Real Estate Bubble?

[OldShooter]

Many landlords may decide to get out of the rental business, and to sell their properties. ...

Agreed. I would. In addition to this "free rent" phase, our city at least is telling landlords that that cannot screen for ex-offenders and is mooting the idea of rent control. I expect that small landlords in particular will be bailing at declining prices and that the buyers will be harvesting, not investing in the housing stock.

And the politicians will weep and wail that the affordable housing stock is declining and no one will step up to build more.

 

[Joylush]

Many landlords may decide to get out of the rental business, and to sell their properties.

I found out that one of the ex-neighbors was not the owner of the house he lived in, but a renter. He has been good on paying rent, but his landlord wanted the house back so he could take advantage of the hot market. The house sold after just a few days.

That’s exactly where I’m at as a landlord. I have excellent tenants. I’ve been a landlord for 35 years. I’m not running any of them out at this time but I simply don’t want to take any chances with any new unproven folks. Especially now that I’m spending six months a year out of state and now knowing the government can force me to house people who don’t pay for free for months on end. It’s no longer worth the risks.

That being said, I had a vacancy last year that I was going to sell. A former tenant who had rented this same house from me in 2012 begged me to rent it them again. They promised to buy it by the end of last year. So I agreed. In the end they decided not to buy but to move to a larger house since they now both worked from home. So I told them they’d need to move and gave them several months to find a place.

I didn’t feel bad in this case because I intended to sell it last year. I offered to sell it to them for 235k. They moved out last Thursday (I’m out of town). It was listed on Friday. I received 15 offers over the weekend and settled for the cash offer, close in two weeks for 355K. I am so glad they felt it wasn’t large enough for them. And because they were excellent tenants they left it in mint condition making it easy to sell.

 

[Another Reader]

Many landlords may decide to get out of the rental business, and to sell their properties.

I found out that one of the ex-neighbors was not the owner of the house he lived in, but a renter. He has been good on paying rent, but his landlord wanted the house back so he could take advantage of the hot market. The house sold after just a few days.

Put a house up for rent last month, probably not too far from you. We did some updating and repairs, and raised the rent substantially. Had a ton of showings and requests for applications the first two days so we took it off the market. Third application qualified and moved in early, as they were losing their rental because it was being sold.

 

[bolt]

They've been a numerous amount of R.E. Boom/Busts in my lifetime in a major USA state capital. Near 4+, in 50yrs.
Anyone researching last 100yrs RE booms&busts will find many& much to consider.

Good luck & Best wishes....

 

[Another Reader]

It will be a mess. An hour before the moratorium ends and and an hour after, the number of tenants and number of dwellings will be the same. A landlord who evicts is likely to have his potential replacement tenant pool nearly 100% people who have also been evicted. Now what?

Mortgages is another mess. Remember that banks are not the lenders, just the servicers. The actual lender/creditors are holders of the securitized loan packages, far removed from the front line payment issues and not well equipped to deal with delinquent mortgages on an individual basis.

I have no trouble finding tenants that have not been evicted. The rental market where I invest has a surplus of potential tenants, as do the majority of rental markets across the country. The end of the eviction ban will only increase demand overall. Class C neighborhoods and properties may have some temporary issues, but equilibrium will return. Former foreclosed owners from 2009-2012 became homeowners again, and tenants will be "rehabilitated" over time.

WRT mortgages, Fannie and Freddie hold much of the paper. I don't think we will see many foreclosures. Most people will go back to work if they haven't already. There will be loan workouts. Properties can and will be sold at good prices. No harm, no foul.

 

[FlaGator]

.........

When won't it end well? What will be the reason it doesn't end well? What is "it"?

You, and maybe others, have asked essentially these same questions more than once in this thread. Seems like the answers have been "seen prices spike similar to this over the decades and this won't end well" and "due to factors that haven't existed in decades, the wind is at our back for years to come".

So, if you're looking for validation of your view that residential RE prices can/will continue to go up for years to come, you either found it at this point, or you won't. Make your bet and live with it.

 

[chassis]

You, and maybe others, have asked essentially these same questions more than once in this thread. Seems like the answers have been "seen prices spike similar to this over the decades and this won't end well" and "due to factors that haven't existed in decades, the wind is at our back for years to come".

So, if you're looking for validation of your view that residential RE prices can/will continue to go up for years to come, you either found it at this point, or you won't. Make your bet and live with it.

Thanks @FlaGator . Not a direct answer to the question, and I appreciate the time and energy you expended to write the post.

 

[tryan]

Is it quite possible that the DC court ruling (yesterday) on the moratorium will result in it going away.

Local communities (state/county/city) can still do what they want regarding an eviction .... the problem is local politicians play to the masses. And free rent gets more votes than it doesn't.

