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View Poll Results: Is social security a critical part of your retirement plan?
I can live comfortably without social security 109 40.22%
My plan is dependent on receiving my full SS amount - no haircuts 37 13.65%
My plan is dependent on SS but would be okay with a 25% haircut 112 41.33%
What is social security? 13 4.80%
Voters: 271. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-09-2017, 05:46 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Blue Collar Guy View Post
hahah, i was free thinking of programs hahah
Could Caitlyn Jenner get wic is she adopted a child? Interesting times.
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Old 06-09-2017, 05:58 AM   #62
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No SS for me, nor pension. Too far away and a paltry sum when it arrives. Probably less than 500 a month, and only after I hit 70.

I do have some SS in my scenarios, every bit helps of course, especially on the tail end of longevity risks. I am counting on the healthcare system (EU citizen) to remain as-is though.
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Old 06-09-2017, 06:07 AM   #63
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No haircuts, or much in the way discretionary funds for me. So I would be getting pushed towards, but not totally into, extreme retirement.
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Old 06-09-2017, 06:14 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort View Post
I don't think it is that easy to qualify for all those programs since there is a huge homeless problem in our area. One non-profit just pledged $100M to help homelessness in San Francisco and that is only supposed to cut the homeless population in half over the next 5 years.
The problem with that, like a lot of those types of programs, is how they are managed. If not managed by "incentive to improve oneself", then the population will find out about the $100MM, and grow, and your cut in half projection will go away. Sad, unfortunate truth.
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Old 06-09-2017, 06:15 AM   #65
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I am surprised by the growth of the poll in the "plan SS...25% haircut" category, but glad I am not alone.
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Old 06-09-2017, 06:21 AM   #66
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Of course its critical - its my money. No different than any other portion of my portfolio.
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Old 06-09-2017, 07:23 AM   #67
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I plan to get it at a 75% of current calculations rate. If I didn't get it at all it would likely* cause a significant decrease in lifestyle due to eliminating a decent amount of my planned discretionary spending money.

*likely as in "for the bad case sequence of returns from FIRE until SS age, growth would be small enough to need SS to cover my current plans" - but for "average" sequence of returns portfolio growth would likely result in having more than I need to maintain or improve my current lifestyle without any SS at all.
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Old 06-09-2017, 09:08 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
I think we could live without it. If I go into our retirement plan in QLP and change SS to zero, we run out of money at age 94 leaving all other assumptions the same. However, I would reasonably expect spending to decline in our late 70s and 80s and there is plenty of leeway in our annual expenses to belt tighten if needed. Also, my plan does not reflect any inheritance and realistically it will be low six-figures or more
I did likewise and the portfolio went from increasing throughout retirement to shrinking, but still should be able to live comfortably. I may have to cut back on the charitable giving. This was a good exercise in seeing how lack of SS could impact my financial future. It gets complicated when you are using QCDs to minimize taxes. I would have to do a lot of work in my detailed spreadsheet to really understand this and that is more work than I want to do at this point for a highly unlikely "what-if".
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Old 06-09-2017, 09:19 AM   #69
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I could live without SS, but would have a tighter budget. Plan to get SS in 2 1/2 years.
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Old 06-09-2017, 09:20 AM   #70
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If I take SS at 63, it would be around 23% of our income. Reducing it by 25% would still have our income covering our expenses. So we could live with a cut. Without it would require our SWR to be just above 3% to match our planned expenditures, so we could probably manage but would definitely have to revisit our expenses.
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Old 06-09-2017, 09:43 AM   #71
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CPP ( Canadian equivalent to SS) is well funded and certain to remain viable for the rest of my life. It isn't as generous as SS, maybe only half as much. I have deferred it to age 70 but it will not be material to my other income or spending levels.
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Old 06-09-2017, 10:15 AM   #72
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As someone who spends a lot of time here, I was somewhat concerned that I considered SS an important part of my overall retirement plan as it seems everyone has a multi-million dollar nest egg. Seeing the voting results helps me to feel more comfortable with whatever risk might exist around the availability of SS whether it be the full or a reduced amount. I appreciate everyone's participation and honest comments. Very helpful.
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Old 06-09-2017, 10:32 AM   #73
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No. I paid into it, but in the ultimate Ponzi scheme, funds were immediately paid to beneficiaries. There is no " lockbox". It's just another tax, and a regressive one at that.
Actually, not a Ponzi scheme. I found this to be an enlightening read.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...=.967da1a99cd6
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Old 06-09-2017, 10:39 AM   #74
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While our pension/ss mix will eventually be something like 66%/33% our initial plan involves saving back and investing part of the pension and all of the SS. Only when we have built a decent separate nest egg will we spend more. So SS is key to our future investments, but not budget. Without the investing part I would be concerned about inflation and ending up strapped for cash in our later years.
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Old 06-09-2017, 10:42 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort View Post
I tried to help a very low income young adult who wasn't getting consistent family financial support and didn't find too many support programs she could qualify for to help keep her out of homelessness. No drug addictions, no mental illness just no high paying job skills in a high cost of housing area. Twenty percent of foster kids who turn 18 end up homeless in California.
If she had a baby while unmarried, that would open a lot of doors for her.
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Old 06-09-2017, 10:50 AM   #76
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Michael Kitces puts the average “lump sum” value of Social Security at about $280,000 for males and $335,000 for females and for those who maxed out the SS wage base at about $572,000 for men and $683,000 for women:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/valuing-...balance-sheet/

So there's a big difference in planning purposes depending on expected benefits and whether there are one or two recipients in a household.
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Old 06-09-2017, 11:10 AM   #77
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CPP ( Canadian equivalent to SS) is well funded and certain to remain viable for the rest of my life. It isn't as generous as SS, maybe only half as much. I have deferred it to age 70 but it will not be material to my other income or spending levels.
I think that there are many here in the US would happily trade part of their SS income for the Canadian $$ guarantees in healthcare costs. Sister-in law is a landed Canadian immigrant, with serious health problems that would have cost millions here in the US. Did not have to spend down to qualify, so their nest egg and estate is intact.

BTW... though I know that Canadian healthcare quality is a controversial subject, BIL and SIL who live on PEI, have never complained. They have lived there since 1976.
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Old 06-09-2017, 11:26 AM   #78
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We would do OK without it. But the most likely scenario is SS at at greater than 65% of current full benefits.
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Old 06-09-2017, 11:31 AM   #79
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Maybe live in a "van by the river" in that free state park?

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i used to be a cop at the 155 street park where they played. i will definatley get the state park fee free too, ty
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Old 06-09-2017, 11:50 AM   #80
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I am planning on SS at it's present level. If not then I guess I'll have to tap the principal at some point. It's the next generation I'm really concerned about. They'll either have to pay more taxes to keep it afloat or receive a smaller inheritance.
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