Investing in this market

[RunningBum]

I don't understand your judgment that this money is different.

No, I don't think this new cash money is any different from invested money, and one should invest it according to their asset allocation plan, not dribble it in. But I'll recognize that human nature will take over and people will take different actions, and I've said enough.

 

[NW-Bound]

NW, take my word for it, but you won't have to worry about oil running out in your lifetime.

My grandniece and grandnephew probably will not be able to take a jet to Europe like I have done. I hope they will not live in caves.

 

[NW-Bound]

70% of oil consumption is from automobiles? Damn.
We should eventually have electric vehicles driving coast to coast on one or two charges.

The RV industry is going to change big time.

Airstream is working on an electric trailer that will help power the electric car pulling it.

If the above happens in my lifetime it will be a pleasant surprise, but I don't count on it.

I will certainly be too old to do any RV'ing, but will be happy that young generations can enjoy what we did.

 

[aja8888]

My grandniece and grandnephew probably will not be able to take a jet to Europe like I have done. I hope they will not live in caves.

The "running out of oil" scenario has been going on for decades. No one know the extent of oil and gas in undeveloped formations. And the Saudi's never have (or will) provided their "proven" reserves. I believe Russia, who has the largest "known" oil reserves, really just guesses.

New fields are found every year as that's what oil companies do to replace what they sold the previous year. Look at ExxonMobil... their newer fields in Guyana are massive and they keep on finding more down that way. Many areas of the globe have not been explored for new oil bearing formations, especially in Africa.

If you want to read a really good book on world oil, read "Twlight in the Desert" by Matt Simmons. Matt was ( he passed a few years ago) the CEO of Simmons International, a company I was very familiar with. I knew Matt personally and he was regarded as one of the real experts on the world oil industry.

 

[Koolau]

70% of oil consumption is from automobiles? Damn.
We should eventually have electric vehicles driving coast to coast on one or two charges.

The RV industry is going to change big time.

Airstream is working on an electric trailer that will help power the electric car pulling it.

Dang, that would be one big battery.

 

[aja8888]

Dang, that would be one big battery.

Flying cars are right around the corner!

 

[Koolau]

Flying cars are right around the corner!

And running on batteries at that!

 

[purplesky]

Flying cars are right around the corner!

Have you seen the drones designed to carry people.

We might actually get a flying car-drone pretty soon. Finally.

 

[aja8888]

Have you seen the drones designed to carry people.

We might actually get a flying car-drone pretty soon. Finally.

Actually, there are a few companies still working on flying cars. But they are still a long was from getting acceptance. I have not seen the drone project.

 

[purplesky]

If the above happens in my lifetime it will be a pleasant surprise, but I don't count on it.

I will certainly be too old to do any RV'ing, but will be happy that young generations can enjoy what we did.

The RV industry is working hard on it now. You might be able to do it.
Google Electric RVs. lol

If Elon Musk needs more money for the Twitter purchase he should announce an Official Tesla RV.

I am surprised he hasn't already.

 

[purplesky]

Actually, there are a few companies still working on flying cars. But they are still a long was from getting acceptance. I have not seen the drone project.

https://youtu.be/xKI7r9ATaCQ

This is Toyotas. Brave pilot. lol

 

[aja8888]

https://youtu.be/xKI7r9ATaCQ

This is Toyotas. Brave pilot. lol

Pretty wild!

 

[purplesky]

https://youtu.be/xKI7r9ATaCQ

This is Toyotas. Brave pilot. lol

This one is better. Jetson one.
https://youtu.be/NSCvsW-z2LE

 

[purplesky]

This one is better. Jetson one.
https://youtu.be/NSCvsW-z2LE

Sorry last one. Commute to work. lol

https://youtu.be/GAVwYIvmNEM

 

[NW-Bound]

They work, but don't have the range.

 

[Magus]

You need to consider that 70% of oil consumption is due to automobiles. When solid state batteries and other technologies come to market, demand for oil will fall off as more people transition to electric cars. So the supply of oil will be around beyond 47 years. It should be obvious given the amount of capital investment in new battery technology and electric vehicles, the major manufacturers are finally embracing EV technology. The oil sector is in a secular bear market.

43% is automobiles. 66% is transportation but a third of that is trucking and a lot of the automobile is long distance driving not ideal with charging situation today. The main problem with mass electric vehicles besides charging times is the electric grid. Unless we start mass thorium nuclear right now, the grid today can’t handle it, and solar and wind simply cannot reach more than 25% of energy supply. So even if you shift it to electric, the electric will still otherwise come from FF. And for reasons that aren’t apparent to me, nuclear is shunned by the folks pushing green. We’ll eventually get there but it will take a lot longer than some want.

