Not as chilled as the rest of you - need advice

I was nervous. I went shopping. In Home Depot I saw A Chinese man spend money.

I feel better now.

We need to send somebody over to China to see if the Chinese there are spending money. They are the ones whose frugality causes all this problem, not the Chinese living over here. :cool:
 
Just to clarify my last comment, I don't mean one should immediately reduce their budget by $4000 if you lost $100K in the past week. But if you do VPW, at whatever your year end is, you certainly would account for it. If you use a X% withdrawal rate + inflation you would ignore it and hope it is noise that gets swallowed up over time, assuming you were already in retirement. However, if I had retired this year, I might adjust spending or at least watch how this plays out to avoid starting off with a bad sequence of returns.
 
My two cents - you've already (based on your initial post), pushed off the idea of retirement from JAN 2017 to a later date - when your DH is already miserable. Why? You can do that forever (and have been for years by your own admission) - keep pushing retirement off. I'd rather deal with the job issue than face the idea of continuing to push off retirement and be miserable for 3 more years. Life's too short.

We haven't pushed it to 2018 yet but are considering it and were considering it before this recent drop. The Jan.2017 date was the first date we ever really set and we did that this year.

DH isn't currently miserable, just in status quo mode- but he has definitely wanted to quit for a few years now - many other things he'd rather do. However, many many factors are always involved right? One of those is that one has to be willing to at some point to let go of certain self-imposed constraints and just do it. That's hard for him to do. Risk is just more difficult for some than others. It's all good. I admire his sense of responsibility and concern - he's a super great guy. He knows that as far as I'm concerned he can pull the plug anytime. I've always felt that way and have always let him know that :) And you are absolutely right, life can be shorter than we think. We've experienced the death of a close friend (our age) and a 19 year old niece in the past year. I know others have probably experienced similar losses. It does put things in perspective. I'm ready for him to pull the plug when he's ready. I like what I'm doing so I don't feel the same stress.
 
Not chilled

I semi-retired a month ago and had been curious about my reaction to something like this, which has been pretty restrained. I saw it before in '02 and '08-'09, which does help.

I had cash in a rollover account used for trading and picked up small positions in GM and WNR in what I considered to be pretty low prices. I had been looking at a car manufacturer and a refiner for 6-12 months and finally got a chance to get them at more reasonable prices.
I'm supposed to rebalance at -3% or +4% stock allocation, with the center line at 62%, so another 2-3% move down by the market and I'll need to pick up a stock mutual fund--probably add to the Europe fund.
It helps to think about what I've wanted to purchase but haven't been able to either because of rich valuations or the allocations are fine.
I increased cash back early in the year when biotech ran up, and had left it in cash not really being thrilled about bond values and wanting 2 years of cash available (it's at 3 years if you count the short duration fund), so there is plenty of dry powder.
 
I can say I really did not like the follow-through today. I thought that there was a major capitulation yesterday.

In the end, it's only money. Anyone entering retirement should be aware that these things have happened in the past, and will happen again. Be prepared. Have enough cushion. Work OMY if you have to to get a solid FIRE plan.

I think that's the key there - feeling comfortable with your cushion. It may just be that we need more of a cushion to be able to sleep at night. Either that or sell the farm -literally :LOL:
 
Just to clarify my last comment, I don't mean one should immediately reduce their budget by $4000 if you lost $100K in the past week. But if you do VPW, at whatever your year end is, you certainly would account for it. If you use a X% withdrawal rate + inflation you would ignore it and hope it is noise that gets swallowed up over time, assuming you were already in retirement. However, if I had retired this year, I might adjust spending or at least watch how this plays out to avoid starting off with a bad sequence of returns.

