Monday Market Poll
- Thread starter Marshac
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cute fuzzy bunny
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That was a bit of an owie, now, wasnt it?
I think its a bit overdone/oversold. Might keep going another trading day or two though.
I think its a bit overdone/oversold. Might keep going another trading day or two though.
retire@40
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() said:
I'm guessing your portfolio was down 30K to 40K today, hmmmmm.
T
TromboneAl
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I'm not going to look at mine. But at least I'm glad I rebalanced $50K out of stocks earlier this year.
cute fuzzy bunny
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About 18k including all of our retirement accts.
*shrug*
I think i'll have a second bowl of soup...
When it bounces back, I'll have some 20k up days.
I just put 20k in cash into equities. If we have another down day on monday I'll buy another 20k. If we have another one like that on tuesday or wednesday, i'll cash out a cd early and put that in.
Rinse and repeat until the bleeding stops.
*shrug*
I think i'll have a second bowl of soup...
When it bounces back, I'll have some 20k up days.
I just put 20k in cash into equities. If we have another down day on monday I'll buy another 20k. If we have another one like that on tuesday or wednesday, i'll cash out a cd early and put that in.
Rinse and repeat until the bleeding stops.
retire@40
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Hopefully, nobody decided to pick this week to retire.
retire@40 said:
Well, actually, about two and a half weeks ago, but I'm easy. 8) If I have to go back to semi-retired/self-employed, it's no big deal. Ten years from now it would be a biggie, but not now. I think those of us who didn't get used to a regular pay check and are used to vagaries in getting paid might have an easier time with this, or are used to pretending it's okay.
I have some money in cash I'll put into equities if this downward movement continues. I had shifted my asset allocation the week I retired, more cash and bonds.
Spanky
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I think I will just skip checking my portfolio.
I bought more equities today, too. Equal amounts in small cap value and TM small cap. I am still sitting on a bunch of cash and short term reserves. Good buying opportunity. If Monday looks the same, I will also repeat the process.
I had less volatility today then when the dow crossed 11K
LL
I had less volatility today then when the dow crossed 11K
LL
LOL!
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This was one of the worst days in the market in awhile. That's means BUY:
Studies show if you miss the 10, 20, or 30 worst days in the market over a period of time then you have stellar returns.
I was compelled to buy ... I could not stop myself. Nevertheless, I think Monday will be a day of little to no change.
Still up for the year! Good luck everyone.
Studies show if you miss the 10, 20, or 30 worst days in the market over a period of time then you have stellar returns.
I was compelled to buy ... I could not stop myself. Nevertheless, I think Monday will be a day of little to no change.
Still up for the year! Good luck everyone.
After the ramp up into Jan I moved everything to bonds. With those market expectations I believed that, after last year, earnings this year wouldn't be able to keep pace with the poor consumer response during Christmas. Also Iran (and the upcoming bourse) would put pressure on oil, which would do same to stocks. Unexpectedly Bin Ladin threats and the Niger kidnappings just added to the stew. This all occured earlier than I thought, but so far so good.
Monday? who knows and who cares? Going into March when the bourse opens I exepect Iran to stay in the news and to supress stocks. Closer in we should see better, but around that time I expect the reality of the housing market will become better known. A combination of the Fed and sentiment will invert the Yield curve out to 30 years, likely, and regardless we'll move into recession probably by summer.
For 2006 I don't see any positives for stock indicies. Anybody?
Monday? who knows and who cares? Going into March when the bourse opens I exepect Iran to stay in the news and to supress stocks. Closer in we should see better, but around that time I expect the reality of the housing market will become better known. A combination of the Fed and sentiment will invert the Yield curve out to 30 years, likely, and regardless we'll move into recession probably by summer.
For 2006 I don't see any positives for stock indicies. Anybody?
cute fuzzy bunny
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Yeah, I do. The nearly perma bear around here the last couple of years.
I think 2006 may be one of the better years for equities since 1999.
I think 2006 may be one of the better years for equities since 1999.
cute fuzzy bunny
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Because not one of us knows where its going to go, and because it goes up when bad things happen and down when good things happen. Or vice versa. Or goes nowhere.
But if you want a real reason why I think so, not that it'll matter a whit, its because the market does well when theres a lot of cash on the sidelines and people feel good about putting it into an asset class.