 

[dixonge]

OK, I'll say it, I'd put it in the market now. You're getting a 20% discount from where it was.

I’m hoping to get my next chunk invested before the discount disappears!

 

[purplesky]

They work, but don't have the range.

Tesla is working on a passenger drone that uses their battery technology so that should be better.

The military has a project for passenger drones that is Probably in use now.

 

[NW-Bound]

I’m hoping to get my next chunk invested before the discount disappears!

I dunno. No need to hurry. More pundits are talking about the recession developing.

And earlier, they talked about a recession in late 2023, but have moved it up to mid 2023.

 

[Koolau]

Sorry last one. Commute to work. lol

https://youtu.be/GAVwYIvmNEM

All of them are pretty cool.

Battery range is key - the issue is magnified in aircraft vs in cars since much of the energy needed in an aircraft is to hold the aircraft off the ground. And adding more battery weight is sort of diminishing return whereas in cars, the additional weight is much less critical. YMMV

 

[NW-Bound]

Tesla is working on a passenger drone that uses their battery technology so that should be better.

The military has a project for passenger drones that is Probably in use now.

Tesla uses cells made by Panasonic, and for China production, by CATL. I don't see that Tesla has any secret sauce.

 

[Magus]

You are missing the big picture. Your numbers are useless moving forward.

People all over the world want Electric cars or transportation that doesn't require oil. Our friend in Russia just sped up the process and transition away from big oils grip on Europe. It's a start.

Yes, oil will of course be used to produce many things.

Just a few years ago a guy was suing the state of California to try and reverse MPG standards on cars. The automakers went with California.
An example of the Big Oil grip. I just gave you a receipt.

In the United states we will have Electric big trucks at Walmart and PepsiCo and UPS and many other large companies.
These companies have orders with Tesla now.

My focus is mostly on transportation.

You sure are sensitive about big oil. Are you a Saudi Prince living in Paris?

I’m not missing the big picture at all as that wasn’t what we were discussing. And yes while a lot of people want to switch to electric, they aren’t willing to pay more or wait hours to charge their vehicles for long drives. There was a poll not too long ago that asked people if they wanted to reduce co2 usage and about 70% said yes. The next question of those 70% is how much they were willing to spend to reduce their co2 usage. It averaged $5. My point: people want lots of things - doesn’t mean they’ll get them or pay for them.

The electric grid can’t handle 20% electric vehicles (which still doesn’t account for most of the materials and energy for electric today require FFs) much less 90%+, not without thorium nuclear energy, of which there is no development and people won’t pay $1/kwh+ to get reliable sun and wind.

Yes we’ll eventually get there but the laws of thermodynamics simply don’t care about someone’s wants.

It’s not about being sensitive to big oil. You throw out names and slander an industry without understanding even a basic P&L, boom and bust, time value of money and frankly where all your energy comes from. But keep on doing you. If you want to get into a lot of detail, we can chat about supermarket economics, hotel economics or CPG and restaurant economics. I know a lot more about those since I’ve worked high up in all of them!

 

[Koolau]

43% is automobiles. 66% is transportation but a third of that is trucking and a lot of the automobile is long distance driving not ideal with charging situation today. The main problem with mass electric vehicles besides charging times is the electric grid. Unless we start mass thorium nuclear right now, the grid today can’t handle it, and solar and wind simply cannot reach more than 25% of energy supply. So even if you shift it to electric, the electric will still otherwise come from FF. And for reasons that aren’t apparent to me, nuclear is shunned by the folks pushing green. We’ll eventually get there but it will take a lot longer than some want.

Yeah, if we can't keep the AC running in the summer time, we aren't gonna charge several million new electric vehicles through the current grid and windmills/solar panels. YMMV

 

[purplesky]

Tesla uses cells made by Panasonic, and for China production, by CATL. I don't see that Tesla has any secret sauce.

Tesla has the talent and the money. That’s the secret sauce.

I’m sure Boeing and airbus And Lockheed Martin and Toyota and many other billion dollar corporations are working on passenger carrying drones.

I bet UPS and FedEx are also. I know they are.

Using drones to carry shipping containers would be very useful for the shipping industry. Rural areas near cities.
26 foot containers or even smaller.

 

[purplesky]

Yeah, if we can't keep the AC running in the summer time, we aren't gonna charge several million new electric vehicles through the current grid and windmills/solar panels. YMMV

We aren’t going to have several million new electric vehicles anytime soon. It’s going to be a very gradual slow process.
I mean not overnight.

But as quickly as Tesla can deliver new cars they will sell every one of them even with the new price increases.

The average electric car user is not going to be charging their car every day. lol. It’s not a refrigerator in the garage.

Many electric car owners will only need to charge their car once a month.