All- I believe this will be my last post to this forum. There just doesn't seem to be an atmosphere here to allow honest discussion of idea's and thoughts. It appears to me that any one trying to sound some warning bells gets attacked. I'm not saying we are going into a depression, but anyone who believes that we are not in a recession is delueding themselves. Yes- I am aware that the current economy doesn't meet the technical definition of a recession. That is part of the problem: I honestly believe the government has changed the statistical formulas so that we can't have GDP contraction. Same with unemployement. Every time the government changes the formula, the unemployement rate goes down. I think that makes any comparison of unemployement rates meaningless. The incompetance of this administation cannot be overstated. The incompetance runs to every aspect: The CIA claims WMD are a slam dunk. Oops. None there. Lets give Tenet the Medal of Freedom rather than admit the mistake. And it just goes on: How did the CIA not see 30,000 Russin troops massing on the Georgian border? That was a complete surprise to the President? If it wasn't a surprise, why was he in Bejing instead of the situation room? What did we learn in Katrina and Ike? The government cannot respond to help citizens in a crises. As a californian, I have no illusions about the response for an earthquake: I am on my own. I'm ready for it. How can I not be aware of the problems with the economy and the governments total lack of response.
This was a posted point on this thread:
"Pretty much my point. So in 1993-1996 and from 2004-2006 when unemployment was higher than that, did you feel that unemployment was a major factor in our economy and our economic future? Does anyone even remember unemployment as an issue during those time periods?"
Yes I do. I remember article after article on the "Jobless Recovery", and how that was going to hurt us in the long run. Jobs going overseas doesn't mean good news for us. People didn't have good paying jobs and used thier houses as ATM's. Now the HELOC's are gone and 401K's are being depleted. The 25% drop in the market means that the 401K's are now almost gone. Where do we turn next? A drastic drop in the standard of living in this country. Do I want this to happen? No. Am I preparing for it? Yes.
Statistics are tough things. Someone on this thread said this: the employees that lost thier pensions are only .15% of the population and thats not significant.
That is a statistically fallacious argument. Yes .15% of the total population, but how much of the working population? And more important: what percentage of the PBGC's remaining assets? What I mean is this: The Leman Brothers employees will take a significant portion of the remaining PBGC assets. The PBGC is broke. I know because DW gets a statement cataloging 15 years worth of hard work for UAL for pennies on the dollar. Where is the PBGC going to get more money? Taxpayers. Maybe.
We can make the same argument on the FDIC. The total number of banks failing is small. It only takes afew to deplete the FDIC. Once the FDIC is gone, there will be a run on banks. I saw an artical on the web to that effect. People need to keep an eye on deposited money. Is that panic? Is that likely? Each person needs to decide. I am arming myself both literally and figuratively. I like the Warren Zevon insurance policy: Lawyers, guns and money. Since I will not be around to reply to all the "conspiracy nut" posts: I'm really not. I don't believe in black helicopters and bugged phones, the NSA eavesdropping program aside. I just believe that the foxes are running the henhouse and we need to hold them to account and be ready for the consequences of our laxness. Here's hoping the market recovers. While I'm at it: here's hoping that the government balances the budget, people start saving more money, someone invents a better solar cell (or cold fusion), and honest people start running the government. Oh well, a man can dream.