Tomorrows market?

[Lsbcal]

From 1970-2007, I have yet to find a year where both the S&P 500 lost and so did bonds. 1994 was close (bonds negative, S&P500 positive), and so was 1973 (bonds positive, S&P500 really negative). The current economic environment is far closer to 1973-74 than 1994. A repeat of 1973-74 would be brutal.

I think you are thinking of bond nominal returns, before inflation. If bonds return 4% but inflation was 8% the real return is -4%. And this doesn't even take into account taxes which will eventually have to be paid even if your bonds are in a retirement account.

FIRECalc specifically takes inflation into account. If we had deflation you could have small negative nominal returns in stocks and bonds but because your purchasing power went up it's possible that the FIRECalc numbers will actually increase -- take a look at the early 1930's.

 

[al_bundy]

I think it will be worse because the US spent 1850 to 1990 building this country into the manufacturing superpower of the world and the last twenty years frittering it all away.

go read some history

the economy in 1850 was pretty bad because after the Second Bank of the United States lost it's charter. the states defaulted on their foreign loans which were mostly from the British Empire. These loans were used to build the Erie Canal and other infrastructure. George Peabody who started the company that eventually became JP Morgan made some contributions to political campaigns of politicians that promised to repay these loans and most were eventually repaid.

Until the 2nd world war the US used to suffer regular depressions. in fact the Depression of 1873 was called the Great Depression until 1939.

the industrial revolution happened in the US because of the huge immigrant influx due to European events like the Irish Potato Famine and the US was the China of it's day. cheap manufacturing and IP theft.

 

[Dawg52]

A very good proxy for a balanced portfolio psst Wellesley -5.00% YTD 1 year -1.86% (My Unclemick is looking smarter every day.)

I bet he wishes he owned it.

 

[CitricAcid]

go read some history

the economy in 1850 was pretty bad because after the Second Bank of the United States lost it's charter. the states defaulted on their foreign loans which were mostly from the British Empire. These loans were used to build the Erie Canal and other infrastructure. George Peabody who started the company that eventually became JP Morgan made some contributions to political campaigns of politicians that promised to repay these loans and most were eventually repaid.

Until the 2nd world war the US used to suffer regular depressions. in fact the Depression of 1873 was called the Great Depression until 1939.

the industrial revolution happened in the US because of the huge immigrant influx due to European events like the Irish Potato Famine and the US was the China of it's day. cheap manufacturing and IP theft.

Also, the Depressions were far spread over countries, as the "Great Depression" of 1873 was pretty much the entire Western hemisphere going into an economics downturn. With the interdependence of countries now and the vast expansion in human capital, I feel the ups and the downs will be slightly less than before, I just don't see the same "Great Depression" coming, but don't see a boom like the 94-00 either for a long time.

 

[ziggy29]

I bet he wishes he owned it.

That reminds me. It's about time to move another chunk of my mom's inherited IRA money from the Vanguard MMF to Wellesley.

 

[Lsbcal]

... I feel the ups and the downs will be slightly less than before, I just don't see the same "Great Depression" coming, but don't see a boom like the 94-00 either for a long time.

I tend to agree. But this stuff is only clear in retrospect. Most of us will not really "see" anything that we can name (bull mkt, bear mkt, depression, etc.) until it's in the rear view mirror.

 

[Bestwifeever]

That reminds me. It's about time to move another chunk of my mom's inherited IRA money from the Vanguard MMF to Wellesley.

Wait, are you alerting us that Wellesley will now begin falling in value a la USO?

 

[Marquette]

I'm going to take the day off from work and have a nice breakfast

To close out my involvement in this thread.

We slept in late. I made scrambled eggs (spinach and sour cream in the eggs... lots of pepper to taste) and served those with bagels from the local bakery. Did some marital things. Took my wife to the fabric store. Made some pasta for dinner. Played video games. Marital stuff again. Bed.

I did check my 401(k) today, though.

I should have taken today off as well.

