Pension and Net Worth in Retirement Analysis

So this thread plus the one I started about WR calculations inspired me to go to immediateannuities.com and try it. I put in our total investable assets excluding the value of the deferred comp asset I’ll begin drawing upon soon. The website calculated a monthly income stream that is substantially more than our current spending. Our required withdrawals from our portfolio will decrease as we start taking my pension and SS.

I guess we could be spending quite a bit more if I’m interpreting this result correctly?
 
So this thread plus the one I started about WR calculations inspired me to go to immediateannuities.com and try it. I put in our total investable assets excluding the value of the deferred comp asset I’ll begin drawing upon soon. The website calculated a monthly income stream that is substantially more than our current spending. Our required withdrawals from our portfolio will decrease as we start taking my pension and SS.

I guess we could be spending quite a bit more if I’m interpreting this result correctly?

Hopefully you selected a COLA'd annuity with a reasonable rate of inflation? If married you also selected a 100% survivor benefit?

And you plan on leaving nothing to any potential heirs?
 
Technically, your net worth went down by $500k... you effectively traded the $500k for a life annuity. If you are alive on the day of the month that the pension benefit is due then your net worth increases by the pension benefit. The main reason it is done this way is because of the unpredictability of individual mortality and the valuation difficulties if an asset was recognized. IOW, when you buy an annuity you own a contingent asset... if you are alive on the payment date then you are entitled to receive payment.. and contingent assets are only recognized when the contingency is resolved and the amount is legally due.

GAAP requires recognition of certain contingent assets under the going-concern assumption, such as corporate deferred tax assets which are contingent upon future profitability. Personal financial net worth is calculated on a liquidation basis, which is why the official guidance ignores life-contingent pensions.

Another example is the requirement that real estate be valued net of selling costs and commissions. And yet another is the requirement that tax-deferred assets, like IRAs, be valued net of tax, as if they were 100% liquidated on the statement date. IMO, this is ultra-conservative and so the result is not meaningful for my purposes. I like to think of myself+DW as a "going concern." No doubt, we will pay tax on our tax-deferred assets. But this will happen over time at a drastically lower rate than if we followed the actual liquidation-based accounting rules for net worth.

Similarly, we do count the present value of pensions in both net worth and as bond-equivalents in our asset allocation. It's not difficult to calculate at all. I think it was a member here (danmar) who convinced me of the merits of this approach. Obviously, in our withdrawal strategy and related retirement planning, the pension is just another form of income, like future SS, which reduces our need for portfolio withdrawals. That's just common sense, and not at all inconsistent with whether one includes the NPV of pensions in NW.

My point is that if you are going to measure NW, I think it should be done in a thoughtful and consistent way that uses reasonable going-concern assumptions about longevity, taxes, and probable realizability of pension assets. The limited official guidance on this topic is very dated and probably geared exclusively toward credit decisions where banks want to know how much might be recovered in a loan default scenario.

Personally, I use NW as a metric for tracking wealth over a very long period of time. In our case, NW is more meaningful than investments alone because we have money for things like rental properties moving in and out of the investment portfolio all the time. So if I looked at investments alone, it would be a very misleading picture. NW is the complete picture. Also, we know that downsizing is in our future, so part of the proceeds are included in future withdrawal plans. And yes, to the OP's point, part of the rationale for keeping the pension in NW was simple consistency with the way the lump sum had been treated for several decades while working.
 
Hopefully you selected a COLA'd annuity with a reasonable rate of inflation? If married you also selected a 100% survivor benefit?



And you plan on leaving nothing to any potential heirs?



I didn’t select an annuity. I’m self-annuitizing to a certain extent but it’s not technically an annuity. I have the next 18 months of distributions invested in a stable value fund and the rest in a balanced fund.

We have an estate plan but leaving assets to heirs is not a priority. We have no kids.
 
Scuba, I was referring to your Immediateannuities.com comparison. On that website, you can select many variations to the theme. A single life annuity gives a high monthly. Each step you select with a little more security reduces the bigger number than the single life annuity shown on their 1st page.
 
If you use FIRECalc the value of your investments will decrease but you add in the value of the pension. The overall change in retirement income projections should be minimal.

CAUTION: Determine if FIRECalc is seeking annual or monthly pension amounts when completing your worksheets. Inputting the wrong format instantly puts you in the "Garbage In = Garbage Out" scenario.

