Tomorrows market?
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Moemg
Gone but not forgotten
One of my stocks is up over 300%. Too bad it's a penney stock .
Mines physical, I bang my head up against a wall. Got a baseball size bump on my forehead as I type this.
Was that the wall? or the headboard? Tell us please....we need hope,....or was that change?
Moemg
Gone but not forgotten
Today I looked at IP ( international Paper ) . I sold 5,000 shares in 2001 at 40 and today it's at 22.29 . I'm suddenly feeling better about the market .
ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
One does have to wonder when the water torture will end, though. Drip, drip, drip. The chart over the last six weeks just looks about as brutal as any six-week chart I can remember seeing -- it puts much of the 2000-02 period to shame in terms of this much decline in this short a time frame. Only September 2002 was worse in recent history, and that, of course, turned out to be the capitulation. Panic sellers in 9/02 would have been kicking themselves.
At some point all the scared money will be out. I just wish I knew when that was so I could go all in. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dow 10,000 tested as more and more doomsday news gets the ink, but I doubt it would stay there long unless the doomsday people are right this time. Right now it just looks like everything is an [-]excuse[/-] reason to sell.
ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
Never mind. Gave every bit of it back today.
Moemg
Gone but not forgotten
Me too, the market gyrations usually don't bother me but this is making me crazy . I'll soon be banging my head on the wall like Dawg or accepting my former bosses pleas to return .
Basically I admit I could not figure out market bottom. When I looked back 2003, many stocks I bot and sold with a little chip gain, become 40 or 50 baggers, even in today's market.
High oil, down house value, weak dollars, too many things I have no way to figure out.
Only thing I could do is to read sec file, googling, calling IR... and buy something I feel comfortable.
High oil, down house value, weak dollars, too many things I have no way to figure out.
Only thing I could do is to read sec file, googling, calling IR... and buy something I feel comfortable.
Notmuchlonger
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Depending on exactly when you sold it, they've distributed ~$7 in dividends since then. So yeah, it's down, but not as much as your numbers would imply.
clifp
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
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With our good buddy AMadJihadist providing some fireworks (somebody should tell him that the 4th of July is on July 4) in the Straits of Hormuz, and the market down again it is appropriate to share my new favorite stock market quote.
Which is even more pithy than Warren's favorite saying
Dawg52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Ok, the world is back to normal again. I go play golf, come home, and see where the DOW declined by more than 2%. Before I have my nightly glass of wine, I think I'll go do a few more head banging exercises. ![:-\](https://www.early-retirement.org/sk/forums/images/smilies/undecided.gif "Undecided :-\")
The market and news is looking and feeling very sick. We are either near a low and ready for a big rally or ready to fall off the cliff and go into the first serious recession in a long time. Please, whoever has the working crystal ball, fill us in. It's never too late to get fully invested or save some money. Risky asset markets tend to be like that. It's so much fun
haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
The market and news is looking and feeling very sick. We are either near a low and ready for a big rally or ready to fall off the cliff and go into the first serious recession in a long time. Please, whoever has the working crystal ball, fill us in. It's never too late to get fully invested or save some money. Risky asset markets tend to be like that. It's so much fun
Why would this be true? Isn't this perhaps just polarized thinking? "Either something really good is going to happen to me, or I am going to come around a corner and catch a bullet."
I tend to agee that there will be a rally, there always is. How big a deal that is would remain to be revealed. Anyway, even some stocks that are not full of weird assets and unknowable liabilities are also very cheap. Even if they never go up, if they can just stumble along not screwing up too badly today's buyer will make money.
Ha
Frugality_of_Apathy
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I think the market still hasn't felt the full impact of the lending restrictions and bankruptcies from ARMs people couldn't afford. Since they really only started tightening up lending restrictions 6 months ago people that were counting on refinancing are just starting to think about not make their payments in earnest. Losing your house is a slow process. I think we've got another year and a half of fallout before we can think about saying it's bottomed out.
newporttony
Recycles dryer sheets
No offense, but there are many, many people with the same exact view; in fact, this seems to have become the consensus view. While things may or may not play out as you describe, I wouldn't be so sure that the market hasn't yet discounted the worst case.
Frugality_of_Apathy
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I know there are many people that have the same views. The problem is that there are many more people investing in the market and the market has no long term memory. They will essentially forget about the whole housing debacle and will be completely shocked and unprepared every time a lender posts a loss.
CitricAcid
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In regards to the housing market, I agree, we could see a lot farther drop as tending practices tighten up and people can't refinance their mortgage... I could (and hope to) see another 8-12% nationwide drop in housing prices over the next two years or so.
The stock market though? Not sure that I agree, a lot of the writing on the wall has been factored into the prices (not saying that we can't go down further)... especially consider the really low P/Es of financials right now. The market expects them to post record losses in the following 2-3 quarters so that when it is all said and done their P/Es will either be N/A or in the high 20s... in other words, a lot of the drop in regards to the banking/market has already happened, which is tough for many value investors looking for attractive YoY earnings and revenue growth, P/E and PEG ratios...
ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
The interesting thing, though, is that once the pain is mostly behind the big financials, they'll be screaming buys. They may be selling for prices that would lead to a P/E in the mid single-digits under periods of typical profitability.
The question, of course, is: when does the falling knife finally get stopped by the block of wood so it's safe to pick up?
CitricAcid
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I was thinking the same exact thing... when Citigroup fell from $50 to $28 with a $2.10 a year dividend (it recently dropped to $1.28 ) I was salivating. Then, it went down to $22... and I got a little aroused. Now it is bouncing around $16-18, when will the writing be on the wall. Some of the other financial industries (I am looking at you, bond insurers and homebuilders) may take a lot longer to clear, and it is tough (dare I say impossible for me) to predict when the turnaround in the pricing and the future of these financials are. (btw, I like STD long term... the bank not the... never mind)
retire@40
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Funny you should mention Citigroup. For what it's worth, I have been looking at Citigroup for a while too. I finally bought in earlier this morning. I think it has more upward potential than downward potential right now. The dividend of 7.8% is just about the rate of return I am looking for in dividend-paying stocks, so it's the perfect fit for me right now.
Well, I'd say that pretty much covers the entire spectrum of market forecasts. I hope you can get a refund on the time & life effort you expended on that analysis.
Maybe it's better to use this time (and your feelings & reactions to the current market environment) to pick an asset allocation that will let you be less concerned and able to spend less time fretting over where the market's headed.
And then we can all get back to the business of getting a real life.
ziggy29
Moderator Emeritus
Of course, almost any time the market prices a stock with a yield like that -- especially in a low interest rate environment -- the market is telling you that it doesn't expect the current dividend to be sustained much longer.
newporttony
Recycles dryer sheets
Speaking of high yields, BAC is paying almost 11%. Ken Lewis reaffirmed today that the bank doesn't plan to cut the dividend, but Wall Street doesn't see it that way.
I don't buy individual equities, but I think some people are going to make a lot of money over the long haul on some of these financials.
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