My FIRECalc 100% = What am I missing?

[HI Bill]

Yes I think so. The worse result is from the magic of compounding.

Contrary to a lot of commenters here and on BH who seem to think 4-5% is "normal" based on overweighting the 1970s experience, the long-term inflation rate for the U.S. is less than 3%. https://www.multpl.com/inflation

EDIT - "long-term" approximating the period considered in FIRECalc.

I would just like to point out that the 'published' consumer price index, and other published inflation rates from US official sources are, IMHO, biased to make inflation look lower than it is. Whether you believe this or not, what matters is YOUR personal inflation rate. What do you spend your money on, and in what fractions? For example, if you spend 33% annually on medical, and it goes up 8% a year, then your personal inflation rate may well be higher than 3% average.

 

[Rianne]

The only thing you're missing is if the military/government goes south. Sadly, that's what happened to many private pensions. Even those with a $1M saved would have to cut their spending quite a bit.