Personal Inflation Rates - (Not the current CPI or CPIW Rate)

[almost there]

my rent has doubled and that is half my spending. groceries up significantly and that is another third of my spending. not much impact from gas and utilities. all told I am coming in at around 40% rise in costs without any real change in spending patterns. Thanks fed reserve, free stimmy, and 50 years of war spending.

I blame a decade of almost ZERO% interest rates as well. That and printing billions for no reason in 2021 / 2022?. Comes as no surprise really. And we are still printing....

"As of March 2021, COVID costs totaled $5.2 trillion. World War II cost $4.7 trillion (in today’s dollars)."

"All-in money printing totaled $13 trillion: $5.2 for COVID + $4.5 for quantitative easing + $3 for infrastructure. Mountains of money cause inflation"

 

[John Galt III]

My experience is that they actually want you to call once a year so they can try to sell you more products and add-ons like cell-phones, alarm systems, etc. I've never had trouble getting them to reduce the bill at least a little bit, sometime I get them to cut quite a bit off. My read on this is that they actually expect you to call and complain. Also I think the customer service rep has some latitude on how much they can offer. If you get a 'good' one they'll work harder for you.

Thanks for the encouragement!

 

[Teacher Terry]

Rents in Reno went up 61% in the past few years according to a article I read. I couldn’t afford to live here if I didn’t own.

 

[John Galt III]

Rents in Reno went up 61% in the past few years according to a article I read. I couldn’t afford to live here if I didn’t own.

Maybe everyone else knows this, but why on earth would rents go up so much? Is it because government helicopter money was paying for the increases? And still is, maybe?

 

[ShokWaveRider]

This month's shopping bill was the same as last months, no real change for this years monthly groceries.

One interesting thing I noticed... I would love to know why.

Saltine Crackers at Aldi are $0.98c a pack. Walmart the same pack is $3.97 (No kidding)

 

[11522914]

Saltine Crackers at Aldi are $0.98c a pack. Walmart the same pack is $3.97 (No kidding)

This is precisely the reason why I love shopping at Aldi's. Virtually hundreds of similar items and prices.

 

[GenXguy]

This month's shopping bill was the same as last months, no real change for this years monthly groceries.

One interesting thing I noticed... I would love to know why.

Saltine Crackers at Aldi are $0.98c a pack. Walmart the same pack is $3.97 (No kidding)

The Great Value (Walmart brand) saltines at our Walmart is 98 cents. It had been 76 cents in 2020, then jumped to 82 (IIRC) cents, then to 98 in recent months.

Something has gone up with every trip to the store - it's concerning. Some grocery items are up around 50% since 2020, like the 3 pound bag of apples I used to buy.

 

[aja8888]

The Great Value (Walmart brand) saltines at our Walmart is 98 cents. It had been 76 cents in 2020, then jumped to 82 (IIRC) cents, then to 98 in recent months.

Something has gone up with every trip to the store - it's concerning. Some grocery items are up around 50% since 2020, like the 3 pound bag of apples I used to buy.

Great Value Walmart yogurt (4 pack of 6 ounce cartons) was $1.24 for a long time. Now it's $1.82.

 

[Koolau]

Maybe everyone else knows this, but why on earth would rents go up so much? Is it because government helicopter money was paying for the increases? And still is, maybe?

I suppose helicopter money is one factor but also, fewer houses have been built and likely way fewer apartment type housing has been built. Blame it on Covid or investment philosophy (for instance: why invest in housing/rental properties when the stock market is - well has been - a near sure thing?) No expert so YMMV.

 

[Teacher Terry]

John, housing prices have skyrocketed because so many people are moving here especially from California. We have a housing shortage and people can charge more for rent. Our homeless population is increasing and this includes seniors. Housing is more expensive than Sacramento. No government money is helping people pay rent.

 

[Koolau]

John, housing prices have skyrocketed because so many people are moving here especially from California. We have a housing shortage and people can charge more for rent. Our homeless population is increasing and this includes seniors. Housing is more expensive than Sacramento. No government money is helping people pay rent.

Hey, maybe we can all now afford to move to Cali! All those empty houses and apartments sound like a dream to us who are still "California Dreaming'" - but YMMV.

