.

Oil will be around a long long time to make stuff obviously.

But transportation fuel not so much.

 

[Koolau]

We need FF as a bridge to renewable energy and then reserve supply for all of the uses that cannot be substituted for. We could have started this process long ago but we'll get there in the usual shambolic manner.

Humans don't handle change with a lot of grace [emoji846]

Free people need to be given a chance to buy in when asked to make huge changes. YMMV

 

[Magus]

The fleecing by BigOil is happening right now in the United States with gas prices. Dude.

That amazing history created the big oil grip and hold we are trying to break free from now.

Oil will be around a long long time to make stuff obviously.

But transportation fuel not so much.

I’m sure you were weren’t crying when gas prices in May 2020 were sub $2 and oil companies were losing money and many small ones went bankrupt. Same thing in 2010-2012. Do you understand how cyclical commodities work? Have you ever been responsible for a huge investment for a company before? Even now they are only making 10% margin on average. That is simply not that high.

There is no big oil grip, it’s simply the only cheap easy to access energy that is reliable besides nuclear. Wind, solar etc at most can supply 20-25% of global energy - at least at anything remotely close to what people can pay. The rest will have to be nuclear or oil

 

[madatrub]

The fleecing by BigOil is happening right now in the United States with gas prices. Dude.

That amazing history created the big oil grip and hold we are trying to break free from now.

Oil will be around a long long time to make stuff obviously.

But transportation fuel not so much.

This angle always confuses me. You think theres some giant conspiracy to withhold refinery production? Here's the truth, theres not.

You think oil companies are sitting around trading on the bid in the commodities market to drive up the price? heres the truth, they're not.

You pay more on taxes on a gallon of gas than a refinery is making as profit off of it.

For decades, refineries have had to install processes to meet more stringent fuel requirements that added $0 to their bottom line. And yet the price has been bumping around the same inflation adjusted prices since the early 1900s.

 

[target2019]

Right. I wouldn't advise to sell either unless I could see that someone was in clearly the wrong investment for them, or a high fee investment.

But yet when someone gets cash, why should they tiptoe into the market by DCA? How is this money different? If they don't know what to invest in, they certainly should park it somewhere safe while they figure it out, but that wasn't the message here. It was DCA, DCA, DCA.

Well, DCA is an approach that's covered on many sites, by different investing philosophies. I don't understand your judgment that this money is different. It's just cash, and you go from 100% cash to a desired asset allocation. If some do this in one day, one month, one year, one decade, I don't really have disagreement with any choice.

I think its common to have a portion of investable cash due to life events, just like OP. Some from inheritance, and even more from a future house sale. Every investor is different, and I simply accept that. For some it's not about showing that the maximum profit will result from an investment. There's a learning process, both about yourself and what all this investing voodoo is about. Everyone does not start with the same body of knowledge. It takes some time and adjustment for some of us. YMMV.

 

[NW-Bound]

Fleecing by oil? Strange POV 1) for an industry with 8% margins and 2) nearly our entire increase in standard of living in the last century is because of oil. And even if you have an electric car, most of the parts were acquired with oil energy, the majority of your electricity is oil energy and every product you buy has direct and indirect oil energy in it.

It’s really mind blowing to me that oil allowed me to get to Paris for 0.3% of the typical American annual household income in 2019 or for a couple hundred bucks of gasoline, travel more miles in a couple days than a typical human did in their entire lives 120 years ago. Sure I would love to eventually have all of us on nuclear energy but what an amazing world changing product. I for one am extremely thankful for oil. We’d have 1900 standard of living without it.

Disclosure: I work in consumer food industry now, was in hotel industry and super market industry, never oil or anything close to oil. Oil costs increases have always been bad for me and I do not own any oil stocks directly (I’m sure I do in index funds)

I like oil a lot. The main problem is it's running out.

I don't know how the world will live without it. Well, I will be dead and will not have to find out.

PS. From oil and gas come plastic, paint, PVC piping, insulating material, fertilizer, everything

 

[purplesky]

I’m sure you were weren’t crying when gas prices in May 2020 were sub $2 and oil companies were losing money and many small ones went bankrupt. Same thing in 2010-2012. Do you understand how cyclical commodities work? Have you ever been responsible for a huge investment for a company before? Even now they are only making 10% margin on average. That is simply not that high.

There is no big oil grip, it’s simply the only cheap easy to access energy that is reliable besides nuclear. Wind, solar etc at most can supply 20-25% of global energy - at least at anything remotely close to what people can pay. The rest will have to be nuclear or oil

You are missing the big picture. Your numbers are useless moving forward.

