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Old 05-06-2021, 09:38 AM   #261
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My point exactly. How sustainable is this? People not paying mortgages/rent and living for free?

When does this deadline end? June?
I assume this will only affect those in lower level housing as if you can buy a 700k house you probably arenít behind on mortgage.

Or if you are the lower refinance rates will make it easier to pay (lower payment).

So I donít see how this will impact the market much other than at the lower tier homesÖ.?
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:52 AM   #262
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Iíve been looking for a home in a couple of these desirable work from home spots in MCOL areas as part of my plan to escape HCOL and enjoy a better environment. Watching the prices skyrocketóin many cases beyond my numberóhas just been depressing.

This morning I took my name off the lists of a couple realtors. Guess Iíll be renting for awhile. And worse now I feel less confident about my plan :/
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:53 AM   #263
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Mortgage lenders are going to quietly get the bad loans off their books (one way or another) and get back to business as usual.

For small private landlords, is this not exactly the kind of risk you take on when you get in this business?
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Old 05-06-2021, 10:04 AM   #264
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Mortgage lenders are going to quietly get the bad loans off their books (one way or another) and get back to business as usual.

For small private landlords, is this not exactly the kind of risk you take on when you get in this business?
I suspect massive govt interference due to a worldwide pandemic is a black swan that wasnt factored into most small time landlords real estate risk assessments.
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Old 05-06-2021, 10:06 AM   #265
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Mortgage lenders are going to quietly get the bad loans off their books (one way or another) and get back to business as usual.

For small private landlords, is this not exactly the kind of risk you take on when you get in this business?
Re: small private landlords

Of course we consider risks. That why we screen well. Why we obtain insurance. Why we have funds available to cover vacancies and repairs. WHY WE KNOW IF WE HAVE A DEADBEAT or NON PAYOR THERE ARE LAWS AND A COURT SYSTEM IN PLACE to protect or rights and mitigate our risks.

Having our property taken, or rights stripped and being ordered to provide free public housing for upwards of a year with little to no recourse is not something that could ever be planned for or anticipated. That is not the kind of risk anyone would take.

How about the government demand you house a non family member at your expense and pay all the bills associated with housing them in your house without compensation or any recourse for a year? Because that is what has been done to many other homeowners. And so there will of course be consequences that will affect everyone in one way or another.
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Old 05-06-2021, 10:10 AM   #266
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When does this deadline end? June?
I assume this will only affect those in lower level housing as if you can buy a 700k house you probably arenít behind on mortgage.

Or if you are the lower refinance rates will make it easier to pay (lower payment).

So I donít see how this will impact the market much other than at the lower tier homesÖ.?

Well some homes that were $300K last year are up to $420K this year. Not sure if they are lower tier but middle class. Sure people can re-fi and lower their payments, but can you re-fi if you don't have a job or other collateral assets?


Unless they extend the forbearance (which they probably will) we may see more inventory in the coming months.
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Old 05-06-2021, 10:13 AM   #267
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Maybe we'll see more like these in the near future:


Long Island man dodges eviction for 20 years, living in house he doesn’t own




https://nypost.com/2021/05/01/ny-man...eclosed-house/
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Old 05-06-2021, 12:15 PM   #268
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I'm in the same position as Joylush. I bought four in 2010-2012 for $64 to $74k. I would list them for around $290k and expect multiple offers. I bought for the long term and the tax hit in capital gains and AMT would be horrendous. My tenants are all paying on time and most are long termers. Going to sit this bubble out.
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Old 05-06-2021, 12:27 PM   #269
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I'm in the same position as Joylush. I bought four in 2010-2012 for $64 to $74k. I would list them for around $290k and expect multiple offers. I bought for the long term and the tax hit in capital gains and AMT would be horrendous. My tenants are all paying on time and most are long termers. Going to sit this bubble out.
Yes, the tax hit is horrendous. It seems the profit on the third ends up all being spent to pay the taxes on the sale of every three of them. Iím trying to limit my sales to no more than three a year. But when I started selling I had 34 of them. Even at just three sales a year it was going to take me ten or eleven years to get rid of them.

But I felt it was best to take advantage of the strong sellers market and just pay the taxes. If taxes go up more or the market crashes I can just stop selling them if it no longer makes sense to do so. I will probably still end up dying with a dozen or so houses. That will be a little easier for my heirs to deal with.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:04 PM   #270
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My point exactly. How sustainable is this? People not paying mortgages/rent and living for free?
Renters protected by the eviction moratorium still have to pay back rents later.

How many will be able to do that?

Then, when they are finally evicted, they will not be able to rent again, like an earlier poster noted.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:35 PM   #271
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Renters protected by the eviction moratorium still have to pay back rents later.

How many will be able to do that?

Then, when they are finally evicted, they will not be able to rent again, like an earlier poster noted.

Right so when landlords who don't get paid and who can't pay the mortgage on their rental properties are forced to sell them what will happen?
Are we talking bubble when people refuse to pay mortgages and the banks can no longer bear the brunt? Even if Biden keeps extending the moratoriums something will eventually give and the deck of cards will collapse.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:49 PM   #272
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Right so when landlords who don't get paid and who can't pay the mortgage on their rental properties are forced to sell them what will happen?
Are we talking bubble when people refuse to pay mortgages and the banks can no longer bear the brunt? Even if Biden keeps extending the moratoriums something will eventually give and the deck of cards will collapse.
It will be a mess. An hour before the moratorium ends and and an hour after, the number of tenants and number of dwellings will be the same. A landlord who evicts is likely to have his potential replacement tenant pool nearly 100% people who have also been evicted. Now what?