 

[Scuba]

I haven’t calculated ours but we’ve had some major events that would skew the numbers quite a bit. DH had a heart attack and quadruple bypass surgery so I’m sure we will hit our out of pocket maximum on his medical this year. We paid cash for a solar installation also. OTOH, our only travel was a trip to GA to see family and all of our more expensive trips have been cancelled due to health issues.

For gas, food, and utilities, there is no doubt that inflation has driven huge increases. Gas is around $6/gallon, groceries are up double digits, and utilities such as gas, water, and trash collection have all implemented huge double digit increases. Thankfully for us the impact in absolute dollars is very manageable because we don’t drive much, quit eating out following DH’s heart attack, and the utility costs are a small part of our total spending.

However I feel sorry for workers at the lower end of the pay scale with long commutes. They must be really hurting, especially if they have families to feed.

 

[almost there]

I suppose helicopter money is one factor but also, fewer houses have been built and likely way fewer apartment type housing has been built. Blame it on Covid or investment philosophy (for instance: why invest in housing/rental properties when the stock market is - well has been - a near sure thing?) No expert so YMMV.

A few ideas / ramblings on the subject. etc.

Why a "near sure thing"?
The dollar was intentionally devalued and interest rates were kept low too long. Should have all ended in late 2020 early 2021.
But it kept going. Why? Thats a question for historians.
And yes, the stock market went up because of it.
It had no choice being juiced like that.

To give an idea how much was printed in the past few years.
(It isn't talked about much in the news)
$4.473 trillion total was created during the "Great Recession"
$8.95 trillion created to fight Covid 19.

Covid rate cuts.
"The Fed cut its target for the federal funds rate, the rate banks pay to borrow from each other overnight, by a total of 1.5 percentage points at its meetings on March 3 and March 15, 2020. These cuts lowered the funds rate to a range of 0% to 0.25%."
.
"The Federal Reserve's balance sheet ballooned following their March 15, 2020 announcement to carry out quantitative easing to increase the liquidity of U.S. banks. It reached around 8.95 trillion U.S. dollars as of May 17, 2022. This measure was taken to increase the money supply and stimulate economic growth in the wake of the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic."

Maybe its not that prices are going up, rent etc.
But rather its that the dollar has been devalued?
Think Zimbabwe money with Covid as the excuse.
Over reaction shutting down the economy.
Not allowing it to re-open for far too long.
Then printing money to replace the dollars lost.
Huge error, but many didn't notice as the stock market kept going up.
And / or they were still getting paid to stay home. Or both.
Not all, but a great many.
Others lost everything. Winners and losers, chosen by the govt.

My rental had its 1st vacancy in 7 years this past March. 4 bedroom house 3 miles from the ocean in SoCal. Had over 100 pre applications in the 1st week. And yes the lease / rent was adjusted to the mid-range of the current rental market.
Up 37%. As I only had raised it $200 / month total over the past 7 years.
Rather than raising it 5% annually like most. I waited for a vacancy.
(Prev. renters bought a home, as they thought they were being left behind. As they watched prices double over the past 7 years)

Bedrooms for rent in the area are now $900-$1400 a month.
Making it difficult for those starting out, starting over etc.

Not saying I know how to fix this.
(Aside from waiting for inflation to catch up to all the new dollars printed)
Just pointing a few possible ways we got here.

Maybe someone else knows historically how countries in this situation corrected it?
Really have no idea. As you cant put the genie back into the bottle / Pull money out of circulation.

 

[Koolau]

A few ideas / ramblings on the subject. etc.

Why a "near sure thing"?
The dollar was intentionally devalued and interest rates were kept low too long. Should have all ended in late 2020 early 2021.
But it kept going. Why? Thats a question for historians.
And yes, the stock market went up because of it.
It had no choice being juiced like that.

To give an idea how much was printed in the past few years.
(It isn't talked about much in the news)
$4.473 trillion total was created during the "Great Recession"
$8.95 trillion created to fight Covid 19.

Covid rate cuts.
"The Fed cut its target for the federal funds rate, the rate banks pay to borrow from each other overnight, by a total of 1.5 percentage points at its meetings on March 3 and March 15, 2020. These cuts lowered the funds rate to a range of 0% to 0.25%."
.
"The Federal Reserve's balance sheet ballooned following their March 15, 2020 announcement to carry out quantitative easing to increase the liquidity of U.S. banks. It reached around 8.95 trillion U.S. dollars as of May 17, 2022. This measure was taken to increase the money supply and stimulate economic growth in the wake of the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic."

