Unemployment measurements changed over time?

[Gardnr]

...but if the above claims are true, where are the ..... hoovervilles?

Apparently they're getting some started out in Sacramento. Sacramento homeless tent city

When you build a significant part of your economy (California, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Florida) on a housing bubble, it's a real bummer when it bursts.

 

[Gone4Good]

Gumment stats - CPI, GDP, unemployment rate, etc. - are probably better for tracking trends than providing a "real" number.

People feel that way but I'm not sure it's true. I took a look at a bunch of prices reported in the NJ Record paper from 1900-2008 and found that CPI explained inflation pretty darn well.

Historic price survey, Morris County New Jersey 1900-2000

US Government stats tend to be prepared in a pretty transparent way. They aren't perfect, for sure, but outright fraud and manipulation is highly unlikely. Also, if the government numbers were deliberately skewed, you'd see private economists and forecasters adjusting the government numbers to compensate for the skew . . . I've never seen anyone claim to do that.

 

[2B]

Thank goodness I have actually worked at McDonald's plus other crap jobs too numerous to name. I guess when you started out as a cockroach, you can always go back to being one.

Heck, with my current job, there are days I feel that it ain't but 2 steps above working at McDonald's minus the slutty girls. Hey, maybe I'll work at McD's for a couple of weeks and then show up at a presidential town hall meeting and rant and rave a bit. I wonder if it will lead to new career opportunities.

I really missed out. When I worked at McDonald's they only hired boys. A few slutty girls would have spiced things up a bit.

I worked all sorts of crappy jobs. My kids refuse to believe I was a busboy in a Mexican restaurant but that was before "guest workers" took over the industry. My kids and DW seem to have this attitude that some jobs are "beneath them" which is so far out of my mindset. I tell them that wait until you won't have a place to sleep and food to eat. There aren't many things you won't do to avoid that.

Of course, now I make big bucks and do very little real w*rk. I'm hoping to get unemployment checks as severance pay some day. I intend to totally commit myself to not finding a suitable position. I certainly can't be expected to take a position beneath my skill level.

 

[Independent]

People feel that way but I'm not sure it's true. I took a look at a bunch of prices reported in the NJ Record paper from 1900-2008 and found that CPI explained inflation pretty darn well.

Historic price survey, Morris County New Jersey 1900-2000

US Government stats tend to be prepared in a pretty transparent way. They aren't perfect, for sure, but outright fraud and manipulation is highly unlikely. Also, if the government numbers were deliberately skewed, you'd see private economists and forecasters adjusting the government numbers to compensate for the skew . . . I've never seen anyone claim to do that.

Interesting tables. I've thought about doing the same thing using old Sears catalogs. Your wording is "I took a bunch ...". Did you put the tables together?

 

[rmark]

IIRC, unemployment stats were not kept in the 1930's. The 20% unemployed during that time is a later estimate.

Shadow Stats apparently applies a 'correction factor' to official stats, supposedly making it comparable to older official methods. However, at least in the case of the consumer price index and hedonic adjustments this has been disputed.

See 'Adressing Misconceptions about the Consumer Price Index" by Greenlee and McClelland