No, I see no reason for the US $ to increase or decrease relative to other currencies.
And if it was true that this was truly predictable, the market would have already taken that into effect. If folks know the direction of the dollar, then they can make a fortune on derivatives. The US $ is almost exactly where it was immediately after the Euro was allowed to float against the US $ in 1999 (within ~3 cents).
The reason the trade deficit is high is because the American economy is doing so well compared to other developed economies, and because the US does not have a huge demographic problem coming down the pipe (which helps long term growth prospects).
When Japan decides to build a Honda plant in Kentucky and employ American workers, all that continuous stream of investment money as the factory and cars get built gets counted as part of the 'trade deficit'. Foreigners must sell huge net amounts of goods and services to Americans in order to fund their investments in US assets. When the US economy stops its amazing growth relative to other developed nations (in history, I am not sure if there has ever been this large of a differential over a 5 year period, but I am not sure), the trade deficit, unfortunately, will decrease. The country with the largest trade surplus, Germany, is an economic basket case with ~12% unemployment and moribund growth. Few companies (including German multinationals) want to invest unnecessarily in German assets because of rigid labor laws and high costs.
In fact, although Americans buy fewer assets outside of the country than foreigner buy American assets, the net investment income earned is almost identical -- because investments outside of the US are riskier and thus require a higher cost of capital, and so the US investors get better rates of return.
The US has been running trade deficits for over 30 years, I believe.
And just for clarification -- the budget deficit, on the other hand, is not good and is a genuine long term problem.
Kramer