What probability of success did you retire at (or plan to retire at)?

[AvidGolfer80]

Hi I am new to this forum and searched for this topic not only on this forum but also the web. It seems like there is no general consensus for retirement and probability of success level but it all really depends on comfort level. I know that there is no magic number since anything can happen in the future.

I was wondering for those who have already retired or plan to retire soon, what was your probability of success before you started to FIRE.

I also put a poll in and thought the results would be helpful.

 

[travelover]

150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.

 

[AvidGolfer80]

150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.

That sounds like a good approach. I should of added something like that to my poll.

 

[musher]

What does 150% mean? I've seen others say things like this, but it makes no sense to me. If success is not running out of money, then how can you ever do better than 100% Do you mean 1.5 times the amount of money that would yield 100% success rate in something like firecalc or what...

 

[REWahoo]

I was wondering for those who have already retired or plan to retire soon, what was your probability of success before you started to FIRE.

I think it is obvious to most of us, but you do mean "as shown by FIRECalc", right?

 

[stepford]

150% . Pension covers my expenses, SS provides mad money, portfolio is long term care insurance and then some.

Similar for me. 100% in all calculators was a requirement, but also used a spend rate well in excess of what I actually expected. The upshot is that I retired 3-5 years later than I probably could have, but at a much reduced level of worry. This may or may not be a worthwhile trade for many, but I had just recently been through a halving of my assets (and subsequent recovery) during the Great Recession and was ill inclined to take chances.

 

[AvidGolfer80]

I think it is obvious to most of us, but you do mean "as shown by FIRECalc", right?

Yes

 

[AvidGolfer80]

Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%

 

[Dtail]

It was important to me to have 100% success as defined by Firecalc, not to mention other calculators.
Some folks don't pay much attention to the calculators, but also many of these folks have a high % of secured income.

 

[travelover]

Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%

Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.

 

[pjigar]

I am planning for 100% success with portfolio never dropping below initial value (inflation adjusted) i.e. multigenerational perpetual retirement.

 

[Dtail]

Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.

At least it should be a van.

 

[REWahoo]

Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%

There have been several. Many left the forum when they returned to work.

 

[W2R]

When I was planning retirement, I was thinking that about 95% would be a good goal.

After I retired (in 2009) the market has simply soared. Now, FIRECalc tells me I could be spending several times what I originally planned on spending, and still be at 100%.

I guess I won the lottery when it comes to SORR (Sequence of Returns Risk).

 

[AvidGolfer80]

There have been several. Many left the forum when they returned to work.

For those who chose 100%.... are we talking about the bare minimum to reach 100% (based on the number of years, yearly withdrawal and size of the nest egg) or far exceeding it?

Thanks

 

[AvidGolfer80]

When I was planning retirement, I was thinking that about 95% would be a good goal.

After I retired (in 2009) the market has simply soared. Now, FIRECalc tells me I could be spending several times what I originally planned on spending, and still be at 100%.

I guess I won the lottery when it comes to SORR (Sequence of Returns Risk).

lets hope this happens to all of us

 

[tb001]

We were at low 90s when we initially planned, but have a significant amount of our net worth tied up in RE. Assuming we sold our current home in 15-20 yrs and bought something more retirement friendly we would have been ~95%.

Since then DH has continued part time work and the market has done well by us, so last I checked we’re now at 96% without selling the house, which is nice. We do have a decent chunk of discretionary expenses in there though, so can cut if necessary.

We are almost 100% reliant on our investments for income, which is very different than if we had a pension. We do include some SS income in that.

 

[Gumby]

I waited for 200%, which I define as doubling my actual expenses and still getting a 100% out of FIRECalc.

 

[USGrant1962]

I ~110% by comparing my portfolio to the 100% starting portfolio value in FIRECalc. But that included a bunch of conservative assumptions as well.

I'm now about 150%

 

[Andre1969]

Those people aren't on this forum, they are sleeping in their cars down by the river.

Depends on whether they retired in 1973, 1974, or 1975

 

[SecondCor521]

I originally planned on retiring at 100% success in FIREcalc based on my most recent six months of expenses annualized and the rest of the data entries as close as I could make them to my actual situation.

About that time the job was still going well and I learned about Roth conversion ladders and decided to do that instead of 72(t). So I then added a requirement that I have five years of expenses accessible, which in my case was the value of my taxable account plus the value of my Roth contributions.

Since retiring in 2016, I've realized a few things: (a) I spend less when I'm not stressed by work, (b) I don't need that much to be happy, (c) I have flexibility and creativity that could be employed if needed, and (d) I have some non-porfolio income that is various and varied and not 100% reliable but does contribute a measurable amount in aggregate over time.

I continue to run FIREcalc periodically, and would personally feel comfortable with as low as a 95% success rate mostly because I believe personally that the future will economically be somewhat better than the past.

When I run FIREcalc now with my actual numbers and I solve for 95% success, it says I can spend about 2x what I am currently spending.

...

There is a guy on another forum who advocates for a 50% success rate. His logic, as best I can understand it, is that 100% is overkill because retiring at 50% success gives you the average outcome, which is to have enough money. I don't buy the logic and think it is flawed, but he's out there recommending it. He's still working though.

 

[Time2]

I retired 4 years ago with 126% however that didn't include SS. So I added SS into Firecalc and then it dropped my needed nest egg until it was just at 100% success, I now have 280% more than needed. But that was 4 years ago, the number today is 395.5% Part of that is the low spend rate, and part is we were long term good savers. We didn't retire until I was 61yrs old.
We need to learn how to spend money! I'll go look at "blow that dough", see if I can get some ideas.

 

[Palmtree]

When we retired over 5 years ago we could squeak by on the Pension's amount or we could squeak by on just our investment account. Combined, we were in the comfortable range. Since then the market has done very well. Now we are more than fine.

 

[jollystomper]

Definitely over 100%. I was able to reach my goal of a planned SWR of less than 2.5%. Having a pension helped, as well as a job I liked so I did not the desire and angst to want to leave it ASAP. I did not include SS, so when that hits pension + SS will cover expenses for both of us as well as the survivor.Our actual SWR has been closer to 1%, which includes paying off the mortgage this year.

 

[braumeister]

Now I am wondering if there is anyone on this forum or know of someone who retired at a very low probability? 80% 70% 60% or even 50%

When I retired 19 years ago, I had never heard of a retirement calculator. I'm sure there were some around, but they weren't on my radar.

I simply looked at my situation and made a "seat of the pants" calculation that I would be fine unless TSHTF.

So far, so good.