Theres a lot of cash on the sidelines. Plus bonds are paying crap and will continue to pay crap for the next year or more. People have been easing from bonds to cash because theres no reason to take on bond and interest rate risk when you can get almost the same coupon from a money market and 150 basis points advantage from a 5 year CD. Then they're itchy with the cash because its barely squeaking out something beyond inflation.
The markets gone mostly sideways since the start of the big decline in 2000. Valuations by many measures have caught up and blown past stock prices. A lot of stocks selling at similar levels for several years have doubled their earnings without the stock price moving. About 90% of the talking heads I've heard and read claim the market is the cheapest its been in a long time and that their customers are becoming more comfortable with equities, which should make 2006 a good year. I dont believe anything after the word "I..." that comes out of a talking heads mouth, but almost everyone else does.
Look at WMT as a case in point. PE of ~17. Has gone nowhere in 5 years. Stocks at a low point in the cycle its been locked into. Biggest retailer on the planet with huge revenues, great profit points and a lot of upside. On sale or at worst, fairly valued. Go take a 5 year chart of the stock and have a peek. Those things dont tend to break to the downside.
There are a whole lotta stocks just like that.
But like I said, at the end of the day, we dont know. You can add up all the negative nelliness or pump as much sunshine up your butt as you like. All it takes is for the herd to think they hear a starters pistol in conjunction with the trillion dollars of sideline money for a rally. Or for someone to throw a dead skunk into the bullpen. Given the lackluster performance and the fact that most people have already forgotten about the carnage in 2000 (see:google), I think we're more likely to hear a starters pistol than see a skunk thrown.
But if you want a real reason why I think so, not that it'll matter a whit, its because the market does well when theres a lot of cash on the sidelines and people feel good about putting it into an asset class.
Theres a lot of cash on the sidelines. Plus bonds are paying crap and will continue to pay crap for the next year or more. People have been easing from bonds to cash because theres no reason to take on bond and interest rate risk when you can get almost the same coupon from a money market and 150 basis points advantage from a 5 year CD. Then they're itchy with the cash because its barely squeaking out something beyond inflation.
The markets gone mostly sideways since the start of the big decline in 2000. Valuations by many measures have caught up and blown past stock prices. A lot of stocks selling at similar levels for several years have doubled their earnings without the stock price moving. About 90% of the talking heads I've heard and read claim the market is the cheapest its been in a long time and that their customers are becoming more comfortable with equities, which should make 2006 a good year. I dont believe anything after the word "I..." that comes out of a talking heads mouth, but almost everyone else does.
Look at WMT as a case in point. PE of ~17. Has gone nowhere in 5 years. Stocks at a low point in the cycle its been locked into. Biggest retailer on the planet with huge revenues, great profit points and a lot of upside. On sale or at worst, fairly valued. Go take a 5 year chart of the stock and have a peek. Those things dont tend to break to the downside.
There are a whole lotta stocks just like that.
But like I said, at the end of the day, we dont know. You can add up all the negative nelliness or pump as much sunshine up your butt as you like. All it takes is for the herd to think they hear a starters pistol in conjunction with the trillion dollars of sideline money for a rally. Or for someone to throw a dead skunk into the bullpen. Given the lackluster performance and the fact that most people have already forgotten about the carnage in 2000 (see:google), I think we're more likely to hear a starters pistol than see a skunk thrown.
greg
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I think I was up about $1k for Friday.
"Because not one of us knows where its going to go, and because it goes up when bad things happen and down when good things happen. Or vice versa. Or goes nowhere."
(), because JG is gone right now, I think I'll step in: I'm not a big believer in Bogleism (sp?) fatalism. It's important to TRY to figure things out or find a Warren Buffet who can do it for you. But you're right too, the short-term is very, very difficult to figure out.
"Because not one of us knows where its going to go, and because it goes up when bad things happen and down when good things happen. Or vice versa. Or goes nowhere."
(), because JG
is gone right now, I think I'll step in: I'm not a big believer in Bogleism (sp?) fatalism. It's important to TRY to figure things out or find a Warren Buffet who can do it for you. But you're right too, the short-term is very, very difficult to figure out.unclemick
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I have no idea about Friday or Monday or my balanced index portfolio.
BUT - I assume the computers at Vanguard did and will stay running - and rebalanced their little hearts out.
heh heh heh heh heh heh
If football gets boring - I may look and take a SWAG at %.
Looking at rolling up all the small pots I haven't got around to and at age 62/63 this year including that whole file cabinet of DRIPs accumulated since 1989 and going: Vanguard Target Retirement 2015, some Roth conversion Lifestrategy mod in case I don't croak on time at 84.6. My Vanguard Broker gets the Norwegian widow.
