Stop telling me the market is up 170%

G

Gazingus

Recycles dryer sheets
Joined
Jan 1, 2008
Messages
126
Everywhere you turn, breathless reports are aging this bull market at five years and touting the total return based on the dead-cat-bounce after the mortgage investment debacle.

The recovery period has created some nice returns, but anybody that wasn't contributing money throughout had to wait until the Dow passed through about 14,000 to start seeing growth again.

Is a recovery a bull before it ever reaches a new high?
 
Dead-cat-bounce?

It reached a new high, didn't it? It has been a bull market in my definition. The question to me and what others are asking is if the bull run will continue.
 
robnplunder said:
Dead-cat-bounce?

It reached a new high, didn't it? It has been a bull market in my definition. The question to me and what others are asking is if the bull run will continue.
Click to expand...

This is what I am wondering, too.

I cashed in some of my portfolio recently, to begin collecting cash at this great high in the Dow. (I am doing this in anticipation of possibly moving in a few years, a topic discussed in another thread.) With my rotten luck I suppose the market will therefore continue soaring even more than it has. :rolleyes:

Buy, buy, buy. :(

Oh, and Gazingus, I would call it a five year bull market but then what do I know? Very little. If you want to call it a bull only since the Dow hit 14,000, then I think that is completely reasonable too. I also doubt anyone would argue with you, or with me... most are too busy counting their gains.
 
Last edited:
To me the short term swings up and down are interesting to observe but not as important to my strategy. I agree the reports of +170% or -50% are out of context with the long term view.

Over the longer term the market keeps going up about 10% on average per year. IMO the market is currently right about where it is supposed to be.
 
RetireAge50 said:
To me the short term swings up and down are interesting to observe but not as important to my strategy. I agree the reports of +170% or -50% are out of context with the long term view.

Over the longer term the market keeps going up about 10% on average per year. IMO the market is currently right about where it is supposed to be.
Click to expand...

Isn't the market is always right where it is supposed to be? I would just like to know where it is supposed to be next year, but that info is privy only to the gods.
 
Gazingus said:
Everywhere you turn, breathless reports are aging this bull market at five years and touting the total return based on the dead-cat-bounce after the mortgage investment debacle.

The recovery period has created some nice returns, but anybody that wasn't contributing money throughout had to wait until the Dow passed through about 14,000 to start seeing growth again.

Is a recovery a bull before it ever reaches a new high?
Click to expand...



But it has been a 5 year 'bull'.... from what I heard, it was 5 years ago yesterday when the market hit bottom.... you might not like the definition, but it is correct...

Corrections are measured from the top of the market until it reaches a bottom... then you start another bull.... eventually you will get another correction (or worse)....


As always in investing.... YMMV....
 
Funny, one of the investment newsletters I read was making the case that the current bull market started in 2011, not 2009. It is all a matter of definition.
 
bssc said:
Funny, one of the investment newsletters I read was making the case that the current bull market started in 2011, not 2009. It is all a matter of definition.
Click to expand...

Perhaps, it is trying to convince readers that the bull market can go longer. Not too many bull runs last past 5 years. Saying the current bull run is only in its 3rd year sounds like self serving for the investment community.
 
There was an interesting "Lessons learned from the Bull Market" article in the WSJ this weekend. It mentioned that the standard definition of a bull or bear is a 20% rise or fall in the market over a period of time. If you change that to just 19%, we endured a bear in 2011, and the bull is only 2 years old.

It's all noise. I anxiously await my next bargain buying opportunity!
 
nash031 said:
There was an interesting "Lessons learned from the Bull Market" article in the WSJ this weekend. It mentioned that the standard definition of a bull or bear is a 20% rise or fall in the market over a period of time. If you change that to just 19%, we endured a bear in 2011, and the bull is only 2 years old.

It's all noise. I anxiously await my next bargain buying opportunity!
Click to expand...

I see. I think someone is splitting hair on that one (3 year bull market claim). For all intents and purposes, the bull market run has been for 5 years and it is more than a dead-cat-bounce by any definition.

Personally, I am hoping we have 1 - 2 more years of the current run although we are overdue for a correction.
 
RetireAge50 said:
Over the longer term the market keeps going up about 10% on average per year. IMO the market is currently right about where it is supposed to be.
Click to expand...