Maybe its not that prices are going up, rent etc.
But rather its that the dollar has been devalued?
Think Zimbabwe money with Covid as the excuse.
Over reaction shutting down the economy.
Not allowing it to re-open for far too long.
Then printing money to replace the dollars lost.
Huge error, but many didn't notice as the stock market kept going up.
And / or they were still getting paid to stay home. Or both.
Not all, but a great many.
Others lost everything. Winners and losers, chosen by the govt.

My rental had its 1st vacancy in 7 years this past March. 4 bedroom house 3 miles from the ocean in SoCal. Had over 100 pre applications in the 1st week. And yes the lease / rent was adjusted to the mid-range of the current rental market.
Up 37%. As I only had raised it $200 / month total over the past 7 years.
Rather than raising it 5% annually like most. I waited for a vacancy.
(Prev. renters bought a home, as they thought they were being left behind. As they watched prices double over the past 7 years)

Bedrooms for rent in the area are now $900-$1400 a month.
Making it difficult for those starting out, starting over etc.

Not saying I know how to fix this.
(Aside from waiting for inflation to catch up to all the new dollars printed)
Just pointing a few possible ways we got here.

Maybe someone else knows historically how countries in this situation corrected it?
Really have no idea. As you cant put the genie back into the bottle / Pull money out of circulation.

My understanding is that money can be taken back out of the economy. I don't know how that is done, but if you can put money in, you should be able to take it out. There WOULD be consequences - intended and unintended. No expert, so YMMV.

 

[Mulligan]

My understanding is that money can be taken back out of the economy. I don't know how that is done, but if you can put money in, you should be able to take it out. There WOULD be consequences - intended and unintended. No expert, so YMMV.

In theory the Fed’s new “QT” will essence attempt to accomplish this…. from Washington Post…

How does that happen?
By the Fed letting the bonds it’s purchased reach maturity and run off its balance sheet. It effectively created the money it used to buy the bonds out of thin air. Then the Treasury Department “pays” the Fed at the maturity of the bond by subtracting the sum from the cash balance it keeps on deposit with the Fed -- effectively making the money disappear. To meet its spending obligations, the Treasury needs to replenish that cash pile by selling new securities. When banks buy those Treasuries, they reduce their own reserves, thus draining money from the system and undoing what was created in QE.

 

[Koolau]

In theory the Fed’s new “QT” will essence attempt to accomplish this…. from Washington Post…

How does that happen?
By the Fed letting the bonds it’s purchased reach maturity and run off its balance sheet. It effectively created the money it used to buy the bonds out of thin air. Then the Treasury Department “pays” the Fed at the maturity of the bond by subtracting the sum from the cash balance it keeps on deposit with the Fed -- effectively making the money disappear. To meet its spending obligations, the Treasury needs to replenish that cash pile by selling new securities. When banks buy those Treasuries, they reduce their own reserves, thus draining money from the system and undoing what was created in QE.

Thanks for this tutorial on taking money back out by the Fed. Glad to know it's happening - or about to happen. I know there will be some negative consequences, but inflation is already a negative consequence of too much money sloshing around. YMMV

 

[almost there]

"Quantitative easing, or qe, once an unconventional tool of monetary policy, has become commonplace over the past decade. During the pandemic alone the Federal Reserve bought a staggering $3.3trn in Treasuries and $1.3trn in mortgage-backed securities as it sought to keep borrowing costs low. The reverse process, quantitative tightening (qt), when central banks shrink their balance-sheets, has been far rarer. The Fed is the only central bank to have truly attempted it, and it had to stop abruptly in 2019 because of market ructions. So its plan for reducing its assets—trailed in the minutes of its meeting in March, published on April 6th—takes it into relatively uncharted territory."

Officials like to downplay the significance of qt. When at the Fed’s helm, Janet Yellen compared it to watching paint dry. Jerome Powell, her successor, says it will operate in the background. In truth it is akin to dismantling an auxiliary engine for the economy, with only hazy knowledge of the consequences.

