"It's always really different this time..." Nords
Nords, this is really getting tiring. In the school yard the bully always says, "Oh, yeah?" to everything the other kid says.
Well, my answer to your "Oh yeah"? Is... "Yeah".
If you don't think it's different this time then you are not paying attention.
OK, I'll volley another round, although phrases like "bully" and "not paying attention" and "pig-headed" tend to put a damper on the free exchange of ideas. Heck, they could even be seen as personal attacks in need of reporting or moderation. But there's no need to shoot the messenger if you don't care for the message.
And in every case I've seen the phrase "this time its different" used as a pejorative (including this one) the intent was pretty clear.
Nords can correct me if I've misinterpreted his intent.
Nah, it's pejorative.
"This time it's really different" is a cliché intended to invite some perspective to those who have discovered for the board's umpteenth time what they feel is a unique aspect of a crisis. However that crisis really hasn't demonstrated much difference from the previous several crises in at least the last century, let alone the last several centuries.
So, Boont, getting back to your specifics:
When were all three major automakers at or near bankruptcy?
Let's start with Chrysler in 1979 or Ford in 2001-2 or GM selling out to the unions in the 1980s. (The unions were doing a good job of keeping management from screwing up the company even further. Nonetheless both sides made irresponsible bargains whose implications are now coming due.) Look at VW's recent abuse at the hands of the Porsche block and Daimler-Chrysler's totally indigestible screwed-up merger. At another conference, Buffett has held up a 70-page document listing all the auto manufacturers of the 19th & 20th centuries who've gone bankrupt or been subsumed into bigger firms.
In another thread I mentioned that Buffett has pointed out that a century of airlines have consumed more billions in capital investment than they've returned in profit. I'll point out separately that in the 19th century there were hundreds of railroad companies going bankrupt. Yet somehow the country continues to train, fly, & drive.
I feel that manufacturers of public-transportation equipment are dealing in commodities with razor-thin margins. If they can't hack it then they'll go the way of their many many predecessors and we'll all move on. Not much different about it today. Toyota, Honda, & Nissan seem to be making much more effective use of their own govt subsidies, their own American plants, their own American workers, and their own quality/savings initiatives. Even Ford has foreign plants that beat the heck out of their American plants. So what's the problem with the old "Big Three" in Detroit? They know they can't afford their labor costs, and bankruptcy is the best way to deal with it.
When was it that all financial institutions world-wide from Switzerland, to Germany, to Saudi Arabia, to China, to Japan all on the ropes?
WWI and WWII both did a pretty thorough job of trashing worldwide banking systems. Japan's banking system-- they did it to themselves in the 1990s and didn't need any help from us. China-- even more widespread fraud than in the U.S., and for decades before this. Germany & Switzerland… don't know but I bet it gets back to the euro and the economic agreements that EU countries are supposed to abide by within their own borders.
We Americans tend to focus on the Great Depression without looking abroad to realize that things sucked pretty badly in other countries at the time. In fact WWII started for much of the world in 1933 and we just came in at the third act. I think your perspective on these financial issues would be broadened, maybe even cheered up a little, by reading Dimson & Marsh's "Triumph of the Optimists". Then there's the banking problems of 1893, 1907, & 1913. That's off the top of my head, but I think in inflation-adjusted terms they were more serious and widespread than today's banking issues.
Without these massive government bailouts you and me and ever one else is sunk. Do you deny this?
Nords, when did this happen before?
If you don't think it's different this time then you are not paying attention. When do you recall every major bank in the U.S. being technically bankrupt?
Actually I happen to agree with you on some of this; no "denial" required. The government is doing what govts are supposed to do in times like this-- inject liquidity and reduce fear through deficit spending. Economists are pretty sure that cutting off the money supply in 1929-30 made the Depression even worse, as demonstrated by beneficial results of the subsequent prolonged bank holidays and frantic attempts to add liquidity & employment. The Soapbox guys can make their own comparisons between the Roosevelt & Obama administrations.
During the bank panics of 1907 & 1913, without the Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan pretty much strong-armed his fellow robber barons into injecting their own liquidity through massive buying and loans. At some point someone must've said "This really sucks, and this time I really mean it. Let's build a Federal Reserve and make it the government's problem next time."
I'm not as cognizant of bank financial status as Brewer, whose opinions I'll defer to, but I'll point out that Wells Fargo and two of Hawaii's biggest regional/state banks appear to be doing just fine. "Every major bank in the U.S. technically bankrupt" seems to me to be a bit of a sweeping generalization.
Nords, this is really getting tiring.
You want tiring? I'll give you an example of tiring. "Tiring" is having to read a dozen "doom & gloom and this time we really mean it" threads every time the economy hits a speed bump. Just because a poster has become painfully & personally aware of an apparent catastrophe in their general vicinity does not make it a cataclysmic event requiring page after page of "sky is falling" posts and personal attacks.
Of course, this time it could really be different. But I doubt it.