Where are we in the stock market cycle?

UnrealizedPotential said:
One thing I have noticed is investors unwillingness to push the SP500 index much past the 2090 range. My guess is they are looking for better earnings to justify higher prices at this level. If so, they should. We have been in the 2090 range quite a bit, it never seems to go much beyond that. I think that is healthy for the market. It tells me that earnings matter to investors.
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We were in the 2090 trading range from Dec 2014 until last week when it broke above that and has managed to close above it since. Two different trading ranges.
 
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audreyh1 said:
We were in the 2090 trading range from Dec 2014 until last week when it broke above that and has managed to close above it since. Two different trading ranges.
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I know. I wrote it hasn't gone much beyond that. I did not say it hasn't gone past it. At any rate when it did reach 2100 it did not last long. Where it goes from here is anybody's guess.
 
UnrealizedPotential said:
I know. I wrote it hasn't gone much beyond that. I did not say it hasn't gone past it. At any rate when it did reach 2100 it did not last long. Where it goes from here is anybody's guess.
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Yes, it's definitely too early to tell what the new range is.

Grantham warned a few months ago of dire consequences once we reached 2150 - but who knows!
 
Oh, is that the reason for the pop this afternoon?

Of course it could work out just like the Ukraine ceasefire did.
 
mathjak107 said:
the problem with the i will get back in later when things drop for most it requires two very different personality traits in one person.

the person who gets out during a run up to play it save and potentially leaves gains on the table is generally the nervous nellie type.

all justified and okay .

however the personality type to buy back in during or after a bad drop takes nerves and lots of pucker factor to do.

afterall , you bailed just thinking about a drop so how are you going to act when things look so poor around you and the market is falling ?

odds are few can pull this off because they do not have twin personality's .
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I would say the problem is when you're wrong about the market dropping. Timing it right is brutally tough. The market will gladly leave you behind.
 
audreyh1 said:
Oh, is that the reason for the pop this afternoon?
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Either that, or the announcement that Warren Buffet is now a member of a motorcycle gang.
.
.

82a25479-3ec3-4255-8f96-df9d6bb29180.img
 
audreyh1 said:
You will occasionally lose money. There is no way around that. If you have a diversified portfolio, over longer periods of time you will very likely not lose money. You can avoid the more volatile assets, but even the less volatile assets occasionally lose money. If you hang in there, they usually recover.
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Three steps forward, one step back for...what?... over a hundred years?
 
The market is exactly where it wants us to be. WheeeeUmphArgh.
 
marko said:
Three steps forward, one step back for...what?... over a hundred years?
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More like 20, if I understand your question. Well, except for Japan.............

It's probably more like 10 years.
 
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audreyh1 said:
OK - we still have a little breathing room:
Jeremy Grantham's Bubble Watch Update: "S&P To 2250 Before It Crashes" | Zero Hedge
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Got his 2-Sigma on:

"Recall that back in May, Grantham so far accurately predicted that on the back of central bank liquidity, the overstretched market will stretch even further "at least enough to drive the market to its 2-sigma level of 2,250 and perhaps a fair bit beyond... And although nothing is certain in the market,*this is exactly what I believe will happen." "

I am in awe of that 'and perhaps a fair bit beyond.'
 
I suspect we're late mid market, but then it could plunge 30% in the next 6 months and not surprise me.
I'm about to harvest gains to move the stock allocation back 3%, but I'm waiting a few weeks to see if the market will do it for me. I just went outside the allocation band (66% stocks.)
 
W2R said:
Another all time high portfolio/net worth today. This market is simply amazing! :D
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And yet another today. :dance:

RobLJ said:
I suspect we're late mid market, but then it could plunge 30% in the next 6 months and not surprise me.
I'm about to harvest gains to move the stock allocation back 3%, but I'm waiting a few weeks to see if the market will do it for me. I just went outside the allocation band (66% stocks.)
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We have been going up, and up, and up, for so long. Like you, I wouldn't be surprised to see the market drop quite a bit eventually. But the timing - - I can never get that part right, so I don't try to any more.
 
30%!!!!!!

OK - I know it can happen. I've seen that movie before!!! :eek:

Waiting for the stock market to do your rebalancing for you kind of defeats the purpose, LOL!!!
 
OK, I post this maybe too often but it's my reminder that sometimes trees do grow to the skies. :dance: Also what came after that red line? Hint: 1990's.

2v8r79e.jpg
 
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Rick_Head said:
Cummon, where's the W... word?
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Already posted it, less than 2 weeks ago! It didn't "take", though. :D And the market has soared dramatically since then. :dance:

W2R said:
O.M.G. I just got today's fund values and they are through the roof. I'm trying, I'm trying, but joy is just bursting out everywhere! Look out, can't help myself... Wh... Wh....

WHEEE!!!!!

I mean really, isn't this great? As often as we are gloomy about dropping markets, and as often as we read articles and threads about how we are in the beginning of a worse bear market than ever before, LOOK AT THIS MARKET TODAY! It's just wonderful. I wonder how long it can keep this up. Just look at how much you are up since the first week in January! :D Imagine what you could do with THAT in your pocket!

I don't know about you all, but I'm going to celebrate. In fact, my whole city will be celebrating with me all weekend clear through Tuesday, with parades all over town and crazy revelers everywhere.

:dance: :clap: :dance:
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Honestly, even if the market duplicated the 2008-2009 crash tomorrow, I think many of us would still be sitting pretty after the gains of the past 5-6 years.
 
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target2019 said:
I don't see a red line, but I know the punch line...

Thanks for posting this.
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That was the red line from the Aug 82 SP500 low. This chart follows it out to about Nov 88. But what followed was the 1990's, a great time to be in equities. Not saying this will happen again ... but maybe if "she who will not be named (but starts with a W)" doesn't ruin it all ;).
 
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Lsbcal said:
That was the red line from the Aug 82 SP500 low. This chart follows it out to about Nov 88. But what followed was the 1990's, a great time to be in equities. Not saying this will happen again ... but maybe if "she who will not be named (but starts with a W)" doesn't ruin it all ;).
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LOL. History is gonna repeat itself, so no 'W'.

But 'C' beats 'B' and then we go Wheeee!
 
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