Mortgages is another mess. Remember that banks are not the lenders, just the servicers. The actual lender/creditors are holders of the securitized loan packages, far removed from the front line payment issues and not well equipped to deal with delinquent mortgages on an individual basis.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:55 PM   #273
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Is it quite possible that the DC court ruling (yesterday) on the moratorium will result in it going away. An appeal was filed almost immediately, but I see it going away sooner than later.

DW (she is in the RE leasing world) just got off a telecon about the current goings on in several markets. One of the markets usually has about 6,000 properties for sale. As of this morning, it was less than 800. Any time a house hits the market (talking renters now) they have multiple applications and sounds like in some cases, there are now bidding wars on the rent price (as in applicants are offering MORE than this rent is listed). This is absolute craziness right now. I would NOT want to sell today if I didn't have someplace to go (as in already purchased).
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Old 05-06-2021, 04:18 PM   #274
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Redfin somehow got the idea that I want to live in Fremont, CA and occasionally sends me an e-mail with a new listing in that area - usually a dilapidated shack offered at $1.2M . This doesn't mean anything - I don't know anything about CA real estate (past or present), and probably never will.
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Old 05-06-2021, 05:08 PM   #275
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It will be a mess. An hour before the moratorium ends and and an hour after, the number of tenants and number of dwellings will be the same. A landlord who evicts is likely to have his potential replacement tenant pool nearly 100% people who have also been evicted. Now what?
Many landlords may decide to get out of the rental business, and to sell their properties.

I found out that one of the ex-neighbors was not the owner of the house he lived in, but a renter. He has been good on paying rent, but his landlord wanted the house back so he could take advantage of the hot market. The house sold after just a few days.
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Old 05-06-2021, 05:24 PM   #276
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Many landlords may decide to get out of the rental business, and to sell their properties. ...
Agreed. I would. In addition to this "free rent" phase, our city at least is telling landlords that that cannot screen for ex-offenders and is mooting the idea of rent control. I expect that small landlords in particular will be bailing at declining prices and that the buyers will be harvesting, not investing in the housing stock.

And the politicians will weep and wail that the affordable housing stock is declining and no one will step up to build more.
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Old 05-06-2021, 05:26 PM   #277
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Many landlords may decide to get out of the rental business, and to sell their properties.

I found out that one of the ex-neighbors was not the owner of the house he lived in, but a renter. He has been good on paying rent, but his landlord wanted the house back so he could take advantage of the hot market. The house sold after just a few days.
Thatís exactly where Iím at as a landlord. I have excellent tenants. Iíve been a landlord for 35 years. Iím not running any of them out at this time but I simply donít want to take any chances with any new unproven folks. Especially now that Iím spending six months a year out of state and now knowing the government can force me to house people who donít pay for free for months on end. Itís no longer worth the risks.

That being said, I had a vacancy last year that I was going to sell. A former tenant who had rented this same house from me in 2012 begged me to rent it them again. They promised to buy it by the end of last year. So I agreed. In the end they decided not to buy but to move to a larger house since they now both worked from home. So I told them theyíd need to move and gave them several months to find a place.

I didnít feel bad in this case because I intended to sell it last year. I offered to sell it to them for 235k. They moved out last Thursday (Iím out of town). It was listed on Friday. I received 15 offers over the weekend and settled for the cash offer, close in two weeks for 355K. I am so glad they felt it wasnít large enough for them. And because they were excellent tenants they left it in mint condition making it easy to sell.
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Old 05-06-2021, 05:26 PM   #278
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Many landlords may decide to get out of the rental business, and to sell their properties.

I found out that one of the ex-neighbors was not the owner of the house he lived in, but a renter. He has been good on paying rent, but his landlord wanted the house back so he could take advantage of the hot market. The house sold after just a few days.
Put a house up for rent last month, probably not too far from you. We did some updating and repairs, and raised the rent substantially. Had a ton of showings and requests for applications the first two days so we took it off the market. Third application qualified and moved in early, as they were losing their rental because it was being sold.
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Old 05-06-2021, 08:40 PM   #279
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They've been a numerous amount of R.E. Boom/Busts in my lifetime in a major USA state capital. Near 4+, in 50yrs.
Anyone researching last 100yrs RE booms&busts will find many& much to consider.

Good luck & Best wishes....
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:09 PM   #280
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It will be a mess. An hour before the moratorium ends and and an hour after, the number of tenants and number of dwellings will be the same. A landlord who evicts is likely to have his potential replacement tenant pool nearly 100% people who have also been evicted. Now what?

Mortgages is another mess. Remember that banks are not the lenders, just the servicers. The actual lender/creditors are holders of the securitized loan packages, far removed from the front line payment issues and not well equipped to deal with delinquent mortgages on an individual basis.
I have no trouble finding tenants that have not been evicted. The rental market where I invest has a surplus of potential tenants, as do the majority of rental markets across the country. The end of the eviction ban will only increase demand overall. Class C neighborhoods and properties may have some temporary issues, but equilibrium will return. Former foreclosed owners from 2009-2012 became homeowners again, and tenants will be "rehabilitated" over time.

WRT mortgages, Fannie and Freddie hold much of the paper. I don't think we will see many foreclosures. Most people will go back to work if they haven't already. There will be loan workouts. Properties can and will be sold at good prices. No harm, no foul.
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