Damp the SD - up the spend profile in my 60's and 70's - Roth and rest home/drool cup in my 80's.
Like football - the markets are fun to watch.
Alas - being a really cheap bastard in the first 12 years of ER sure was fun though. Gonna miss it a little.
heh heh heh heh heh heh
?Seattle/Denver and +1% on Monday?
BUT - I assume the computers at Vanguard did and will stay running - and rebalanced their little hearts out.
heh heh heh heh heh heh
If football gets boring - I may look and take a SWAG at %.
Looking at rolling up all the small pots I haven't got around to and at age 62/63 this year including that whole file cabinet of DRIPs accumulated since 1989 and going: Vanguard Target Retirement 2015, some Roth conversion Lifestrategy mod in case I don't croak on time at 84.6. My Vanguard Broker gets the Norwegian widow.
Damp the SD - up the spend profile in my 60's and 70's - Roth and rest home/drool cup in my 80's.
Like football - the markets are fun to watch.
Alas - being a really cheap bastard in the first 12 years of ER sure was fun though. Gonna miss it a little.
heh heh heh heh heh heh
?Seattle/Denver and +1% on Monday?
greg
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danm: My current market bias is 60% up (inflation) and 40% down (deflation). It's bothersome to me that the Fed is pumping money into the system while simultaniously raising interest rates, kinda like adding ExLax and a cork to the system--"let's make this little piggy as big as we can." They must think they're gods to be able to control both ends at once. Maybe they are. My only tweak to the portfolio has been to add a couple of natural gas stocks after Rita--so far. Good Luck.
Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON said:
Very good. I'm rather 60% deflation/40% inflation. The Fed pump (high liquidity) is common in mild deflation. They're trying (my read) to keep the party going by having lots of capital available for any spending, anybody might wish to do. When the housing situation is perfectly obvious to everybody those efforts will be much less effective. They are already actually.
The consumer can't borrow to spend anymore (though never underestimate how long irrationality can go on), and businesses certainly aren't going to pick it up. Why bother when China fulfills your capital spending needs?
cute fuzzy bunny
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Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON said:(), because JG
I'm not sure what JG ever 'stepped into' to any good effect, but I can say that Warren doesnt make any attempts to figure anything out either. He just buys good stocks at good price, or the whole company, and then keeps them.
You cant dictate or avoid most of the stuff I see people wheedling about. You can either let inflation eat you, eke out a 1-2% gain over that, or do what someone like buffett or bogle does. The first one is punting on first down. The second is three yards and a cloud of dust on every play; most of the time you'll be punting on fourth down, but its not exciting in a bad way. Or a good way. The latter is obviously quite exciting, in both good and bad ways. If its not exciting in a good way over the long haul, most investors are hosed anyhow.
I'd rather take a chance on being hosed than going short most or all of the time and virtually assuring it.
But to each their own poison and the spoon to take it with...
Sheryl
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Thought it was going to be a blood bath - I was pleasantly suprised that I'm only down by 0.6%. I'm still planning to be part of the herd that moves sideline cash into the market Monday morning.
Friday's market just proves to me that I'm correct in keeping a mere 25% in stocks.
The market giveth and the market taketh away.
The bear market that started in 2000 continues today.
The up of 2003 and 2004 were just upward spikes in what continues to be a very long bear market that I expect will continue for a very long time.
So sorry for the pessimism.
.
Remember what Bernstein said, something like this: Expected return = the dividend rate + the annual % increase in dividends.
So expect about a 6 percent increase in stocks, which is only a fraction above what you can get with bonds or CDs. So is the risk worth it ?
The market giveth and the market taketh away.
The bear market that started in 2000 continues today.
The up of 2003 and 2004 were just upward spikes in what continues to be a very long bear market that I expect will continue for a very long time.
So sorry for the pessimism.
.
Remember what Bernstein said, something like this: Expected return = the dividend rate + the annual % increase in dividends.
So expect about a 6 percent increase in stocks, which is only a fraction above what you can get with bonds or CDs. So is the risk worth it ?
bennevis said:
Excellent! you've reached the puke point. That's the point where you regurgitate all your stocks (or almost all) and say never again. With the so far mild aftermath of 2001 most investors remain speculative and have no problems paying high for their risk premiums. Speculation remains rampant, just look at housing. "But this time it's different."
