ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
Easy for a billionaire to say. No matter how hard it collapsed, he'd be fine.
Oil price decline
- Thread starter REWahoo
- Start date
I've been crying for them all day. Unfortunately, my w*rking fate is tied to the economy and the price of oil. I can see my retirement coming over the hill as I type.
signed up for a trading newsletter today to get some tips from people who have more time to devote to this. I've been following this guy for over a year and reading his free stuff that is a summary of the paid but with a lag. he's very good at predicting 90% or so of pretty much every market move including today's rally before it happens.
he's saying we'll get a rally to around $110 soon then another crash to $50 at the lowest and then another rally past $150 sometime next year
he's saying we'll get a rally to around $110 soon then another crash to $50 at the lowest and then another rally past $150 sometime next year
Leonidas
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I got out of my shorts at the low 90's and haven't been paying much attention to it for the last week or so. I really believed that oil was going to unwind but I have to admit that the speed and depth were much more than I thought possible. $90-ish seemed like good bottom, and it tried to hold there for a while but it dropped past that and has been taking the elevator down since then. Perhaps it overshot a little with a stronger dollar and general panic in the markets - I don't know at the moment.
Rally to $110? That's doable, I think, but I'm not sure about soon. Down to $50? I think we're more likely to see that before we see $110 again. OPECC will try and hold the line with some production cuts, but I'm not sure if there will be a consensus or how successful they will be. And then up to $150 by next year? That's interesting. Again, it's possible, but the timeline sure seems short. But things seem to be moving at light speed recently so I won't say it's not going to happen.
I would love to look at the free stuff if it's on line. Do you have a link?
when i looked at the USO and oil charts i thought $150 in July was the peak with a rally to $90 - $110 and then a bottom at $60. that would set up a nice head and shoulders and then a drop.
they way he is saying it we'll get a fast rally from $50 to $150 that will set up a double top and the bottom could be as low as $50 over the next few years
with all the cars going hybrid over the next 10 years, very bad for oil
they way he is saying it we'll get a fast rally from $50 to $150 that will set up a double top and the bottom could be as low as $50 over the next few years
with all the cars going hybrid over the next 10 years, very bad for oil
With oil dropping, very bad for hybrids.
Dawg52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
There is a need for hybrids, but I don't see everyone going that route anytime soon. For one, they cost more than many are willing to pay. Maybe in time that will get worked out.
NW-Bound
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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- Jul 3, 2008
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With oil dropping, very bad for hybrids.
and also all the alternative energy stuff... We are caught in a vicious cycle. Rebirth of the big/bad/mean 10-cyl SUV?
I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more rounds of up/down before I die. I will get back into Canadian tar sand companies again. Just don't know when yet.
NYC has mandated that every taxi be a hybrid by 2013. as time goes on manufacturers will produce only hybrids because it's more cost efficient for them.
you don't need to get oil demand down by 10% or some drastic amount. 1% per year for a few years will drive the price down
ERD50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Conversely, driving the price UP for a few years will lower demand. If that's what we want we ought to just tax it until we get the reduction we want. Simple.
It makes sense for taxis, being high usage, stop and go. But it seems silly to mandate it. If the price of gas was UP, the taxi companies would want hybrids on their own (or any better tech that comes along).
It just drives me nits to see Congress regulating technology. Pick the goal, set the price, and let the free market figure out the HOW.
-ERD50
The nits in Congress love to pick goals. They generally don't care if the technology is cost effective or if it even exists. They don't seem to care if it is even possible or what it might do to the economy or society in general. We are constantly at the mercy of the "Law of Unintended Consequences." Those bozos can't repeal that.
As a group they are techo-illiterates. They'd repeal the laws of thermodynamics if given the chance.
The same comments apply to states too.
Jeb-NY
Recycles dryer sheets
Someone may have already said this and I missed it, but what about the poor speculators loosing their shirt in the big drop in crude.
Do I see another bail out coming for the speculators?
Jeb
Do I see another bail out coming for the speculators?
Jeb
ERD50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Someone may have already said this and I missed it, but what about the poor speculators loosing their shirt in the big drop in crude.
Do I see another bail out coming for the speculators?
Jeb
I've been wondering that too. If that speculation was a cause, it must have taken oodles of money, so it was likely very leveraged.
Are they gonna be 'too big to fail'?
-ERD50
Leonidas
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Everybody and his dog was jammed up in that trade when it came time for it to let go (remember what Uncle Warren says - Innovators are followed by Imitators and then the Idiots show up at the end). Anyway, there may be have been more than a few public pension plans that were holding lots of commodities plays at the end.
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