It made total sense to me RunningBum. And it did put things into something tangible I could think about. Not spending money is easy for me when it comes to "extras". I'm just trying to work down my "fixed" expenses. Once I get two kids out of college I will feel like I got a raise. Assuming of course, that they don't move back home :facepalm:
 
I do a couple things to help me stay calm during these hectic times:

A) Review my investment plan rules. I've included mine below and yes some of them overlap)
Personal Top 10 for a successful Plan
1) Spend less than you make (LBYM)
2) Stick to your Investment Plan (review annually)
3) Diversification / Asset Allocation (non-correlated asets. A piece of all markets)
4) Keep Turnover low (reduces costs, taxes and bad mistakes)
5) Low cost Index Funds (Vanguard Admiral Shares are preferred)
6) Keep taxes low (Index funds are tax efficient, low turnover keeps taxes low, rebalance 1 year +1 DAY for LT cap gains)
7) Discipline (See #2) Think long term when the market goes south and stick with the plan!
8) Don't look at your portfolio daily. Once fully invested, only look at the market monthly.
9) Keep it simple, don't get exotic, don't chase trends and don't be greedy
10)Harvest RSU/ESPP 2x per year- Keep this below 10% of NW.

B) Compare my portfolio versus the market. I use Personal Capital which is easier than trying to track everything in my spreadsheet. Over the last 30days my portfolio is down 5.9% versus 10.2% for the S&P 500. Year to date my portfolio is down 5.2% versus 9.3%. I am pretty well diversified with a target 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds, so it makes sense that my portfolio doesn't track the S&P500 (up or down). Due to my plan above, my investment portfolio is flat on the year.

It sucks seeing your portfolio drop, regardless of its size. But I found having a written plan helps me a ton. I hope this helps others.
 
Just to clarify my last comment, I don't mean one should immediately reduce their budget by $4000 if you lost $100K in the past week. But if you do VPW, at whatever your year end is, you certainly would account for it. If you use a X% withdrawal rate + inflation you would ignore it and hope it is noise that gets swallowed up over time, assuming you were already in retirement. However, if I had retired this year, I might adjust spending or at least watch how this plays out to avoid starting off with a bad sequence of returns.
You really don't know VPW in my family. We can cut back to stupid levels very quickly.... increase our spending... What is that? DW does not know what that means. Our spending is dropping and we had planned a 1.5% WR... go figure.
 
Well, a lot of us use 4% or 3.5% or whatever % of assets for withdrawals since it's a lot easier than trying to figure out what the net profit is on 2 iphones and whatever other part of each company we own through a mutual fund.

I don't think you can ignore the $100K paper loss but count a $100K paper gain on a stock surge that may have overshot it's value. Things tend to balance out over time. The market will recover, sooner or later, because the overall trend of the market is upward, along with the US and world economy. But it's not clear whether this was an unwarranted drop that will recover quickly, or a correction to a market that was too high, and will only recover through normal market growth over a longer time.

I agree that you should treat paper gains and losses the same. I also think for planning purposes a 3.5-4% withdrawal rates is just fine. 4% for somebody retiring in their 60s, 3.5% for somebody in their 50s.
Rather than calculating the profit of each iPhone, I find looking at dividends and interest generated by a portfolio is the right way to look at a floor for your income. Then add an additional 1-1.5% withdrawal to account for growth and spending down your capital.

My main point is that correction over the last week in all likelihood had minimal impact on the income a portfolio generates. So if the OP was planning on retiring with a 3.5% last week than raising that withdrawal rate to 3.8% (~10% more) this week is just fine. Now there are limits to this if the market gets cut in 1/2 than I wouldn't advocate a 7-8% WR because probably an S&P < 1000 is going mean sharply lower corporate profits.
 
Steadysaver

Back in 2008 we were about 90% in stock funds (all in 401ks). DH was 61 and I was in my mid-50s and we thought we were close. I had to sit there and watch our portfolio go down 45%. That was not a fun time.

I did learn some things from it:

1. Our asset allocation was bad for someone who wanted to soon retire. It was too heavy in equities. I moved it to about 60/40% (no not at that bottom of the market, I did that later).

2. It made me feel better to just not think about all this too much. I just sort of pretended like I didn't have the money.

3. By early 2010, things were looking good again. DH went ahead and retired in the middle of the year and I semi-retired.