 

[tryan]

... i'ld be more concerned with local LLs going "old school". Removing front doors "for repair" ... shutting off water/electric/gas. Getting their property back and moving on with thier business. Courts are closed and a severe back log would delay any consequences. One could close a sale long before a tenant-LL "dispute" ever made it to court.

 

[Joylush]

... i'ld be more concerned with local LLs going "old school". Removing front doors "for repair" ... shutting off water/electric/gas. Getting their property back and moving on with thier business. Courts are closed and a severe back log would delay any consequences. One could close a sale long before a tenant-LL "dispute" ever made it to court.

I wouldn’t have gone that far. But I certainly wouldn’t be replacing a failed AC unit in a property with a long term non-paying tenant. I’d take my chances in court.

The way I read the law if the landlord fails to make repairs the tenant has the option to move without penalty (please do) or they may be awarded up to two months rent in compensation. Well if they owe me rent in the first place who cares if I owe them two months rent.

Because seriously telling a landlord they can’t evict someone who hasn’t paid in months that they still have to fix their air conditioner or replace their refrigerator is just insane.

 

[jkern]

I wouldn’t have gone that far. But I certainly wouldn’t be replacing a failed AC unit in a property with a long term non-paying tenant. I’d take my chances in court.

The way I read the law if the landlord fails to make repairs the tenant has the option to move without penalty (please do) or they may be awarded up to two months rent in compensation. Well if they owe me rent in the first place who cares if I owe them two months rent.

Because seriously telling a landlord they can’t evict someone who hasn’t paid in months that they still have to fix their air conditioner or replace their refrigerator is just insane.

I think I would sabotage the AC unit. Not break it, but maybe remove the capacitor or disconnect it.

 

[jkern]

Renters protected by the eviction moratorium still have to pay back rents later.

How many will be able to do that?

Then, when they are finally evicted, they will not be able to rent again, like an earlier poster noted.

I'm guessing not many Landlords will invest $5K, $10K or more in legal fees chasing deadbeat tenants. I think most of them will get away without paying anything. Here in CA any back rent owed cannot be used to evict a tenant (after the eviction ban ends).

 

[jkern]

Many landlords may decide to get out of the rental business, and to sell their properties.

I found out that one of the ex-neighbors was not the owner of the house he lived in, but a renter. He has been good on paying rent, but his landlord wanted the house back so he could take advantage of the hot market. The house sold after just a few days.

I have been seeing many Landlords selling their rentals and getting out of the Landlord business. I think it's a combination of higher prices and tenants having the freedom not to pay rent.

 

[Letj]

Well if you have a house to sell at top dollar you can buy another one at top dollar, even if downsizing. The ones it hurts the most are first time buyers and renters. I believe one of the contributing factors is the poorly thought out illegal eviction moratorium is a contributing factor.



I am fortunate to have a lot of homes to sell. For those I might keep I can no longer keep them at rents so far below current market value because the costs of everything has greatly increased (taxes, insurance, and all labor and materials cost for maintenance). So I plan to get out while the getting out is good. Having the government take away my rights to my property for over a year was just too much. And now my very good tenants will all be affected one way or the other. Then again the government never considers long term consequences. It absolutely pains me.

I could have written every word and your last paragraph just about nails what landlords are facing. I sold 10 as they became vacant and have several that are rented really low and property tax and building materials are through the roof. I can’t sell them as quickly as I want, even if some are not paying, because of the eviction moratorium. It’s wrong and it’s unfair. I shouldn’t be forced, as a private individual, to be responsible for someone’s welfare at the expense of my business. It’s also a catch 22. You want to sell but have to consider the large tax implication especially if you bought low and held for a long time.

 

[Letj]

Mortgage lenders are going to quietly get the bad loans off their books (one way or another) and get back to business as usual.

For small private landlords, is this not exactly the kind of risk you take on when you get in this business?

I don’t think so. No one could have foreseen that landlords would’ve been forced to provide free housing. Arguably that’s the government’s job. As for the rent relief program, the tenant has to provide income information and if they don’t cooperate, there isn’t anything a landlord can do. The application process for rent relief is a hassle I don’t want to deal with.

 

[pb4uski]

I sent you a direct response.

Care to share your thoughts with the rest of us?

 

[LRDave]

I think I would sabotage the AC unit. Not break it, but maybe remove the capacitor or disconnect it.

Nice......

 

[RAE]

I have been seeing many Landlords selling their rentals and getting out of the Landlord business. I think it's a combination of higher prices and tenants having the freedom not to pay rent.

+1, I have seen the same thing in west-central Florida, where we own a house. Some of the homes going on the market right now are not in very good shape, either (to put it mildly), yet they are listing them for crazy prices. Guess they want to see if someone will actually pay that for a house that needs a ton of work (and some people just might, we'll see).