Lets say I took a lump sum and deposited it in the market every birthday starting with my 18th. The annualzied S&P500 returns reinvesting dividends ( & adjusted for CPI) for each year's investment would be -

Feb95->Feb14 = 9.064% (6.598%)
Feb96->Feb14 = 7.645% (5.231%)
Feb97->Feb14 = 6.677% (4.328%)
Feb98->Feb14 = 5.345% (2.975%)
Feb99->Feb14 = 4.233% (1.842%)
Feb00->Feb14 = 3.649% (1.322%)
Feb01->Feb14 = 4.336% (2.099%)
Feb02->Feb14 = 6.086% (3.722%)
Feb03->Feb14 = 9.178% (6.812%)
Feb04->Feb14 = 6.581% (4.218%)
Feb05->Feb14 = 6.570% (4.290%)
Feb06->Feb14 = 6.355% (4.259%)
Feb07->Feb14 = 5.145% (3.131%)
Feb08->Feb14 = 6.843% (5.148%)
Feb09->Feb14 = 19.514% (17.298%)
Feb10->Feb14 = 15.149% (13.084%)
Feb11->Feb14 = 12.450% (10.535%)
Feb12->Feb14 = 16.692% (15.345%)
Feb13->Feb14 = 19.254% (18.823%)

Based on your 10% annual return statement and my window of reference, the bull market needs to go a lot further. These last two years have been great! If it weren't for them my retirement funds (adjusted for CPI) would be worth less than the initial contributions.
 
robnplunder said:
I see. I think someone is splitting hair on that one (3 year bull market claim). For all intents and purposes, the bull market run has been for 5 years and it is more than a dead-cat-bounce by any definition.

Personally, I am hoping we have 1 - 2 more years of the current run although we are overdue for a correction.
Click to expand...

Point is, we may have already endured one "correction" during the current "bull", and another one is coming. Could start tomorrow, could start in 2024. In any event, it's all noise. I don't intend to try to plan according to predictions, models, history, experts, etc., but that's just me.
 
CaliforniaMan said:
Isn't the market is always right where it is supposed to be? I would just like to know where it is supposed to be next year, but that info is privy only to the gods.
Click to expand...

Oh no folks know where it will be in the next year. I get spam all the time from folks that know where it will be in a year.:eek::) You just have to subscribe to their secret information.
MRG
 
robnplunder said:
Which years did you sample? I thought it was more like 6% - 7% over very long run. But I can live with either 6% or 10% gain. :)
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm used to seeing 7% for the long term. I plan long term to 6% for no particular reason other than it makes sense to me.
 
I used Schiller data over the last 30 years. Capital gain 7.5% + Dividends 2.5%.
 
I try to ignore such noise. Or at least put it in context. S&P 500 dropped 20% from Apr to Sept 2011. Many would describe that as a bear market. It was quite painful and downright scary that summer when the US was downgraded from triple A. Funny how nobody mentions that bear market period in these "5 year anniversary stories".
 
OK, "the market" is not the DJIA. "The market" to me is a Total US Stock Market index fund with dividends re-invested. By that definition, "the market" is up more than 200% instead of a mere 170%, so I will stop telling you that the market is up 170%, because it ain't.
 
The low on the S&P 500 was 666. A bull market is a 20% rise off the low so that puts the bull at 799 for the S&P 500. I think we are in a secular bull that started 3/9/2009. You can have cyclical bear markets within a secular bull and that's what I'd say the 19% drop was, why quibble over 1%. This may well be like the secular bull from 1982 to 2000 and if it is it'll run another 10 or 15 years. We will only know in hind sight.
 
A secular bull market, as veremchuka suspects, would be fantastic. Here's hoping *fingers crossed*.
 
Secular markets run in cycles, bulls last about 14-18 years and bears about 6-10 IIRC. Cyclical markets are a year or 2. We had an 18 year bull run from 82-2000 which is how I FIREd :dance:, a 9 year bear run from 2000 to 2009 and now I think we're in the next secular market which is a bull. You get cyclical markets within secular markets so you'll get bears within bulls and vice versa. If only we had a crystal ball eh?

I am a bit nervous and should rebalance but I keep shifting my AA between 40/60 to 50/50 to 60/40 so I'm not sure what to do cuz I don't know what my AA is (should be if I'm honest)! But I do think it's time to rebalance because I do believe in the long run this is how you win.
 
Makes sense. I will drink to the secular bull market, 2014 being the 5th year and have another 15 years to go. That will make my ER very secure. :cool:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

K
2022 Personal Financial Report Card
Replies
14
Views
1K
Dtail
D
EvrClrx311
Trying to time the markets
2
Replies
42
Views
5K
OldShooter
OldShooter
dtbach
Friend is trying to get me into his annuities
2 3
Replies
55
Views
8K
ArkTinkerer
A
R
The power of always staying invested
Replies
9
Views
3K
marko
M
clifp
My thoughts on Warren Buffett's 2014 shareholder letter.
Replies
2
Views
2K
springnr
S

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom