Sunset
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Now that they don't need so much cash, I wonder if they will call some of their bonds paying over 5.5% ?
We are entering a "Golden Period" for fixed income investing
- Thread starter Freedom56
- Start date
- Status
Now that they don't need so much cash, I wonder if they will call some of their bonds paying over 5.5% ?
Freedom56
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I hope not. Bank of Nova Scotia 6% 2026 notes have their first call on 5/21/23. This one was issued last November. It will be interesting to see if they call the note.
lawman
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I can only wish I had some that were at risk of being called.
Montecfo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Glad I sold my First Horizon stock at 24.50.
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I have FHLB 5.75% 5 year bond that is callable in June for the first time. I’m hoping the rate is just low enough to slip unnoticed past the powers that be.
Well done!!!
pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
What I'm finding is that since my ladder is now established that I'm targeting 4-6 year maturities with the proceeds from current maturities so I have to temper my expectations from the 5% available on the short end of the curve. Also looking at A or better corporates and not finding much there either. Avoiding callable other than callable at 4% or lower coupons and not finding much there either.
COcheesehead
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
The short end is an opportunity when rates are popping over 5% and I bought that end as well, but I also really want dependable income in my taxable account for another 8-9 years so I have been buying munis with longer non call periods. My state specific. The ladder yields in the mid 5% ish range as a taxable equivalent which makes my plan work well. I find little else attractive right now. I don’t have much maturing this year anymore, about $65,000 so I am locking in and letting things run.
Freedom56
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
This BAC 6% 2027 note was upgraded to A1 on 5/3/23 by Moody's.
"Event Alert - CUSIP 06048WZ29 - Moody's Rating Upgrade - UPGRADED TO A1 ON 05/03/23"
All recent trades have been above par. However, someone made three trades of $1K each at $95 and slightly below to drop the third party price to no doubt panic the investor. This note has not open bid/asks but watch a lowball bid appear to gobble up this note. Market manipulation or fleecing of a seller?
This time I'll place my bid above the lowball bid when it appears.
"Event Alert - CUSIP 06048WZ29 - Moody's Rating Upgrade - UPGRADED TO A1 ON 05/03/23"
All recent trades have been above par. However, someone made three trades of $1K each at $95 and slightly below to drop the third party price to no doubt panic the investor. This note has not open bid/asks but watch a lowball bid appear to gobble up this note. Market manipulation or fleecing of a seller?
This time I'll place my bid above the lowball bid when it appears.
Attachments
Trailwalker
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Mar 19, 2021
- Messages
- 624
Interesting. Very thinly traded. What are NREM and ATS under trade attributes?
Freedom56
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
The trading platform used for the over the counter trade.
Wall Street is starting to realize rates are not going to cut anytime soon. Will this push up 2, 3, 5 and 10 year rates once this is fully recognized?
I have a different view of the future than many. I believe we will dip into a slight recession that simply stops job growth, but companies will continue to deliver decent earnings for the next two years with belt tightening and modest layoffs. In my opinion, the excessive spending of the last few years will continue to push the economy forward, and AI is the productivity silver bullet the world has been needing, after the internet and mobile were responsible for the last wave of productivity improvements. Inflation will continue to run at 3.5 percent for the next few years. This is a very optimistic view from someone who historically has been pretty pessimistic about our economy.
I have a different view of the future than many. I believe we will dip into a slight recession that simply stops job growth, but companies will continue to deliver decent earnings for the next two years with belt tightening and modest layoffs. In my opinion, the excessive spending of the last few years will continue to push the economy forward, and AI is the productivity silver bullet the world has been needing, after the internet and mobile were responsible for the last wave of productivity improvements. Inflation will continue to run at 3.5 percent for the next few years. This is a very optimistic view from someone who historically has been pretty pessimistic about our economy.
copyright1997reloaded
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
You bring up an interesting point here. I've been in the camp that while we may see a short/mid-term reduction in inflation, the longer run trend is up. However, if we are able to get a radical upward shift in productivity due to AI, that is disinflationary and increased productivity results in increased standard of living (in the long run).
Potentially offsetting this are all the social ramifications of such a disruptive technology, that was seen as an issue long ago (e.g. Player Piano, written in 1952). As much as ER.org is oriented to NOT working, in general people need a purpose and having a large segment of the population not working (even if given a "living income") will likely be very problematic.
Back to investing, I need to assess/think about how rapid advances in AI might help/hurt various industries.
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
That depends on why they are not working.
This may not be true of the ER.org folks, but I know a number of older folks who babysit the grands while the parents work. If the parents had to pay for daycare, for one of them there would be no point in working. I suppose one can argue that babysitting the grands is a job. I would.
I know of several younger couples who found during the Covid lockdowns that one parent caring for the small kids most of the day was doable if the other parent made a good 'professional' salary, and they watched their budget.
