Fedup
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I wish I could understand what's been discussed here sometime. It's like rain falling on duck feather or whatever the saying is.
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Absolutely true, the key words being "as long as you have."
I invested a small amount of Google time in this "Meb Faber-type SMA signal" thing and was unable to find any examples where it successfully predicted future market action over a reasonable period.
All true. A majority of people won't put out that effort. That's why a majority of people are never F.I.R.E.'d.Just about all retirees would not be keen on the implementation details:
[restated]
1) [90 seconds of work once a month]
2) thru 5) [a modicum of discipline]
My view would be that trend following systems try to capture momentum in the markets. They are not really predictive but the better ones are trying to quickly capture momentum before other future events occur that have their own momentum affects (possibly in the opposite direction).
Momentum has been studied by academics and Wall Street types. It appears to be an acknowledged force in the markets. Can it be exploited by trading is the question.
This topic probably deserves it's own thread. I think the 10 month SMA and its variants are fine for the pragmatic investor who wants to avoid some of the possibility of a deep bear market in equities. It takes a real commitment. I confess to having my own market timing ideas which are somewhat different then a moving average approach but seek a similar outcome....
Stop looking at SMA timing as a scheme to beat the market. Look at it as what it is --- a scheme to avoid taking the full brunt of a deep bear market.
People keep looking for esoteric schemes to beat the market, and evaluate *every* strategy -- except buy&hold -- from that perspective.
...
I agree this method seems to make good sense, but this is market timing, which I was trying to exclude from this discussion. Whether I'll try my hand at any market timing or not I don't know. I'm talking here about set-it-and-forget-it AA.
Well, I guess I don't see much sematic difference between "beat the market" and a "scheme to shift money away from declining stocks" or "a scheme to avoid taking the brunt of a deep bear market."... I mention that it is an alternative way to implement the the scheme of "shift money away from declining stocks to a safe harbor" than rebalancing stocks/bonds allocation. And the immediate response is that it fails to predict market direction and does not deliver out-performance. ... Stop looking at SMA timing as a scheme to beat the market. Look at it as what it is --- a scheme to avoid taking the full brunt of a deep bear market. ...
Oldshooter, here is a paper that seems to fill your request. Title is Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation
It is by Ferber and is very readable.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=962461
Well, I guess I don't see much sematic difference between "beat the market" and a "scheme to shift money away from declining stocks" or "a scheme to avoid taking the brunt of a deep bear market."
But back to the point, can you direct me somewhere that will show me a track record of this "scheme to shift money away from declining stocks" actually being successful? Real predictions of an unknown future, consistently followed by confirming results.
IIRC, there are a few ER.org members who do something similar.
I think Nords uses home equity as investment leverage but, don't recall the details
That's all correct. We're still >90% equities in our asset allocation and still doing mortgage arbitrage.Nords has spending covered by pensions, so they could get by without income from their investments if necessary. At least that was his situation many years ago.
When someone has all expenses covered by pensions, annuities and/or SS, they are in a different ball game with respect to their investments.
Thanks. I've had an interesting time reading and researching.I guess the difference is in the perspective. ... Faber's classic paper ... https://www.dropbox.com/s/cbzvg74iyeyfwt6/SPX-monthly-1950-2013-and-IUL-test.xls... much better maximum drawdown and better Sortino Ratio, and lower volatility.
And your reasoning?We only do short term bonds.