haha
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
When I look back to fall of '08 I think I must have been asleep. I was so used to crummy valuations on decent stocks that when they got a bit better I was like the high school boy who unexpectedly got led into the bedroom. Only I got no second chance.
My all-equity or equity-like portfolio was down 40% at its worst, in November '08 then again in early March of this year, when compared against its max value in Oct '07. Today, it is still down 25%. (Maybe 7% or so of this is living expenses, but wherever it went it is gone.)
So to get whole, I need a 33% gain. Definitely we will see 33% gains, probably sooner than later. (I mean within 2 years or so.)
But from what level will that 33% gain start? Today’s level? Or will we have another thud down, from which I would need much more than any 33% to get even?
I treat maybe half of my holdings as "will not sell unless something is wrong", but that still leaves 1/2 that I could trade. 1/3 or so of my port is in an IRA, and I could sell it out completely with no tax and little transaction costs. The other 2/3 is taxable, but I think my gains could be offset more or less completely with losses that linger in the account.
The thing is, I see most of what I own as attractively priced, at least compared to anything I have encountered in the last 10 or 15 years, save perhaps REITs and tobacco stocks around the millennium. Against that is the reality that if it is attractively priced now, what the heck was it one short month ago when the quotes were much lower?
Also it produces more income than cash or intermediate term treasuries. That can be a false consideration though, as the drawdown I experienced could take me a long way even at 1% interest rates. Income isn't much when compared to violent capital depreciation.
I probably would not consider anything at this point other than holding, but being down 40% was a real pain, and I am not so sure that I like being down 25% either. Also, we are nearing the "sell in May and go away" date that has too often been accurate. I have already jettisoned all junk except of course the board favorites ISM and OSM, as well as one bulk shipper and one terrible bank. Other than ISM/OSM these were (or are now) small positions not worth selling, and definitely worth keeping for recoveries that I believe are possible though perhaps not likely.
Perhaps others are thinking this same way, or wondering along the same lines. Ideas and opinions?
Ha
My all-equity or equity-like portfolio was down 40% at its worst, in November '08 then again in early March of this year, when compared against its max value in Oct '07. Today, it is still down 25%. (Maybe 7% or so of this is living expenses, but wherever it went it is gone.)
So to get whole, I need a 33% gain. Definitely we will see 33% gains, probably sooner than later. (I mean within 2 years or so.)
But from what level will that 33% gain start? Today’s level? Or will we have another thud down, from which I would need much more than any 33% to get even?
I treat maybe half of my holdings as "will not sell unless something is wrong", but that still leaves 1/2 that I could trade. 1/3 or so of my port is in an IRA, and I could sell it out completely with no tax and little transaction costs. The other 2/3 is taxable, but I think my gains could be offset more or less completely with losses that linger in the account.
The thing is, I see most of what I own as attractively priced, at least compared to anything I have encountered in the last 10 or 15 years, save perhaps REITs and tobacco stocks around the millennium. Against that is the reality that if it is attractively priced now, what the heck was it one short month ago when the quotes were much lower?
Also it produces more income than cash or intermediate term treasuries. That can be a false consideration though, as the drawdown I experienced could take me a long way even at 1% interest rates. Income isn't much when compared to violent capital depreciation.
I probably would not consider anything at this point other than holding, but being down 40% was a real pain, and I am not so sure that I like being down 25% either. Also, we are nearing the "sell in May and go away" date that has too often been accurate. I have already jettisoned all junk except of course the board favorites ISM and OSM, as well as one bulk shipper and one terrible bank. Other than ISM/OSM these were (or are now) small positions not worth selling, and definitely worth keeping for recoveries that I believe are possible though perhaps not likely.
Perhaps others are thinking this same way, or wondering along the same lines. Ideas and opinions?
Ha