 

[ziggy29]

Wait, are you alerting us that Wellesley will now begin falling in value a la USO?

No. That only applies to my holdings, not my mom's.

 

[Dawg52]

What in the frig happened today? I'm gone all day and just turn on the tube to see where the DOW closed up 150 points. Crap, I was just getting use to banging my head up against a wall at the end of every day.

 

[bentley]

To close out my involvement in this thread.
We slept in late. I made scrambled eggs (spinach and sour cream in the eggs... lots of pepper to taste) and served those with bagels from the local bakery. Did some marital things. Took my wife to the fabric store. Made some pasta for dinner. Played video games. Marital stuff again. Bed.
I did check my 401(k) today, though. I should have taken today off as well.

You sure are doing lots of "marital things" there. What's your secret?
<snicker>

 

[ziggy29]

What in the frig happened today? I'm gone all day and just turn on the tube to see where the DOW closed up 150 points. Crap, I was just getting use to banging my head up against a wall at the end of every day.

I think the market decided to finally celebrate oil's decline so my sacrifices wouldn't be in vain. (And I'm still long USO -- make of that what you will.)

In particular it looks like REITs were up 7-8%. What happened there?!?!

 

[Marquette]

You sure are doing lots of "marital things" there. What's your secret?
<snicker>

I wish I knew... I think there was a blue moon yesterday.

 

[HFWR]

...

 

[TromboneAl]

You sure are doing lots of "marital things" there. What's your secret?

No secret. He took his wife to the fabric store.

 

[Bestwifeever]

Ziggy if USO goes below 100 and the market continues to react to the drop I will take up a collection for you to show our gratitude.

 

[Darryl]

Hey that was kinda fun the vgsix I bought yesterday was up over 6% today looks like I'll be up (365x6%) 2,190% for the coming year.

 

[al_bundy]

What in the frig happened today? I'm gone all day and just turn on the tube to see where the DOW closed up 150 points. Crap, I was just getting use to banging my head up against a wall at the end of every day.

bernanke spoke this morning and said he would extend the current emergency loans to 2009. the fed funds rate futures jumped and now predict higher rates earlier and that is good news for the dollar.

the short term technical indicators have been showing oversold for a while now and started to tick up a bit in the last week or so even though the market was falling. i think this was just an excuse to cover shorts

 

[Ronnieboy]

We slept in late. I made scrambled eggs (spinach and sour cream in the eggs... lots of pepper to taste) and served those with bagels from the local bakery. Did some marital things. Took my wife to the fabric store. Made some pasta for dinner. Played video games. Marital stuff again. Bed.

My wife says "marital things" is vacuuming the carpet, washing the dishes, laundry. Not true?

 

[RDamien]

Hey that was kinda fun the vgsix I bought yesterday was up over 6% today looks like I'll be up (365x6%) 2,190% for the coming year.

Time to firm up those FIRE plans!

 

[clifp]

Yesterday, I was looking at writing put options on some more banks. I stopped myself and said "no this is stupid you don't need to take any more risk".

Now normally when I want to do X but I talk myself out of it, I feel pissed when hindsight proves I was right. Today with most banks stocks up 5-10%, I don't feel any regret just relief. I guess this is a real bear market.

 

[Marquette]

My wife says "marital things" is vacuuming the carpet, washing the dishes, laundry. Not true?

Hey, if she wants to do those things first...

man, I am funny tonight.

 

[retire@40]

...Did some marital things...

Being in the stock market is like a marital thing as well.

Some days are good and some days are bad. And you know once in a while you're going to take a beating (non-physical), but you do it anyway.

 

[Dawg52]

Being in the stock market is like a marital thing as well.

Some days are good and some days are bad. And you know once in a while you're going to take a beating (non-physical), but you do it anyway.

Mines physical, I bang my head up against a wall. Got a baseball size bump on my forehead as I type this.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Mines physical, I bang my head up against a wall. Got a baseball size bump on my forehead as I type this.

They got this foam padding stuff you can get and it has..oh wait er nm