So thrilled with the market right now!

[W2R]

(No, this is not an April Fool's Day joke....)

The Dow may not be at a record high today, but at 26,258 it's getting downright stratospheric.

My investment portfolio has hit an all time high once again today, despite being very conservatively invested, despite being retired and not in accumulation phase, and despite buying my wonderful Dream Home in the summer of 2015. I know that the stock market is a roller coaster, but still, I sure never expected the market to stay so strong for the past ten years.

As you may notice, I did not utter the dreaded "W" word in this post (as I did back in 2007), so maybe this time it will keep going up, and up, and up! How's your portfolio doing?

 

[marko]

Yes. Up 11% YTD.
I assign a 6% return expectation for each year and then track where -- what date-- I'd be based upon each week's balance. Tells me if I'm ahead or behind plan and by how much.

Right now "It is" August 23, 2020! I'm a year and a half ahead of where I should be; a long way from it being "October 2016" just three months ago.

Next scene.

 

[Lsbcal]

Over the last 12 months the market is up 10.7%. So about average historically.

Maybe more to go? Here is hoping.

 

[marko]

Over the last 12 months the market is up 10.7%. So about average historically.

Maybe more to go? Here is hoping.

The way I look at it is that 2018 was artificially flat, so we needed a robust year year to compensate and keep the average going. I like tracking 3 year averages for that reason.

 

[COcheesehead]

Uh oh.

 

[Lsbcal]

The way I look at it is that 2018 was artificially flat, so we needed a robust year year to compensate and keep the average going. I like tracking 3 year averages for that reason.

The 3 year average is about 13.7% which is a bit high historically. For 5 years we are at about +11.0%.

These numbers don't scream wildly overbought or oversold.

 

[audreyh1]

I knew it! I just knew it sounded like W2R partying!!!

 

[W2R]

I knew it! I just knew it sounded like W2R partying!!!

Yep!! I'm happy tonight.

 

[Another Reader]

Would someone please shut her up!

Real estate in one of my rental markets has gone nuts. Who would have ever thought that houses in Tempe or Gilbert, AZ would sell for over $1MM? I may have to sell a couple of my more typical rentals and pay hefty capital gains taxes to protect my "winnings."

 

[street]

Wow, the average was a lot higher then I would of thought. I just never checked what it would of been but surprising that high.
I have never used more then a 2% gain in any of my projection to see where I might be in gains and how I should spend.
What percent would be a fair number to use in projection of gain in a portfolio?

 

[MarieIG]

Well, in spite of a lousy 401k, very high cost of living, loads of taxes, and arguably being one of the worst investors on the planet, I don't seem to be broke.

 

[SecondCor521]

the dreaded "W" word

 

[robnplunder]

(No, this is not an April Fool's Day joke....)

The Dow may not be at a record high today, but at 26,258 it's getting downright stratospheric.

My investment portfolio has hit an all time high once again today, despite being very conservatively invested, despite being retired and not in accumulation phase, and despite buying my wonderful Dream Home in the summer of 2015. I know that the stock market is a roller coaster, but still, I sure never expected the market to stay so strong for the past ten years.

As you may notice, I did not utter the dreaded "W" word in this post (as I did back in 2007), so maybe this time it will keep going up, and up, and up! How's your portfolio doing?

I noticed the photo clearly shows the roller coaster is on its way down.

 

[beowulf]

Irrational exuberance

 

[W2R]

Irrational exuberance

 

[robnplunder]

 

[Dtail]

Loving the market too, but still 2.5% off all time high.

 

[Maenad]

As of yesterday I'm 93% to FI. Not that I'm counting or anything.

We're forecast to hit FI this fall, RE next year, so I'm hoping it doesn't crash soon. Of course, there's always someone with unlucky timing, and if it's me, it's beyond my control and not worth stressing about.

I'll keep telling myself that and maybe it'll sink in to my amygdala.

 

[joeea]

As you may notice, I did not utter the dreaded "W" word in this post (as I did back in 2007), so maybe this time it will keep going up, and up, and up!

Maybe it will keep going up forever.

How's your portfolio doing?

I hadn't checked in quite a while, so your post prompted me to check.

I'd say it's going rather well.

 

[Dawg52]

Well there it is.....sell sell sell!

 

[joeea]

The way I look at it is that 2018 was artificially flat

Interesting term. Can you expand on why you wrote "artificially"?

 

[Amethyst]

It is not the word, but the openly expressed sentiment, that upsets the Fates.

(No, this is not an April Fool's Day joke....)

T
As you may notice, I did not utter the dreaded "W" word in this post (as I did back in 2007), so maybe this time it will keep going up, and up, and up! How's your portfolio doing?

 

[foxfirev5]

If the market holds up today I'm taking a little sliver off the table. Some indicators can not be ignored.

 

[marko]

Interesting term. Can you expand on why you wrote "artificially"?

Just the way I look at it. What I mean is that the year/economy/market was going along quite well until October. Then the Fed made statements and the market tumbled, in my view, needlessly. I don't see the Oct/Dec drop as a real reflection of the market's/economy's health or potential, just an artificial downdraft caused by some poorly timed statements.

Had the Fed made those comments in April of '18 we'd have had time to recover, as evidenced by our current surge/compensation.

Again, YMMV. Just my personal perspective.

 

[markelp]

*THIS* time is different! /s

Steady as she goes for us. We used some of the gains to pay off our mortgage ahead of schedule as the changes to tax benefits from the mortgage interest deduction don't outweigh the costs anymore. And we take living expenses out when needed while using that opportunity to rebalance allocation.