People all over the world want Electric cars or transportation that doesn't require oil. Our friend in Russia just sped up the process and transition away from big oils grip on Europe. It's a start.

Yes, oil will of course be used to produce many things.

Just a few years ago a guy was suing the state of California to try and reverse MPG standards on cars. The automakers went with California.
An example of the Big Oil grip. I just gave you a receipt.

In the United states we will have Electric big trucks at Walmart and PepsiCo and UPS and many other large companies.
These companies have orders with Tesla now.

My focus is mostly on transportation.

You sure are sensitive about big oil. Are you a Saudi Prince living in Paris?

 

[purplesky]

This angle always confuses me. You think theres some giant conspiracy to withhold refinery production? Here's the truth, theres not.

You think oil companies are sitting around trading on the bid in the commodities market to drive up the price? heres the truth, they're not.

You pay more on taxes on a gallon of gas than a refinery is making as profit off of it.

For decades, refineries have had to install processes to meet more stringent fuel requirements that added $0 to their bottom line. And yet the price has been bumping around the same inflation adjusted prices since the early 1900s.

Sure. Once I saw that chart it all came together for me and it erased the fleecing of American consumers buying gas and diesel throughout my entire adult life.

Next you are going to tell me that the meat producers in the United States are also not price fixing. lol

Dude!

 

[purplesky]

I like oil a lot. The main problem is it's running out.

I don't know how the world will live without it. Well, I will be dead and will not have to find out.

PS. From oil and gas come plastic, paint, PVC piping, insulating material, fertilizer, everything

World Oil Reserves
The world has proven reserves equivalent to 46.6 times its annual consumption levels. This means it has about 47 years of oil left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47

The world will figure it out.
Consumption will go down big time way before 47 years from now.

The younger generations are now intentional about it. Unlike Boomers.

Hope those Google numbers are legit. lol

 

[NW-Bound]

Just one of the myriad of things that come from oil: wire insulation.

I still remember the house wiring when I was a kid. There was no Romex or NM wire. The wire insulation was woven cloth, because plastic was not available.

What a fire hazard! I am sure some older homes still have these.

 

[Koolau]

Just one of the myriad of things that come from oil: wire insulation.

I still remember the house wiring when I was a kid. There was no Romex or NM wire. The wire insulation was woven cloth, because plastic was not available.

What a fire hazard! I am sure some older homes still have these.

Still have some old Christmas tree lights like that! Probably safer than it looks, but nothing like Romex for safety.

Oil will be around and used for the rest of most of our lives - unless it is outlawed at the point of a gun. There is simply nothing like it in terms of utility. YMMV

 

[Freedom56]

World Oil Reserves
The world has proven reserves equivalent to 46.6 times its annual consumption levels. This means it has about 47 years of oil left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).
Oil Reserves: 1,650,585,140,000
Oil Consumption: 35,442,913,090
Reserves/Consumption: 47

The world will figure it out.
Consumption will go down big time way before 47 years from now.

The younger generations are now intentional about it. Unlike Boomers.

Hope those Google numbers are legit. lol

You need to consider that 70% of oil consumption is due to automobiles. When solid state batteries and other technologies come to market, demand for oil will fall off as more people transition to electric cars. So the supply of oil will be around beyond 47 years. It should be obvious given the amount of capital investment in new battery technology and electric vehicles, the major manufacturers are finally embracing EV technology. The oil sector is in a secular bear market.

 

[Koolau]

You need to consider that 70% of oil consumption is due to automobiles. When solid state batteries and other technologies come to market, demand for oil will fall off as more people transition to electric cars. So the supply of oil will be around beyond 47 years. It should be obvious given the amount of capital investment in new battery technology and electric vehicles, the major manufacturers are finally embracing EV technology. The oil sector is in a secular bear market.

Heh, heh, is THAT what you call oil at $120/bbl?

 

[aja8888]

I like oil a lot. The main problem is it's running out.

NW, take my word for it, but you won't have to worry about oil running out in your lifetime.

 

[purplesky]

You need to consider that 70% of oil consumption is due to automobiles. When solid state batteries and other technologies come to market, demand for oil will fall off as more people transition to electric cars. So the supply of oil will be around beyond 47 years. It should be obvious given the amount of capital investment in new battery technology and electric vehicles, the major manufacturers are finally embracing EV technology. The oil sector is in a secular bear market.

70% of oil consumption is from automobiles? Damn.
We should eventually have electric vehicles driving coast to coast on one or two charges.

The RV industry is going to change big time.

Airstream is working on an electric trailer that will help power the electric car pulling it.