In my personal view you were incorrect in your previous methods. A Pension Account Balance should not be entered as an investment because it is managed by your employer, and your assumed ROI percentages for your other investments should not apply to this amount.

Your employer knows what the contractually guaranteed amount of your future pension will be, and they then calculate a NPV for this string of payments and distribute it to the employees (God only knows why) using the mandatory interest rates for this purpose established by the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation. These rates are published monthly and can change many times each year.

My personal Lump Sum amount increased by over $100K between June of 2012 when this option was first given to us, and Oct of 2012 when I decided to retire. The increase in my pension's NPV was due only to an interest rate reduction by the PBGC
 
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GAAP requires recognition of certain contingent assets under the going-concern assumption, such as corporate deferred tax assets which are contingent upon future profitability. Personal financial net worth is calculated on a liquidation basis, which is why the official guidance ignores life-contingent pensions.

Another example is the requirement that real estate be valued net of selling costs and commissions. And yet another is the requirement that tax-deferred assets, like IRAs, be valued net of tax, as if they were 100% liquidated on the statement date. IMO, this is ultra-conservative and so the result is not meaningful for my purposes. I like to think of myself+DW as a "going concern." No doubt, we will pay tax on our tax-deferred assets. But this will happen over time at a drastically lower rate than if we followed the actual liquidation-based accounting rules for net worth.

Similarly, we do count the present value of pensions in both net worth and as bond-equivalents in our asset allocation. It's not difficult to calculate at all. I think it was a member here (danmar) who convinced me of the merits of this approach. Obviously, in our withdrawal strategy and related retirement planning, the pension is just another form of income, like future SS, which reduces our need for portfolio withdrawals. That's just common sense, and not at all inconsistent with whether one includes the NPV of pensions in NW.

My point is that if you are going to measure NW, I think it should be done in a thoughtful and consistent way that uses reasonable going-concern assumptions about longevity, taxes, and probable realizability of pension assets. The limited official guidance on this topic is very dated and probably geared exclusively toward credit decisions where banks want to know how much might be recovered in a loan default scenario.

Personally, I use NW as a metric for tracking wealth over a very long period of time. In our case, NW is more meaningful than investments alone because we have money for things like rental properties moving in and out of the investment portfolio all the time. So if I looked at investments alone, it would be a very misleading picture. NW is the complete picture. Also, we know that downsizing is in our future, so part of the proceeds are included in future withdrawal plans. And yes, to the OP's point, part of the rationale for keeping the pension in NW was simple consistency with the way the lump sum had been treated for several decades while working.

You're obviously free to do whatever you feel is most relevant for you.... just like companies can do whatever they wish to for management accounting. I think the thing that you are missing is the measurement difficulties in applying individual mortality in measuring the asset that you would recognize. If one is the issuer and needs to measure the liability for a cohort of 1,000 life contingent annuities, then one can easily come up with a sensible value.... however in many cases it would be foolish to apply group mortality to measure an individual annuity asset given variability in health impacting life expectancy.

If one did record an asset, then one would need to use mortality assumptions specific to the individual's health to properly reflect the likelihood of receiving the contractual cash flows, and potentially impair the asset if the individual's health changed adversely. At the end of the day, the Committee decided that the measurement difficulties would not result in a value that would be representationally faithful. I agree with their conclusion... you don't... which is fine... that is why we call them generally accepted accounting principles rather than universally accepted accounting principles. FWIW, I think if the issue came before the FASB today that they would end up in the same spot for the same reasons.

Given the measurement difficulties I think it is better to exclude annuities from assets, disclose their existance and terms and then let users of the financial statements decide how to factor them in to credit or other decisions... so while they would not be included in net worth a user could consider the future payments in their decision analysis to the degree that they wish to.

BTW, as an aside, deferred taxes are not a contingent asset... they are an asset and the value of the asset is assessed for realiziability based on whether it is more likely than not that the deductible differences will result in future tax savings.
 
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Scuba, I was referring to your Immediateannuities.com comparison. On that website, you can select many variations to the theme. A single life annuity gives a high monthly. Each step you select with a little more security reduces the bigger number than the single life annuity shown on their 1st page.



Oh ok, I’m not sure. I’ll go back to the site and try the numbers again. Thanks.
 
Hint: FIRECalc uses annual numbers for all dollar amount inputs.