Freedom56
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bank of Nova Scotia 6% 5-21-2025 Notes survived the first call date 5-21-23. The notice period per the prospectus is 10 business days or 5/8/2023. The current spread between new issuances and the costs associated with re-financing and this issue is small enough that the are not going through the trouble of calling. So there is hope that all those high grade 6%+ notes from last October/November may survive for a while. But since hope is not a plan, there are plenty of alternatives, if they happen to be called.
https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+424B2+BANK+OF+NOVA+SCOTIA/20874337.html
https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+424B2+BANK+OF+NOVA+SCOTIA/20874337.html
Freedom56
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
The return of the 6% coupon notes:
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC MTN 6.00000% 05/30/2028 with 6 month call protection
CUSIP 38150AT21
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC MTN 6.00000% 05/31/2033 with 1 year call protection
CUSIP 38150ASZ9
With the debt ceiling drama unfolding, better deals will likely follow.
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC MTN 6.00000% 05/30/2028 with 6 month call protection
CUSIP 38150AT21
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC MTN 6.00000% 05/31/2033 with 1 year call protection
CUSIP 38150ASZ9
With the debt ceiling drama unfolding, better deals will likely follow.
Dream Weaver
Dryer sheet wannabe
- Joined
- Jul 4, 2012
- Messages
- 21
Yes, we should see a temporary spike in rates. How high depends on how long the dog and pony show goes on. Hopefully I can convert some MM cash to longish term CDs and bonds in that window of opportunity.
Montecfo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
^^^Possibly. But longer bonds rallied into debt ceiling in 2011. Benefits so far would be limited to ST issues.
dobig
Recycles dryer sheets
Bought a 3% position in the new 30 year make whole Apple 4.85% bonds a little under par (cusip 037833EW6). I understand most here don't prefer long duration but I want a mix of long and short duration.
I'm sitting in so much cash and need to start diversifying. Only other recent move is a 2% position in WFC.PL which will yield me 6.5%. Can't seem to get any of those 6%+ GS bonds at a decent price and the 2+ year GSE's are either lower yield or callable.
Currently getting 5.25% APY on my cash at Marcus savings account so in no rush but a bit antsy.
I'm sitting in so much cash and need to start diversifying. Only other recent move is a 2% position in WFC.PL which will yield me 6.5%. Can't seem to get any of those 6%+ GS bonds at a decent price and the 2+ year GSE's are either lower yield or callable.
Currently getting 5.25% APY on my cash at Marcus savings account so in no rush but a bit antsy.
Last edited:
Freedom56
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Long durations can be risky with corporate bonds. It's difficult to see where a corporation will be beyond 10 years. Technology changes fast. For me 4.85% is not enough to lock in 30 years on a corporate. However, you are doing much better than the funds that bought the Apple 30 year bond with a 2.4% coupon.
https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C925725&symbol=AAPL5030513
dobig
Recycles dryer sheets
Swapped out 2/3 of my Apple position for the JPM 20 year non callable 5.625% (Cusip 46625HJM3) for better yield. I know this is still less of a yield than you recommend at this time for corporates but I need/want to lock in some long duration right now and I'm looking for rock solid stability. Appreciate all your posts and advice you give.
Montecfo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
It does not seem crazy. I think a lot of folks may regret not grabbing some of these while available.
A ladder of maturities I think is a conservative approach so you are not wagering your entire allocation on what is in effect an interest rate call.
COcheesehead
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I’ve been going long - er - ish for months now. 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 + years as my laddered bonds mature. Mostly in non callable or longer no call window munis both taxable and tax free. Some corporates. The yield when I bought was higher than today, some by a lot.
New money has been going into shorter durations so I have been taking advantage of that end of the curve too.
My goal is sustainable income to bridge us to SS at age 70, which is in 10 years.
So far my strategy has paid off. We’ve almost doubled our income in the last year.
dobig
Recycles dryer sheets
That's just great Cheesehead! Hoping to follow your path.
Mulligan
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- May 3, 2009
- Messages
- 9,343
We are entering a "Golden Period" for fixed income investing
You and I have paralleled each other largely. I have a lot of plus 6%-7% 2031-35 noncallable ute debt. Mostly lower stack lower IG. I dont personally need high rated debt as long as issuing company has A rated senior unsecured. Im not worried about what I will get in bankruptcy because the companies aren’t going to be bankrupt, so Im personally fine with the lower cap stack.
You and I have paralleled each other largely. I have a lot of plus 6%-7% 2031-35 noncallable ute debt. Mostly lower stack lower IG. I dont personally need high rated debt as long as issuing company has A rated senior unsecured. Im not worried about what I will get in bankruptcy because the companies aren’t going to be bankrupt, so Im personally fine with the lower cap stack.
- Status
Similar threads
