Stock Market Woes

[Danny]

CFB - I think you were pulling my leg about getting back into the market, right?
I'm still mostly in cds, KMI, TGT, and a couple other long term holds.
Anything starting to look attractive?

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I didnt say which "yesterday" I meant, now...did I?

For what its worth, I still havent bought anything. Barring a big drop, i'm looking at somewhere right after the fourth of july to do some buying.

 

[Nords]

Anything starting to look attractive?

Intel is looking better & better... for July...

 

[unclemick]

The old market saw: Sell in May and go away.

Now when to get back in - there's the rub - opinions seem to vary. October?

Heck - I haven't a clue - usually the(mine) male hormones start to kick in the end of August early fall - aka football season.

Stocks and football - logical - Right?

heh heh heh heh heh

 

[brewer12345]

Dunno exactly where the bottom will be. Yesterday would be nice, but who knows. I think we will see more Fed rate increases until it is clear they have overshot. Then we will have a (hopefully brief, shallow) recession and the Fed will chop rates. I wish it were otherwise, but I can't see any other way for Helicopter Ben to make his bones as a credible inflation fighter.

 

[laurence]

So at this point, aren't we bouncing around the 200 day moving average? Market climbs a bit and gives it all back. Still o.k. by me, I'm just DCA'ing every week.

 

[lazyday]

Hulbert

, I found that the stock market's probabilities of rising between June 1 and Aug. 31 actually go up when May is a down month.
Consider first those years in which May produced as big or bigger loss as it has so far this year. Since the mid 1890s, when the DJIA was created, a total of 26 years qualify. The DJIA's average summer gain during those 26 years was 6.3%.
Contrast that with the summer gains during years in which the DJIA in May did better than it has in 2006. The average three-month gain during those summers was 2.5%.
This difference turns out to be significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use.

Maybe someone can do some more data mining, and figure out the exact date to get back in the market, when May was as bad as it was this year.
(My guess is you'd find June 1 to be the date, and then need to do some more mining to get a better answer!)



Next line of article:

To be sure, a pattern can have statistical significance and still not have that much investment significance.

 

[brewer12345]

So at this point, aren't we bouncing around the 200 day moving average?  Market climbs a bit and gives it all back.  Still o.k. by me, I'm just DCA'ing every week.

Yeah, I think that's sensible.  Its not like this is any big, cataclysmic event.  Just another buying opportunity.  Let's just hope that the bird flu and the Iranians stay reasonably quiescent and everything will be hunky-dory.

 

[Danny]

Hulbert
Maybe someone can do some more data mining, and figure out the exact date to get back in the market, when May was as bad as it was this year.
(My guess is you'd find June 1 to be the date, and then need to do some more mining to get a better answer!)

I guess after Oct 19
And get in before the midterm elections when the Dems take back the House & Senate and start impeachment proceedings.

 

[lazyday]

impeachment proceedings

So, by "get in" do you mean "short Halliburton?"

 

[Martha]

Martha, isn't that the oily grey stuff that smells bad?  When I lived in Chicago, I bought some and had to throw it away.  You should try some Chinook some time.

Ed

Hey Ed, I missed this post. No, it is not oily grey stuff. It is beautiful, tender and pink to red. I like it better than the smoked Chinook I have had from the northwest. Maybe just because it is fresher. We buy it from a commercial fisherman just up the shore. Also like the local smoked herring. Some the the trout is good but it often is too fatty for my taste.

 

[Danny]

So, by "get in" do you mean "short Halliburton?"

 

[Sheryl]

I started moving some excess cash into a few areas that needed higher allocations this weekend. Just a gut feeling that it's a decent buying opportunity.

 

[HFWR]

As a contraindicator...

Bought 400 VWO, 300 VBR, and 100 TIP today...

 

[Danny]

Bought TIP too.
Best of luck!

 

[kessef]

As a contraindicator... 

Bought 400 VWO, 300 VBR, and 100 TIP today...

i've been looking at vwo and eem. any pros/cons between them or are you just a vanguard fan? (i am)

 

[HFWR]

As for timing, I'd sold some other stuff that was either bubbly or higher fees.

 

[kathyet]

http://www.vanguard.com/international/hAmeEN/research/marketcurrents1Q2006EN.htm

i've been looking at vwo and eem. any pros/cons between them or are you just a vanguard fan? (i am) quote]

Maybe this will help some
kathyet

 

[laurence]

So Bernake throws a one-two punch:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13151199/

And the markets tumble. Since it's now obvious he's going to continue raising rates, can the market do better than trade flat until he signals "All clear"?

 

[d]

yet another nasty day on Wall St.

 

[HFWR]

As a contraindicator... 

Bought 400 VWO, 300 VBR, and 100 TIP today...

i've been looking at vwo and eem. any pros/cons between them or are you just a vanguard fan? (i am)

Fan of low expenses... 8)

 

[laurence]

Dow below 11k now, I'm starting to think a buying opportunity is just around the corner!

 

[brewer12345]

Dow below 11k now, I'm starting to think a buying opportunity is just around the corner!

I think the market is fishing around for a low, but no telling if it is here or lower. But I see an ominous sign: the 2-10 year treasury curve is now only 1 BP apart. Inversion is a hair's breadth away. Suggests we may be in for a recession next year.

 

[NinjaPigeon]

Yah, even though I got hit hard on the funds I bought on 5/12, I picked up another bundle of shares in NAESX, VFINX, and VIMSX on sale this week I hope it doesn't keep dropping though, as I have no spare cash to buy more!

 

[mb]

Brewer,

Help me understand the present thinking on the inverted yield curve.

I understand that an inverted yield typically indicates a recession but my understanding is that the hand-waving argument for why that happens is that the "smart money" realizes in advance that the economy is going to slow down and that they therefore go long on bonds so that they can capture the maximum capital gains when interest rates decline further.

So the inverted yield curve indicator is really a symptom of the forces that cause the slow down not a cause of the slowdown in and of itself.

However a big reason why the present yield on long bonds is low is because the Chinese and Japanese are buying them and they are doing this because they need to recycle their export profits somewhere not necessarily because they think long rates will go down.

So it seems to me that the forces that are driving the yield curve toward inversion are different this time (yeh, yeh I know that has been said before) and that therefore it may not be as good of an indicator of a slowing economy as it has been in the past?

Your thoughts?

MB