One planning tool I used was built on the premise of monthly pension amount data. Inserting my wife's $7K annual pension as $7K really blew things up! Once that was corrected all the various tools yielded similar results. Which is one very good reason to use multiple tools!

A data input error is bound to show up when comparing the results of multiple retirement forecasting tools, whereas it can easily remain hidden if using only one tool.
 
...At the end of the day, the Committee decided that the measurement difficulties would not result in a value that would be representationally faithful...

So zero is a better answer? No. It can't be a faithful representation if it's so obviously incomplete. Even a flawed non-zero answer would be a more accurate reflection of economic reality.

But more to the point, I just don't agree that pensions were excluded due to measurement difficulties. Your second paragraph shows how not-difficult it actually is. Tools are readily available to do exactly what you described. I think pensions were excluded simply because the whole thing is based on a liquidation approach. I provided two other examples in my prior post that make this pretty clear.

In any case, I'm using NW for my own purposes. So I'm not bound to any antiquated accounting guidance. I'm free to use reasonable assumptions about longevity, taxes, and pension realizability that are more relevant to my specific situation. In the end, I'm more concerned about consistency in the periods before and after the annuity starts. Like OP, my financial position did not inexplicably degrade in conjunction with the annuity election. That's the stark economic reality, separate from the expediency of accounting rules. And secondarily, as I said before, it was danmar (a user here) who convinced me of the importance of including pension value in AA decisions. But I won't go into that here.
 
If you chose to take the lump sum, you would have counted it. Why not guesstimate it based on payment amount?
 
That is just where AcSEC decided to draw the line.... they included "Nonforfeitable rights to receive future sums that .... are not contingent on the holder’s life expectancy or the
occurrence of a particular event, such as disability or death."... so if one bought an annuity where the right to receive future sums was contingent on the holder's continued life then it was not recognized as an asset but was disclosed. Unfortuntely, back in those days AcSEC did not publish basis for conclusions for SoPs but my recollection was that non-recognition was due to measurement concerns and by analogy to gain contingencies that are not recognized until the contingency is resolved... which is what creates the legal right to receive the payment... and assets.. particularly financial assets... are generally based on legal rights.

In a way it reflects the same discomfort that many people feel about plain-vanilla SPIAs... writing out a big check to an insurer and then dying early and not recovering thier premium. Now interestingly, a SPIA with a refund feature which is common today, would still be recognized because the holder (and their estate) would still be entitled to receive future sums that are not life contingent.
 
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I assume that pb4uski and cobra9777 are CPA's. Please stop. You are giving me flashbacks to when I worked in the firm. Thankfully, I got my CPA and went into management at mega corp. Never to argue about a FASB again.

FWIW, I think the thing I would rely on is the need for the user. Since an individual would have little need to define or present NW with the degree of precision that is being discussed, the governing body probably did not see the need to be precise. My personal opinion (all CPA's have an opinion) :) is that precision would require some level of recognition since the payments would continue in the event of the death of either spouse. Once one of us are gone, it would be hard to argue to include in NW given that upon death, there would be no value.

On another note, thank you all for the discussion. I think the discussion helped me understand that what I'm actually struggling with is the transition from the accumulation phase to the I no longer make money and have to live off my assets and streams of income phase (decumulation?). If I keep thinking about the three legged stool, things feel better/right. I'll have my pension, SS, and income from my remaining assets. Therefore, at this point, it's not so much about my investable assets (loosely, my NW) as it is about my income stream. Result, update spreadsheet, make a note and move on.

Thanks everyone!
 
I have never counted my pension as NW. I look at my pension in terms of 'free' WR.
 
I have never counted my pension as NW. I look at my pension in terms of 'free' WR.
"Free" except for the extra time you worked because you apparently ignored the value. It might be an appropriate buffer though.
 
Well, given that I did not educate myself in the sciences, it's all clear to me now why this is a difficult idea for me to grasp. I mean seriously, if it takes a reference to Schrodinger's cat to understand my dilemma, then I feel much better about having said dilemma. :)

LOL! I almost spit out a mouthful of hot coffee reading this comment.

But since you were trying to determine your Safe Withdrawal Rate for your entire Portfolio, including the possibly nebulous value of your Lump Sum pension amount in your portfolio was correct. Extracting the value of the Lump Sum from your Portfolio, then subtracting the monthly pension amount from your retirement income needs, will eventually yield the new Withdrawal Rate required from your reduced portfolio if you elect the pension versus the lump Sum.