4. This unpleasantness the past few days is, well, nothing compared to that. I'm not happy about it, but I am -- in a way -- relieved. That is, I am hopeful that this is a needed correction and that is better to go through it now and get it behind us. Maybe this time will be different and all that, but I feel OK. (We now have a 50%/50% allocation so that smooths out these kinds of swings)
 
As W2R and others have recommended now is not the time to make a stock/bond/cash allocation decision or a retirement date decision. The markets are rattled, you're worried, and in the short run, the investment climate looks bad. The markets will settle down. No one knows when, but 500 -600 point per day drops will pass.

When things calm down think about a stock/bond/cash allocation that you'll be comfortable with. Review your January 2017 retirement goal one year from now. A lot will likely change.
 
I retired 4 years ago in Oct 2011 just as the S&P 500 dipped into -20% bear market territory. The US had just lost its AAA rating. I would be lying if I told you I wasn't nervous. But I had committed to retirement and there was no turning back. As it turned out, the market then was undergoing a much needed correction and was preparing for a long period of increases. Let's hope this time is similar.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
 
As W2R and others have recommended now is not the time to make a stock/bond/cash allocation decision or a retirement date decision. The markets are rattled, you're worried, and in the short run, the investment climate looks bad. The markets will settle down. No one knows when, but 500 -600 point per day drops will pass.

When things calm down think about a stock/bond/cash allocation that you'll be comfortable with. Review your January 2017 retirement goal one year from now. A lot will likely change.


And cooler heads will prevail as they always do.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum.
 
As W2R and others have recommended now is not the time to make a stock/bond/cash allocation decision or a retirement date decision. The markets are rattled, you're worried, and in the short run, the investment climate looks bad. The markets will settle down. No one knows when, but 500 -600 point per day drops will pass.

When things calm down think about a stock/bond/cash allocation that you'll be comfortable with. Review your January 2017 retirement goal one year from now. A lot will likely change.

I have a interesting decision to make. I have till Friday to decide if I retire now or continue OMYing. As my personal situation has changed greatly over the last few months I was thinking I'd stay employed for now but here's the problem. My AA is way to stock heavy. Much of my NW is tied into my companys stock. That stock is at a all time high and is evaluated quarterly. Sale of the stock is closed one month before the next evaluation. I would have to give notice by Friday to get it in before the deadline. My plan is/was to sell a good portion of my company stock pay the tax man and set my AA to suit my risk tolerance. I'm concerned if I work another 2 years I may not be in any better or possibly worse shape financially than i am today. So yes this downturn is messing with my mind.
 
I'm concerned if I work another 2 years I may not be in any better or possibly worse shape financially than i am today. So yes this downturn is messing with my mind.

I totally understand. I ER'd 2 months ago and I have moments where I question the decision. How could you end up in worse shape financially if you keep working vs retiring ?
 
How could you end up in worse shape financially if you keep working vs retiring ?
+1

But it is most likely to put you in worse shape physically, mentally, spiritually, psychologically, physiologically ... I will stop now.
 
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My individual portfolio is 100% in stocks while our 401K is 88% stocks and 12% in a US Debt Index Fund. Another smaller, older 401K account is 100% invested in stocks.

What is the AA of your entire portfolio? Sounds like you may have too much in equities for comfort.
 
What is the AA of your entire portfolio? Sounds like you may have too much in equities for comfort.

This is my question too - what is your overall stock/bond ratio? If it is just all of this, then it is probably too high with retirement only 3 years or less away.

In 2008, we were 93/7; which I was OK with - we were early 40s and not planning to retire until I reach 57. Once the markets started rebounding, I slowly started DCA-ing to get to a lower stock percentage, but even now we are still quite aggressive at 83/17, (but still have 11 years until retirement).

Market forces notwithstanding, I will continue over time to slowly lower our stock percentage - will work our way down to 70/30. Of course, having said that - I have some cash and I kind of feel like jumping in more stock funds with this pull back.... :D
 
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