Simple Timing system

[utrecht]

What exactly would you buy to go long the DOW?
ETF, mutual fund?

What symbol?

DIA

 

[Running_Man]

This has been very amusing to watch the line in the sand RockOn drew as being the focal point of the stock market to perform a Hula-Hoop around as the market gyrated in aimless fashion.

Based on the recent collapse in commodities, the negative sales of automobiles, potash stocks completely falling away and the crashing of the BDI shipping index I am expecting there will not be a repurchase now on the way back up for quite some time as the credit crunch appears to be having an effect on the real world.

 

[Zathras]

Well, right now it appears there will be a sale based on the 11,400 mark (unless the market rallies before the end of the day).
However, I certainly won't be betting on your prediction I'll just keep investing a little bit at a time and hopefully get some good sales

 

[Zathras]

Ouch, repurchasing when the market crests over 11400 again will be almost a 2% loss.
Now granted, I would guess this has been a really good example of how bad whipsaws can get.

 

[FIRE'd@51]

Last purchase on 8/27: DJIA = 11,502.51

Sale Today (9/4): DJIA = 11,188.23

Whipsaw cost = 2.73%

Total Whipsaw Cost to date = 7.9%

Whatever happened to OP anyway?

 

[Zathras]

Whatever happened to OP anyway?

He no longer has funds for internet access

 

[FIRE'd@51]

Here we go again! Buy back in at 11,510.74. Just "sat out" a 2.9% rally from the last sell.

 

[Zathras]

In the short term, you would make pretty good money doing the exact opposite. Buy when it drops below 11400, sell when it goes over

 

[REWahoo]

Whatever happened to OP anyway?

My guess is RockOn is now RockOff.

 

[Zathras]

Well, time to lock in another 2.5% loss.

 

[FIRE'd@51]

Well, time to lock in another 2.5% loss.

Yep, whipsaws coming fast and furious now.

In the short term, you would make pretty good money doing the exact opposite. Buy when it drops below 11400, sell when it goes over

If you had done what you are suggesting, and bought a 3-month at-the-money straddle at the outset to hedge against a big breakout move up or down, you would now own a free 39-day at-the-money straddle.

 

[ERD50]

Whatever happened to OP anyway?

MIA since 07-27-2008, 11:31 AM

Crystal Ball says if the DOW takes a 30% dive from here, he'll be back


-ERD50

 

[Hamlet]

This system is starting to look a little better lately.

 

[FIRE'd@51]

This system is starting to look a little better lately.

Yes, it is, but the total whipsaw cost is now at 15%. Back in July, when this was started, a 3-month put struck at 11,400 would have cost under 5%.