Still a questionable exercise in mental gymnastics (in my opinion) UNLESS it is being done immediately prior to retirement with a guaranteed Lump Sum amount having been provided to you by your employer. In that timing situation this comparison is the right thing to do!
 
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I used NPV for the pensions until I retired. Now I just spend the pensions and calculate the extra draw on my stash (1.8% last year). I am trying to increase that to at least 3%.
 
2 1/2 yrs ago, I took the annuity at 55. The old Co. pension transformed into a cash balance plan as 401k's took their place in the late 90's. Mine had the option of a lump sum or annuity option. Could have left it to grow, but pulled the trigger after doing a little math. https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/savings/savings-withdrawal-calculator-tool.aspx Seemed like a good deal at the time. No regrets so far. As if I live til 85, will give a 5.5% return. Just another leg on the 6 legged stool. lol lol
 
I assume anyone adding Pension value into NW are doing the same thing with Social Security? I mean it doesn't make any sense to treat them differently. Does it?

Of course, if we do that, all of those articles that people write saying that a huge majority of retirees are broke with have to be rewritten.
 
With the caveat that I am a non-math person, unfamiliar with accounting principles.

The pension does have value. You had the exact value at the time it was annuitized/converted. It seems to me the value would decrease a little each month, as you and your spouse age - but you also receive a payout. The value could be calculated (not by me) if you wanted.

I am drifting here a bit, but I recall reading an article by Wade Phau (can't spell) a while back as to how an annuity acted like a bond fund and allowed more flexibility as to your stock allocation.
 
I looked at mine as a cash account that had not been taxed. A trad IRA / 401k if you will. As it was not a defined benefit. Not adjusted for COLA, etc. Only Gov. type jobs have those these days, as they were deemed unsustainable by the private sector decades ago. Due to increased life expectancy.

I removed it from my net worth when I took the annuity option. Over the cash option. If I had taken the cash value, It could have been added. But would have been taxed to death.
 
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I guess if you wanted to add SS to your NW you could get if from the SS website.
Now, how to calculate 30+ years of growth?
LOL LOL

Social Security
Paid by you: $132,909
Paid by your employers: $137,335
 
You're obviously free to do whatever you feel is most relevant for you.... just like companies can do whatever they wish to for management accounting. I think the thing that you are missing is the measurement difficulties in applying individual mortality in measuring the asset that you would recognize. If one is the issuer and needs to measure the liability for a cohort of 1,000 life contingent annuities, then one can easily come up with a sensible value.... however in many cases it would be foolish to apply group mortality to measure an individual annuity asset given variability in health impacting life expectancy.

If one did record an asset, then one would need to use mortality assumptions specific to the individual's health to properly reflect the likelihood of receiving the contractual cash flows, and potentially impair the asset if the individual's health changed adversely. At the end of the day, the Committee decided that the measurement difficulties would not result in a value that would be representationally faithful. I agree with their conclusion... you don't... which is fine... that is why we call them generally accepted accounting principles rather than universally accepted accounting principles. FWIW, I think if the issue came before the FASB today that they would end up in the same spot for the same reasons.

Given the measurement difficulties I think it is better to exclude annuities from assets, disclose their existance and terms and then let users of the financial statements decide how to factor them in to credit or other decisions... so while they would not be included in net worth a user could consider the future payments in their decision analysis to the degree that they wish to.

BTW, as an aside, deferred taxes are not a contingent asset... they are an asset and the value of the asset is assessed for realiziability based on whether it is more likely than not that the deductible differences will result in future tax savings.

This is not a contingent asset, annuities to the extent there is a market to purchase the annuity, and almost certainly there are multiple methods by which one can sell an annuity as companies are willing to purchase them, are merely purchased assets, offset by liabilities from the insurance provider. The value of the annuity obviously changes as the credit worthiness of the insurer, the health and terms of the recipient but getting a quote for the value is quite simple.

Per SFAS 157 "Paragraph 5 of SFAS No. 157 (now known as ASC 820 in the updated FASB Codification) defines fair value as “the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date.” Of note, this Statement requires consideration of the exit price paid (if liability) or received (if asset) in a hypothetical transaction in an orderly market (i.e., not a forced liquidation or sold under duress)."
Do you want to sell your annuity? It is relatively easy to see what it is worth and to exclude it from your net worth seems incorrect, same as the value of your home.

https://www.annuity.org/selling-payments/
 
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