 

[Koolau]

"Quantitative easing, or qe, once an unconventional tool of monetary policy, has become commonplace over the past decade. During the pandemic alone the Federal Reserve bought a staggering $3.3trn in Treasuries and $1.3trn in mortgage-backed securities as it sought to keep borrowing costs low. The reverse process, quantitative tightening (qt), when central banks shrink their balance-sheets, has been far rarer. The Fed is the only central bank to have truly attempted it, and it had to stop abruptly in 2019 because of market ructions. So its plan for reducing its assets—trailed in the minutes of its meeting in March, published on April 6th—takes it into relatively uncharted territory."

Officials like to downplay the significance of qt. When at the Fed’s helm, Janet Yellen compared it to watching paint dry. Jerome Powell, her successor, says it will operate in the background. In truth it is akin to dismantling an auxiliary engine for the economy, with only hazy knowledge of the consequences.

Often wondered which is worse: Creating a quasi/semi gummint/independent(?) agency like the FED to manage our currency system or just let the "real" gummint do it. I think either would eventually lead to disaster but both together can't fail to do it sooner. Not to be a pessimist, you understand because YMMV.

 

[jollystomper]

I checked Quicken to compare our current YTD expenses to the same period last year. It is just one of the many possible imperfect "personal inflation" measurements . So far we are pretty much flat, down about 2%. This includes $7,500 for vacation so far this year that was zero at this time last year. Our gasoline costs are about 16% higher. Food (groceries + takeout + dining out) is 16% lower. All utilities (electric+sanitation+cable) are about 4% higher. Some other categories are way down, and balance off the vacation expenses, due to one time/long term expenses last year - for example, renovation of a bathroom and new golf clubs (both of which I'm glad I spent the money on last year, given what I see the current costs for those items would be).

Our home was reassessed this year so our property tax bill will be higher.

Our final first half personal inflation rate was 4.2%



We just received our property tax bill, that has increased 5.2%.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Ours this year has been about 2%, we do not use much Gas and food has been negligible as we do shop the sales. We are spending so far about 2% more as last year, I do not track it as granularly as to measure it to the right side of the decimal point.

 

[Koolau]

Ours this year has been about 2%, we do not use much Gas and food has been negligible as we do shop the sales. We are spending so far about 2% more as last year, I do not track it as granularly as to measure it to the right side of the decimal point.

I guess I'm looking at stuff like airline tickets, meals out, gas, food items, electricity, (stuff we notice.) That stuff is up over 10%. But things more in our control (charities) are up even more since I know they are hurting due to inflation and I adjust accordingly.

The good news is that we have a fair amount of play in our (non-existent) budget. The other "good" thing, is that I'm well along my 30 year plan. My original 30 year plan expires in 13 years - but I've updated to a new 30 year plan which (now) expires in 24 years. I don't think I'll need 24 more years, but you never know and YMMV.

 

[Freedom56]

Our condo fee in South Florida is going up from $669.69 to $683.97 per month representing a 2.1% increase for the next 12 months. We were expecting much worse but the billionaire who owns the bulk of the condo units in our building along with four other buildings in the area had enough of the price gouging and threatened to cancel contracts in all his buildings moving forward and the vendors quickly fell in line dropped their ridiculous 15-37% price hikes. The biggest offender was Zurich Insurance who increased their premiums 34% despite the fact that we have never filed a claim and we are a HVHZ certified building with full impact glass. They dropped the premium increase to 2.7% after threats of cancellation.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Update: Our personal Inflation rate, as I measure it went down by 2% last month. On schedule to be on par this month, neither up or down.

 

[karen1972]

I just compared the 1H 2021 to 1H 2022 and we are -3%.

The 3 big items that changed to decrease our spending
1. Refinanced home last April
2. Switched home/auto when it came up for renewal last Dec
3. Expensive Tier 3 drug went generic

So I don't expect the 2nd half savings to be nearly as much but hopefully prices keep coming down...

 

[GTFan]

Update: Our personal Inflation rate, as I measure it went down by 2% last month. On schedule to be on par this month, neither up or down.

Even shopping sales, food is way up. You might be saving in other areas but I guarantee you're paying more now than you did last year for food and gas.