 

[bld999]

I don’t think so. No one could have foreseen that landlords would’ve been forced to provide free housing. Arguably that’s the government’s job. As for the rent relief program, the tenant has to provide income information and if they don’t cooperate, there isn’t anything a landlord can do. The application process for rent relief is a hassle I don’t want to deal with.

In my view, the moratorium playing out without an attendant cure is simply a taking.
If society benefits from helping tenants in dire straits keep their housing, then we should all pay part of the bill, not just landlords.


I have sold two single family homes that were rented, and soon have another to go. No impairment here, I'm whole on rent, but at 70yo, I was planning to be done soon anyway, so this little push helped.
Single fam. homes are gold at the moment, i'm timing the market shamelessly.

 

[Another Reader]

In my view, the moratorium playing out without an attendant cure is simply a taking.
If society benefits from helping tenants in dire straits keep their housing, then we should all pay part of the bill, not just landlords.


I have sold two single family homes that were rented, and soon have another to go. No impairment here, I'm whole on rent, but at 70yo, I was planning to be done soon anyway, so this little push helped.
Single fam. homes are gold at the moment, i'm timing the market shamelessly.

Market timing is incredibly easy in real estate...nothing shameful about it. Wish I could have loaded up more in 2009-2012.

 

[Karloff]

I am just going to chime in with our own personal experience buying a new construction home in the SE Florida area. The below relates to the exact same home model (a 2800 sq/f 4/2.5 that is certainly a very nice house, but nothing out of the ordinary).

In all cases, the prices do *not* include the lot premium nor any options (and, trust me, you do need most of the options if you want things like decent paint and doors). The lots are usually $30K and up. Many are $60K and one just sold for $199K! (again, this was *only* for the lot!)

2019: development of the community begins, and homes start on average around $440K.

February 2020: price of the model we like is $460K. We request an estimate for what would be our own build. Our final, out-the-door price with a lot and options was about $525K. We almost bought then, but Covid was beginning to worry everybody and we decided to wait. Big mistake.

December 2020: The same exact home model now starts at $509 (plus lot, plus options).

January 2021: It now costs $536k. We decide to buy. Our final price with the *by far* cheapest lot we could find (which was "only" $18K) and options (and after a temporary promo where they give you cash back on the options) ends up being $612K. I was mortified. To me, this number was simply obscene and completely unjustifiable for a nice but not spectacular 2800 sq/f home, but for circumstances that are too long and complex to explain here, we had to move, so our options were limited. We put our deposit down.

February 2021 (1st week): It now starts at $556K.

February 2021 (2nd week): It now starts at $563K.

February 2021 (3rd week): It now starts at $576K.

March 2021 (first half): It now starts at $580K.

March 2021 (second half): It now starts at $590K.

April 2021 (first half): $593K.

April 2021 (second half): $603K.

May 2021 (first week): $613K.

Today (May 8th, 2021): $621K.

So, we bought in January for an out-the-door price of $612K (includes lot and options). The same exact home, only about 3 and half months later, would have cost us close to $750K instead ($621K + $60K lot + options). That is over $100K in less than 4 months.

10 miles from this development, the same builder is selling *smaller* houses starting at $750K and with lots in the $150K range, which means that a 3/2.5 can end up costing you $900K.

A bubble? Or not? Come to your own conclusions. I know what I think.

EDIT: Just 1 county up north, the same builder is now selling *only* through a "this-is-just-the-base-price-now-make-your-offer" system, which was unheard of for new construction and encourages the "fighting" over starting prices we are all reading about everywhere, forcing an already-inflated price to literally balloon out of the realm of any common sense.

 

[Fermion]

Karloff, it is a bubble but it is not just real estate. Everyone is getting slow boiled by inflation and doesn't even realize it because the official word is that there is no inflation.

 

[LRDave]

^^^^^ How much is inflation as opposed to a "bubble"?^^^^^

 

[Karloff]

Karloff, it is a bubble but it is not just real estate. Everyone is getting slow boiled by inflation and doesn't even realize it because the official word is that there is no inflation.

I agree. And have a lot of personal experience with *hyper*inflation, which is what really scares me.

I hope we made the right choice by buying this place. I should be happy with the fact that, at least on paper, our home went up about $100K in less than 4 months, but I am not. This is out of control. And what about property taxes? That is what most are not even mentioning. 2% on a 900K 3/2 home. Insane. We will be paying a fortune to live in this house, even without a mortgage.

 

[RAE]

Karloff, it is a bubble but it is not just real estate. Everyone is getting slow boiled by inflation and doesn't even realize it because the official word is that there is no inflation.

Maybe, but I have not noticed for other things (food, gas, electronics, etc, etc) going up very much lately.............certainly NOTHING like lumber and labor costs for construction. I am very happy that we bought our second home a couple years ago, and we've had our primary home for many years now. Both are in decent shape, so I don't anticipate needing any major renovations in the near future either (thankfully).