Poll:Are you in the "Won The Game" Club with reference to Fixed Income Investing?

[ShokWaveRider]

Poll:Are you in the "Won The Game" Club with reference to Fixed Income Investing?

Are you a member of the "We Won the Game, so why Keep Playing" Crowd?

Do you only invest in CD's, Bonds, Treasuries, Cashish etc. And are you comfortable doing so. This means NO Stocks.

Bonds, Bond Mutual Funds and CD's are considered the same for the purposes of this poll.

This is NOT an Inflation related post, so please refrain from commenting on it. If you feel that you need to keep investing to offset inflation, you cannot be a member of the club. It has nothing to do with net worth, total stash dollars etc. It is more a frame of mind.

 

[MichaelB]

I feel like we won the game, invest in equities, and would never consider a portfolio with only fixed income.

 

[braumeister]

Not sure how to respond since I put everything into Bitcoin.

 

[travelover]

It won't be clear if I truly won the game until both DW and I are dead. Right now our pensions cover our expenses and SS is mad money, but we are keeping our powder dry for end of life expenses. That powder includes 60% stocks to cover inflation.

 

[pb4uski]

I feel like we won the game, invest in equities, and would never consider a portfolio with only fixed income.

+1 We have won the game.... which I define as 100% success rate in FIRECalc for any AA.

We could avoid equities entirely but choose to remain invested in equities since at the end of the day we are effectively investing for our heirs and charities and as far as we are concerned, the more for them the better.

So how do I respond to the poll... Yes? or No?

 

[RobbieB]

I won the game and equities are my largest allocation by far so I voted no.

 

[street]

I feel like we won the game, invest in equities, and would never consider a portfolio with only fixed income.

^this

 

[Dawg52]

I voted no but most of my portfolio is in fixed income because of the 'won the game' mentality. I'm around to 20/80.

 

[W2R]

I feel like we won the game, invest in equities, and would never consider a portfolio with only fixed income.

+1000000000000000000000

Those who sold all of their equities I would consider to have LOST the game, certainly not to have won it by any means or even be treading water. Gee.

Try the books at this link for more information: https://www.bogleheads.org/readbooks.htm

 

[Dtail]

Well we are 100% in Firecalc at our current 55/45 AA.
However, we don't feel we have won the game at all, as things can change down the road and our SS/Pensions will never cover all our expenses; thus staying in equities.

 

[Dash man]

I also feel like we’ve won the game. We have enough fixed income to ride out a severe equity downturn, but we’d never go full fixed income.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Those who sold all of their equities I would consider to have LOST the game, certainly not to have won it by any means or even be treading water. Gee.

Try the books at this link for more information: https://www.bogleheads.org/readbooks.htm

Depends, we have not had any stocks for over 20 years now, but seem to average 3.5 - 4%. Yes we were lucky and got some very long (10 year) 3%+ fixed income investments. But recently we secured some 3.8% so all is well for now.

That is fine for us as we do not need or want anymore.

 

[Aerides]

I won the game by having enough assets, reasonably invested, to ER. But maintaining a SWR in the 3-4% range for anyone under, say, 70, means a healthy % of equities in their AA.

I mean I guess if I wanted to work until I could have a 1% SWR, and then invest only in safe stuff, I could have, but to me that's losing for the sake of winning. IE, I'd have had to OMY'd for at least 5 more years to pull that off - basically all you'd be doing is inflation protection.

So I think by your definition, winning the game means "did you work too long?".

If I won the lottery tonight and added, say $5M to my portfolio, I still don't think I would go all cash, because that doesn't make sense with all I've learned to get here.

 

[USGrant1962]

No, I hold 57% equities.

Interestingly, I entered 0% equities in FC and it drops my success rate from well over 100% to 87%-95%, depending on which type of FI I pick.

Guess I gotta go back to work - not.

 

[WhenIsItTime]

Depends, we have not had any stocks for over 20 years now, but seem to average 3.5 - 4%. Yes we were lucky and got some very long (10 year) 3%+ fixed income investments. But recently we secured some 3.8% so all is well for now.

That is fine for us as we do not need or want anymore.

