Wasn't there a thread some years ago where the guy was all worked up about getting out at DOW 14,000, then getting back in if went over? We warned that he might get whip=sawed, but it looks like it could have worked out for him (which doesn't change if it was a good idea or not).
But then, he would have had to have been in something that gave at least the divs of S&P500. That wasn't so easy to do and still be liquid enough to get back in. And that would just put you even with doing nothing (though maybe avoid drawing down while it was down).
I wonder how that worked for him? I'm not sure I could find the thread, anyone recall it?
-ERD50
I am often struck by those for whom bad ideas work out and the mentality they have.
My favorite such story is the gentleman with whom I worked for two years about eight years ago. Nice guy, very smart.
We talked one day about how he ended up in the Navy. He had been living on a sailboat sailing the Caribbean with his wife for several years on the money he'd made in the late 90's day trading. He made roughly $100 million in one year, bought his boat, never looked back...
Well... he did look back I guess. He got back into day trading - for some reason it wasn't enough - and subsequently lost everything in 2001/2002, and joined the Navy to start over.
I asked him (once I knew him well enough) - do you ever regret your ventures day trading? Does it seem like wasted time now? He said no, citing that he got to live a really good life for a couple of years and I can't argue that.
But what struck me came next...
He said in a very proud tone: "How many people have you ever met that made $100 million in one year?"
Without even having to think about it, I answered: "The same number of people that I've met who LOST $100 million in one year."
I truly believe that some day, if I run into him again, he will be back into actively trading the market, believing that he's capable of consistently beating and/or timing the market. I hope he is, for his sake.