Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds Discussion

[dixonge]

speaking of i-bonds:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/as-...s-i-bonds-treasurydirect-gets-a-makeover.html

Wish they would have remade something besides the front-end info pages. Entering your password using an on-screen keyboard w/ no feedback is cruel and unusual!

 

[Born2Fish]

Fidelity shows an expected yield of 3.839% for the 6 month T-bill auction on 10/11/22.

I can buy the same T-bill on the secondary market today with a 4% yield.

Is the Fido estimate just conservative, or, is the auction T-bill auction yield expected to go down?

(I prefer buying direct at auction)

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Fidelity shows an expected yield of 3.839% for the 6 month T-bill auction on 10/11/22.

I can buy the same T-bill on the secondary market today with a 4% yield.

Is the Fido estimate just conservative, or, is the auction T-bill auction yield expected to go down?

(I prefer buying direct at auction)

If the yield was truly expected to go down, then arbs would:
buy T-Bills yielding 4% today , sell them on Tuesday @ 3.839%. Pocket the diff.

The secondary market tells you what *is*, as of now.

 

[FIREd_2015]

Fidelity shows an expected yield of 3.839% for the 6 month T-bill auction on 10/11/22.

I can buy the same T-bill on the secondary market today with a 4% yield.

Is the Fido estimate just conservative, or, is the auction T-bill auction yield expected to go down?

(I prefer buying direct at auction)

I bought some 6 month T-bills at auction last week on Fidelity and expected yield was below the actual yield. I also put in an order for some more 6 month T-bills for 10/11 auction and I'm guessing the actual yield will be over 4% unless something unexpected happens over the weekend since Treasury.gov says the yield on 6 months is 4.09% as of 10/7. I've bought several times over the past 6 months and the expected yield has always been below actual yield.

 

[audreyh1]

Fidelity shows an expected yield of 3.839% for the 6 month T-bill auction on 10/11/22.

I can buy the same T-bill on the secondary market today with a 4% yield.

Is the Fido estimate just conservative, or, is the auction T-bill auction yield expected to go down?

(I prefer buying direct at auction)

I find the Fidelity “expected yield” for the auctions to be extremely conservative and sometimes quite off - low these days.

I think for the auction last week the Fidelity expected yield was 3.6 or 3.7 something and I think I got 3.981% at auction. I expected it to be very close to 4% based on where the secondary market was trading the most recent issue 6 month t-bill at the time.

 

[jldavid47]

I told my wife yesterday that we had about half of our financial assets loaned to the Federal government. Her immediate response: "Will we get paid back?"

 

[jldavid47]

US Government Agency (Federal Home Loan Bank) 2 year callable bonds have hit 5% this morning:

FHLB 5% 10/25/2024 Callable CUSIP 3130ATN78. Callable quarterly starting 1/25/23. Minimum $10,000 investment at Schwab. S&P Rating AA+, Moody's Rating Aaa.

 

[lawman]

US Government Agency (Federal Home Loan Bank) 2 year callable bonds have hit 5% this morning:

FHLB 5% 10/25/2024 Callable CUSIP 3130ATN78. Callable quarterly starting 1/25/23. Minimum $10,000 investment at Schwab. S&P Rating AA+, Moody's Rating Aaa.

Thanks but no longer available at Schwab. I settled for 6 month treasury YTM4.09%

 

[CRLLS]

FWIW, that looks to be available at Fido on 3rd party for 99.927

 

[jldavid47]

26-week Treasury Bill Auction Results

Term:                         26-Week  
High Rate:                    4.030% 
Investment Rate*:             4.171% 
Price:                        $97.962611 
Allotted at High:             9.31% 
Total Tendered:               $133,616,205,100 
Total Accepted:               $49,705,800,100 
Issue Date:                   10/13/2022 
Maturity Date:                04/13/2023 
CUSIP:                        912796YU7  

*Equivalent coupon-issue yield

 

[jldavid47]

13-Week Treasury Bill Auction Results

Term:                         13-Week  
High Rate:                    3.510% 
Investment Rate*:             3.591% 
Price:                        $99.112750 
Allotted at High:             91.20% 
Total Tendered:               $142,041,069,000 
Total Accepted:               $62,960,089,000 
Issue Date:                   10/13/2022 
Maturity Date:                01/12/2023 
CUSIP:                        912796XR5

*Equivalent coupon-issue yield

 

[jldavid47]

Thanks but no longer available at Schwab. I settled for 6 month treasury YTM4.09%

Yes, I found that out after I posted and tried to buy some. Bummer.

 

[audreyh1]

13 week is finally moving up there!

 

[jldavid47]

13 week is finally moving up there!

So is the 26 week. I was quite happy to buy some at auction today and get a YTM of 4.17%.

 

[MarieIG]

I was determined to take a respite from buying bonds, but it seems that someone broke into one of my accounts and put in an order for a 26 week treasury, which executed this morning.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I told my wife yesterday that we had about half of our financial assets loaned to the Federal government. Her immediate response: "Will we get paid back?"

The correct answer is "Yes, but we won't be able to buy as much stuff with what we are paid back compared to today".

 

[calmloki]

The correct answer is "Yes, but we won't be able to buy as much stuff with what we are paid back compared to today".

Lesson taught: spend it all now to save money.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

13 week is finally moving up there!

Yea, I have an 8-week one maturing next Monday (@2.366%) that I will be using to buy 13-week paper (hopefully around that 3.5% range) in next Monday's auction.

 

[JoeWras]

I was determined to take a respite from buying bonds, but it seems that someone broke into one of my accounts and put in an order for a 26 week treasury, which executed this morning.

Someone made a good move.

 

[Montecfo]

US Government Agency (Federal Home Loan Bank) 2 year callable bonds have hit 5% this morning:

FHLB 5% 10/25/2024 Callable CUSIP 3130ATN78. Callable quarterly starting 1/25/23. Minimum $10,000 investment at Schwab. S&P Rating AA+, Moody's Rating Aaa.

I bought the 5 yr FHLB bond at 5.5%. Same call features, which I hate, but feel I need to start extending/diversifying holdings in terms of term.

 

[COcheesehead]

FZDXX, a money market, now pays 3%

 

[jldavid47]

119-Day Treasury Cash Management Bill Auction Results

Term:                         119-Day  
High Rate:                    3.890% 
Investment Rate*:             3.995% 
Price:                        $98.714139
Allotted at High:             40.25% 
Total Tendered:               $106,544,034,000 
Total Accepted:               $33,000,241,100 
Issue Date:                   10/18/2022 
Maturity Date:                02/14/2023 
CUSIP:                        912796ZU6  

 *Equivalent coupon-issue yield

These are essentially 4 month T-bills

 

[audreyh1]

Forgot, when do they become official 17 week t-bills?

 

[jldavid47]

Forgot, when do they become official 17 week t-bills?

I have no idea and I don't think it matters in practice.

 

[Graybeard]

Isn't the 6 month T bill's spread vs the 3 month the best T bill rate? There is a fairly large increase between the 3 and 6 month but of course the time to hold is double. The 1 year isn't that much higher than the 26 week