To OP of quote: The S&P was about $1,300 (approaching tech bubble) in April 1999 and $2,950 now. That is only about 4.2% growth (anybody confirm or disagree?). I was surprised not higher. Your method avoided the highs and lows, but not too far off.

To everyone: However, I'd say if "you won!" then you can invest in equities and ride out any bumps to achieve the avg 10% (ignoring inflation) that has existed historically. In today's situation, hard to take fixed income that is same as inflation.

 

[COcheesehead]

I feel like I’ve won the game. Firecalc gives me a 100% success rate with 0% in equities. I think that defines “winning.” However, I still have equities for about 35% - 40% of my AA.

 

[njhowie]

Those who sold all of their equities I would consider to have LOST the game, certainly not to have won it by any means or even be treading water. Gee.

Uncouth, buddy.

 

[Oz investor]

i simply can't find enough suitable fixed-interest securities to do the job for me

i still have one floating rate security

but the reward v. risk ratio is totally stuffed ( at corporate and state level ) ( imo )

have i won the game using mostly equities , well i will probably have to wait until next year and see if i can get back to a ' normal ' retirement lifestyle ( for me ) and see what the budget expenses look like

 

[cbo111]

Not sure how to respond since I put everything into Bitcoin.

I assume you are kidding, but maybe not.
I get this uneasy feeling that Bitcoin and its other variants are going to do something like Google did 15 years ago. A few years ago I thought this Bitcoin thing was a passing fad. So far, I appear to be wrong....just like I was wrong about Google many years ago, thinking it was an unprofitable concept. Like many of you, I suspect, my desire to really learn about this new investment class is not very strong. Hope it doesn't come back to haunt me.

 

[MarieIG]

That would be a no.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

No. I have enough in fixed + pension + social security to declare a win. The rest can be in equities.

 

[pb4uski]

To OP of quote: The S&P was about $1,300 (approaching tech bubble) in April 1999 and $2,950 now. That is only about 4.2% growth (anybody confirm or disagree?). I was surprised not higher. Your method avoided the highs and lows, but not too far off. ....

Disagree.... in calculating return you need to consider dividends in addition to just the change in the index. With dividends the annual return is 5.93%

Jan 1999 to Mar 2019 including dividends: 5.93% https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...llocation1_1=100&total1=100&total2=0&total3=0

Jan 1999 to Mar 2019 ignoring dividends: 4.02% (close to your 4.2% growth) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...llocation1_1=100&total1=100&total2=0&total3=0

 

[Badger]

+1 We have won the game.... which I define as 100% success rate in FIRECalc for any AA.

We could avoid equities entirely but choose to remain invested in equities since at the end of the day we are effectively investing for our heirs and charities and as far as we are concerned, the more for them the better.

So how do I respond to the poll... Yes? or No?

+1 IRAs in Wellington and Wellesley with a good chunk in taxable individual stocks and another in cash. If it were just the 2 of us I would choose to get rid of the stocks but the dividends are nice and when the time comes the 2 grown children can start at a new basis so they are really for them. A good chance they will get the IRAs too and have to pay RMD. But somehow I don't think they will mind.


What started years ago as a concern of maybe having to eat cat food when we retired has since become a fun project to see how well we can set up the children for the rest of their lives (assuming they will consider some recommendations on how to handle their windfall.)



Cheers!

 

[Dawg52]

+1000000000000000000000

Those who sold all of their equities I would consider to have LOST the game, certainly not to have won it by any means or even be treading water. Gee.

If you are referring to have sold all in 2008....I would agree. But i've known many who amassed a nice nest egg w/o ever owning any stocks. My parents being one example. And they didn't work into their golden years. Retired before 60. One size doesn't fit all.

 

[MichaelB]

If you are referring to have sold all in 2008....I would agree. But i've known many who amassed a nice nest egg w/o ever owning any stocks. My parents being one example. And they didn't work into their golden years. Retired before 60. One size doesn't fit all.

Yes, one size does not fit all. Social Security, company pension, rental real estate all can provide an important source of retirement income. OP is not considering any of that, however, and limiting the discussion to only fixed income and equities.

Evaluating the merits of only fixed income without mentioning inflation is like asking about living in SE Florida - but not mentioning hurricanes. Not talking about the risk does not mean it isn’t still present.